本文選題：兒童棘球蚴病 + 遙感��； 參考：《中國疾病預防控制中心》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：棘球蚴病是由寄生于人或者動物體內的棘球絳蟲的幼蟲引起的人獸共患寄生蟲病。在我國,棘球蚴病有細粒棘球蚴病和多房棘球蚴病兩種,主要流行于西部牧區(qū),嚴重影響了人群健康和經(jīng)濟發(fā)展。已有研究表明,棘球蚴病的流行與生物因素、環(huán)境因素、社會因素等有關,本研究以棘球蚴病的高發(fā)地區(qū)青海省果洛州作為研究現(xiàn)場,結合RS/GIS技術、logistic回歸分析、貝葉斯空間模型,以兒童血清學調查資料為基礎,探索棘球蚴病流行的影響因素和空間分布規(guī)律,為棘球蚴病的防治工作提供參考依據(jù)。 本研究首先對果洛州兒童棘球蚴病的流行情況進行了調查,通過分層整群抽樣方法抽取了果洛州37個鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)6-12歲兒童共7445名作為調查對象,調查兒童全部接受多普勒彩超和血清學檢查(ELISA)。調查結果：果洛州37個鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)兒童棘球蚴病總患病率為2.47%,患病率平均水平(中位數(shù))為2.11%,患病率最高的鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)為12.41%,最低的鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)為O：37個鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)兒童血清總陽性率為21.24%,血清陽性率的平均水平(中位數(shù))為21.21%,血清陽性率最高的鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)為45.04%,最低的鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)為4.82%。 然后,收集果洛州各鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)的生物因素數(shù)據(jù),包括戶均犬數(shù)、犬均羊數(shù)、犬均牛數(shù)。同時,對收集的果洛州紙質地圖進行矢量化,制作成果洛州行政區(qū)劃電子地圖,結合下載的SRTM3數(shù)據(jù)和MODIS數(shù)據(jù),提取各鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)高程、地表溫度(LST)和歸一化植被指數(shù)(NDVI)三個環(huán)境因素數(shù)據(jù)。以鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)為單位的兒童棘球蚴病血清學檢查(ELISA)數(shù)據(jù)為基礎,采用logistic回歸分析,分析了兒童血清陽性率與生物因素、環(huán)境因素的關系。結果顯示：犬均羊數(shù)、高程與兒童血清陽性率正相關(回歸系數(shù)分別為0.062和0.485),LST、NDVI與兒童血清陽性率負相關(回歸系數(shù)分別為-0.630和-0.607),即犬均羊數(shù)、高程、LST、NDVI均對棘球蚴病的流行有影響。 最后,運用區(qū)域數(shù)據(jù)的貝葉斯空間模型,對果洛州以鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)為單位的兒童棘球蚴病血清陽性率數(shù)據(jù)、犬均羊數(shù)、高程、LST、NDVI進行了分析。影響因素分析結果與logistic回歸分析結果一致,犬均羊數(shù)、高程與兒童血清陽性率正相關(回歸系數(shù)分別為0.043和0.000159),LST、NDVI與兒童血清陽性率負相關(回歸系數(shù)分別為-0.02214和-0.83935),四個指標均對棘球蚴病的流行有影響。空間分析結果顯示,空間相關系數(shù)為0.343,95%可信區(qū)間(95%CI)為：-0.047-0.640,空間相關系數(shù)的95%CI包含0,空間相關系數(shù)沒有統(tǒng)計學意義,說明以鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)為單位的兒童棘球蚴病血清陽性率空間自相關性不強。 本研究綜合利用了RS/GIS技術、logistic回歸分析、貝葉斯空間模型,以鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)為單位對棘球蚴病流行的影響因素進行了分析,探索了棘球蚴病分布的空間規(guī)律,為棘球蚴病的預防控制提供了參考依據(jù)。2中國疾病預防控制中心碩士學位論文
[Abstract]:Echinococcosis is a zoonotic parasitic disease caused by the larva of Echinococcus solium parasitic on humans or animals. In China, there are two kinds of echinococcosis, echinococcosis and multilocularis echinococcosis, which are mainly prevalent in western pastoral areas, which seriously affect the health and economic development of the population. Previous studies have shown that the prevalence of echinococcosis is related to biological factors, environmental factors, social factors, etc. In this study, Guoluo County, Qinghai Province with high incidence of echinococcosis, was used as the research site, and logistic regression analysis was performed with RS / GIS technique. The Bayesian spatial model, based on the serological survey data of children, was used to explore the influencing factors and spatial distribution of echinococcosis. In this study, we investigated the prevalence of echinococcosis in children in Guoluo County, and selected 7445 children aged 6 to 12 years old from 37 towns in Guoluo County by stratified cluster sampling. All the children were examined by Doppler ultrasound and serological examination. The results showed that the total prevalence of echinococcosis in children in 37 towns of Guoro County was 2.47, the average prevalence rate was 2.11, the highest prevalence rate was 12.41 and the lowest was O: the total positive rate of children in 37 towns was 21.24g, the serum level was 21.24g. The average positive rate (median) was 21.21, the highest serum positive rate was 45.04 and the lowest was 4.82. The data of biological factors including the average number of dogs, the average number of dogs and sheep, and the number of cattle per dog were collected in each town of Guoluo County. At the same time, the collected paper map of Guoluo County was vectorized, and the electronic map of the administrative division of Guoluo County was made. Combined with the downloaded SRTM3 data and MODIS data, the height of each township was extracted. Land surface temperature (LST) and normalized vegetation index (NDVI). The relationship between serum positive rate and biological and environmental factors of children with echinococcosis was analyzed by logistic regression analysis based on the data of Echinococcosis serological examination in villages and towns. The results showed that there was a positive correlation between the average number of sheep in dogs, height and the positive rate of serum in children (regression coefficients were 0.062 and 0.485, respectively) and the positive rates of serum were negatively correlated (regression coefficients were -0.630 and -0.607 respectively, that is, the average number of sheep in dogs). The prevalence of echinococcosis was affected by LST-NDVI. Finally, using Bayesian spatial model of regional data, the data of serum positive rate of echinococcosis of children in Guoluo County, the number of average sheep in dogs and the height of LSTNDVI were analyzed. The result of influencing factor analysis was consistent with that of logistic regression analysis. There was a positive correlation between elevation and serum positive rate of children (the regression coefficients were 0.043 and 0.000159, respectively) and the positive rate of serum in children was negatively correlated (the regression coefficients were -0.02214 and -0.83935, respectively). All the four indexes had an effect on the prevalence of echinococcosis. The results of spatial analysis show that the spatial correlation coefficient is 0.34395% confidence interval (CI) is 0: -0.047-0.640, the spatial correlation coefficient contains 0, and the spatial correlation coefficient is not statistically significant. The results showed that the spatial autocorrelation of serum positive rate of children with echinococcosis was not strong. The logistic regression analysis and Bayesian spatial model were used in this study. The factors affecting the prevalence of echinococcosis in villages and towns were analyzed, and the spatial law of the distribution of echinococcosis was explored, which provided a reference for the prevention and control of echinococcosis. 2. The master's degree thesis of China Center for Disease Prevention and Control.
【學位授予單位】：中國疾病預防控制中心
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：R725.1

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