本文選題：艾滋病　切入點：支持向量機　出處：《中國現(xiàn)代醫(yī)學(xué)雜志》2017年12期

【摘要】：目的探索適合于河南省艾滋病發(fā)病趨勢的預(yù)測模型,準確、快速地預(yù)測未來發(fā)病變化趨勢,為制定艾滋病預(yù)防控制的策略和措施提供參考依據(jù)。方法收集河南省2000~2014年艾滋病發(fā)病率數(shù)據(jù),采用支持向量機模型建立其發(fā)病率預(yù)測模型。其中2000~2013年發(fā)病率數(shù)據(jù)為訓(xùn)練樣本,2014年發(fā)病率數(shù)據(jù)為檢驗樣本。以平均相對誤差作為預(yù)測效果的評價指標。并用該模型對河南省2015~2019年艾滋病的發(fā)病率進行預(yù)測。結(jié)果建立的支持向量機模型的平均相對誤差為0.5512%。經(jīng)預(yù)測,河南省2015~2019年艾滋病的發(fā)病率分別為0.85/10萬、1.84/10萬、1.64/10萬、1.30/10萬、2.01/10萬。結(jié)論支持向量機模型有較高的預(yù)測精度及較小的預(yù)測誤差,適用于河南省艾滋病的發(fā)病率預(yù)測。
[Abstract]:Objective to explore a prediction model suitable for the trend of HIV / AIDS incidence in Henan province, and to predict the trend of future AIDS incidence accurately and quickly, so as to provide a reference for the formulation of HIV / AIDS prevention and control strategies and measures.Methods the data of HIV / AIDS incidence from 2000 to 2014 in Henan Province were collected and the prediction model of AIDS incidence was established by using support vector machine (SVM) model.The incidence data from 2000 to 2013 were training samples, and the incidence data from 2014 were test samples.The average relative error is used as the evaluation index of the prediction effect.The model was used to predict the incidence of AIDS in Henan province from 2015 to 2019.Results the average relative error of the established support vector machine model is 0.5512.It is predicted that the incidence of AIDS in Henan Province from 2015 to 2019 is 0.85 / 100,000 / 100, 000 / 100, 000 / 100, 000 / 100, 000 / 100, 000 or 130 / 100, 000 / 100, 000 or 201 / 100, 000 respectively.Conclusion the support vector machine model has higher prediction accuracy and smaller prediction error, which is suitable for predicting the incidence of AIDS in Henan Province.
【作者單位】： 河南中醫(yī)藥大學(xué);河南中醫(yī)藥大學(xué)第二附屬醫(yī)院;中國科學(xué)院生物物理研究所;
【基金】：河南省軟科學(xué)研究重點項目(No:102400440002) 河南省2010年科技發(fā)展計劃(No:102400440002)
【分類號】：R512.91
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本文編號：1708261