本文選題：孕婦 + 產(chǎn)婦死亡率�。� 參考：《中華疾病控制雜志》2017年09期

【摘要】：目的分析廣西2006-2015年孕產(chǎn)婦死亡率及變化速率,預(yù)測(cè)其發(fā)展趨勢(shì),為科學(xué)制定相關(guān)策略和措施提供理論依據(jù)。方法利用GM(1,1)灰色預(yù)測(cè)模型建立微分動(dòng)態(tài)方程模擬廣西2006-2015年孕產(chǎn)婦死亡率,判斷其動(dòng)態(tài)趨勢(shì),并外延預(yù)測(cè)2016-2018年廣西孕產(chǎn)婦死亡率。結(jié)果孕產(chǎn)婦死亡率灰色GM(1,1)預(yù)測(cè)模型為:x~((1))(k+1)=-322.242e~(-0.079k)+349.402(C=0.187,P=1.000);孕產(chǎn)婦死亡率呈下降趨勢(shì);灰色預(yù)測(cè)模型預(yù)測(cè)符合率90%;下降趨勢(shì)變化速率逐漸降低,2014年以來(lái)趨于平穩(wěn);預(yù)測(cè)2016-2018年廣西孕產(chǎn)婦死亡率分別為12.04/10萬(wàn)、11.12/10萬(wàn)和10.27/10萬(wàn)。結(jié)論近十年廣西孕產(chǎn)婦死亡率下降態(tài)勢(shì)呈現(xiàn)"先快速后平穩(wěn)"的趨勢(shì),預(yù)測(cè)2016-2018年廣西孕產(chǎn)婦死亡率將持續(xù)穩(wěn)步降低。
[Abstract]:Objective to analyze the maternal mortality rate and its changing rate in Guangxi from 2006 to 2015, and to forecast its development trend, and to provide theoretical basis for the scientific formulation of relevant strategies and measures. Methods the differential dynamic equation was established to simulate the maternal mortality rate in Guangxi from 2006 to 2015 by using GM (1 / 1) grey prediction model. The dynamic trend of maternal mortality was judged and the maternal mortality rate was predicted by extension from 2016 to 2018 in Guangxi. Results the grey GM (1K1) prediction model of maternal mortality was: 1% x ~ (1) (1) (k 1) -322.242 e- 0.079 k (C0. 187 P0. 000), the maternal mortality rate showed a downward trend, the prediction coincidence rate of the grey forecast model was 90%, the decreasing trend rate gradually decreased, and the change rate of decline trend gradually decreased, and tended to be stable since 2014. The maternal mortality rate in Guangxi is predicted to be 12.04 / 100,000 or 11.12 / 100, 000 and 10.27 / 100, 000, respectively, between 2016 and 2018. Conclusion the decreasing trend of maternal mortality in Guangxi in the past ten years is "fast first, then stable", and it is predicted that the maternal mortality rate in Guangxi will continue to decrease steadily from 2016 to 2018.
【作者單位】： 廣西科技大學(xué)第一附屬醫(yī)院教學(xué)科研部;廣西醫(yī)科大學(xué)公共衛(wèi)生學(xué)院流行病與衛(wèi)生統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)教研室;廣西壯族自治區(qū)婦幼保健院保健部;
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：R714.66

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