【摘要】：目的研究血清炎癥因子水平在重癥手足口病(HFMD)及手足口病患者重癥天數(shù)判斷中的作用。方法使用受試者工作曲線(ROC曲線)分析炎癥因子水平與重癥手足口病關(guān)系,并使用曲線下面積(AUC)評(píng)價(jià)判別效果。采用分類(lèi)和回歸樹(shù)(CART)模型和支持向量機(jī)(SVM)模型對(duì)手足口病患者重癥天數(shù)進(jìn)行判斷,并使用交叉驗(yàn)證評(píng)價(jià)模型泛化能力。結(jié)果 ROC曲線分析結(jié)果表明白細(xì)胞介素-4(IL-4)對(duì)于判斷輕重癥的效果最好(AUC:0.989),IL-6、腫瘤壞死因子-α(TNF-α)、IL-10、干擾素-γ(INF-γ)和IL-17的效果依次遞減,AUC值分別為0.933、0.898、0.882、0.853和0.523。CART模型和SVM模型對(duì)于手足口病患者重癥天數(shù)判斷的一致率分別為87.69%和95.38%,進(jìn)行5折交叉驗(yàn)證得到模型的一致率分別為77.49%和81.40%。結(jié)論使用血清炎癥因子水平對(duì)于手足口病重癥有很好的判別效果,且對(duì)于判斷手足口病患者重癥天數(shù)也有較好的效果。
[Abstract]:Objective to study the role of serum inflammatory factors in severe hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) and severe days of hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD). Methods the relationship between inflammatory factors and severe hand, foot and mouth disease was analyzed by receiver operating curve (ROC curve), and the discriminant effect was evaluated by area (AUC) under the curve. Classification and regression tree (CART) model and support vector machine (SVM) model were used to judge severe days in patients with foot-mouth disease, and cross-validation was used to evaluate the generalization ability of the model. Results the results of ROC curve analysis showed that interleukin-4 (IL-4) had the best effect on judging mild and severe cases (AUC:0.989), IL-6, tumor necrosis factor-偽 (TNF- 偽), IL-10,. The effect of interferon-緯 (INF- 緯) and IL-17 decreased in turn. The AUC values were 0.933, 0.898, 0.882, respectively. The concordance rates of 0.853 with 0.523.CART model and SVM model were 87.69% and 95.38% for severe days of hand, foot and mouth disease, respectively. The consistency rate of the model is 77.49% and 81.40% respectively by 50% discount cross-validation. Conclusion the use of serum inflammatory factors has a good discriminating effect on the severe cases of hand, foot and mouth disease, and also has a good effect on judging the severe days of the patients with hand, foot and mouth disease.
【作者單位】： 鄭州大學(xué)公共衛(wèi)生學(xué)院;新鄉(xiāng)醫(yī)學(xué)院公共衛(wèi)生學(xué)院;鄭州市兒童醫(yī)院感染性疾病科;
【基金】：國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目(No.81573205,81172740)
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：R725.1

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