本文關鍵詞：基于體檢隊列的2型糖尿病風險預測模型　出處：《山東大學學報(醫(yī)學版)》2016年09期 　論文類型：期刊論文

  更多相關文章： 型糖尿病 隊列 風險預測模型 體檢

【摘要】：目的構建體檢者2型糖尿病發(fā)病風險預測模型。方法選擇2005年1月至2010年12月在山東大學附屬省立醫(yī)院、山東大學附屬千佛山醫(yī)院體檢中心體檢的非糖尿病者16 715人,隨機選取70%體檢者為訓練組,用于建立Cox預測模型,逐步選擇法進行變量選擇,使用十折交叉驗證法檢驗模型的穩(wěn)定性,根據預后指數制定風險分級;剩余30%的體檢者為校驗組,對模型進行組外驗證,再次評價模型效果。結果觀察期間共新發(fā)生2型糖尿病858例,發(fā)病密度為15.14‰。最終納入模型的變量包括年齡、體質量指數、空腹血糖、甘油三酯、是否患高血壓以及白細胞自然對數;訓練組ROC曲線下面積為0.742(95%CI:0.732~0.752),校驗組ROC曲線下面積為0.760(95%CI:0.748~0.772)。結論建立的2型糖尿病風險預測模型在體檢者中有較好的預測能力。
[Abstract]:Objective to establish a model for predicting the risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in physical examiners. Methods from January 2005 to December 2010, we selected the provincial hospital affiliated to Shandong University. A total of 16 715 non-diabetic patients in the physical examination center of Qianfushan Hospital affiliated to Shandong University were selected randomly as training group, which was used to establish Cox prediction model and to select variables by stepwise selection method. The stability of the model was tested by a ten fold cross validation method and the risk classification was determined according to the prognostic index. The remaining 30% physical examination group was the check group, the model was verified outside the group, and the model effect was evaluated again. Results during the observation period, 858 cases of new type 2 diabetes mellitus occurred. The incidence density was 15.14 鈥，

本文編號：1408949