小兒細(xì)菌性肺炎的高效識(shí)別模型及臨床價(jià)值研究
本文選題:肺炎 切入點(diǎn):細(xì)菌性 出處:《中國(guó)全科醫(yī)學(xué)》2017年03期
【摘要】:背景目前國(guó)內(nèi)尚缺乏對(duì)發(fā)熱就診的肺炎患兒是否為細(xì)菌感染做出快速判斷的簡(jiǎn)易方法,容易引起漏診及抗生素的濫用。目的建立預(yù)判發(fā)熱就診的肺炎患兒是否為細(xì)菌感染的簡(jiǎn)單模型。方法回顧性選取2012—2013年溫州醫(yī)科大學(xué)附屬第二醫(yī)院育英兒童醫(yī)院符合納入標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的以發(fā)熱就診的肺炎患兒538例為研究對(duì)象。根據(jù)疾病原因?qū)⒒純悍譃榧?xì)菌感染組(133例)和非細(xì)菌感染組(405例)。從538例患兒中隨機(jī)選取54例作為驗(yàn)證集(細(xì)菌性肺炎13例,非細(xì)菌性肺炎41例)。收集患兒一般資料、實(shí)驗(yàn)室檢測(cè)結(jié)果,建立5個(gè)診斷細(xì)菌性肺炎的模型〔F1=C反應(yīng)蛋白(CRP)×降鈣素原(PCT)、F2=CRP2×PCT、F3=CRP×PCT2、F4=性別權(quán)重×就診季節(jié)權(quán)重×喘息癥狀系數(shù)×(CRP×PCT)、F5=性別權(quán)重×就診季節(jié)權(quán)重×喘息癥狀系數(shù)×(CRP×PCT2)〕,繪制其診斷細(xì)菌性肺炎的ROC曲線(xiàn),確定最優(yōu)模型。結(jié)果兩組患兒性別、就診季節(jié)、寒戰(zhàn)發(fā)生率、呼吸加快發(fā)生率、喘息發(fā)生率、嘔吐發(fā)生率、腹瀉發(fā)生率、哭鬧發(fā)生率、干Up音發(fā)生率、濕Up音發(fā)生率、發(fā)熱持續(xù)天數(shù)、最高體溫、白細(xì)胞計(jì)數(shù)(WBC)、CRP水平、PCT水平比較,差異有統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)意義(P0.05)。單獨(dú)CRP診斷細(xì)菌性肺炎的ROC曲線(xiàn)下面積(AUC)為0.969,95%CI(0.955,0.979),臨界值為48.5 mg/L,靈敏度為88.0%,特異度為93.6%;單獨(dú)PCT診斷細(xì)菌性肺炎的AUC為0.974,95%CI(0.959,0.989),臨界值為0.5 g/L,靈敏度為92.5%,特異度為84.0%;F1診斷細(xì)菌性肺炎的AUC為0.983,95%CI(0.973,0.993),臨界值為17.4,靈敏度為92.5%,特異度為96.3%;F2診斷細(xì)菌性肺炎的AUC為0.981,95%CI(0.971,0.992),臨界值為241.1,靈敏度為97.7%,特異度為90.6%;F3診斷細(xì)菌性肺炎的AUC為0.983,95%CI(0.973,0.993),臨界值為6.3,靈敏度為94.0%,特異度為96.3%;F4診斷細(xì)菌性肺炎的AUC為0.987,95%CI(0.980,0.996),臨界值為1.1,靈敏度為94.7%,特異度為95.6%;F5診斷細(xì)菌性肺炎的AUC為0.988,95%CI(0.981,0.997),臨界值為0.2,靈敏度為97.7%,特異度為94.3%。根據(jù)單獨(dú)CRP、單獨(dú)PCT、F5的臨界值,對(duì)驗(yàn)證集患兒進(jìn)行診斷,結(jié)果顯示,單獨(dú)CRP診斷驗(yàn)證集患兒細(xì)菌性肺炎的靈敏度為76.9%,特異度為97.6%,正確率為92.6%;單獨(dú)PCT診斷驗(yàn)證集患兒細(xì)菌性肺炎的靈敏度為84.6%,特異度為97.6%,正確率為94.4%;F5診斷驗(yàn)證集患兒細(xì)菌性肺炎的靈敏度為92.3%,特異度為97.6%,正確率為96.3%。結(jié)論對(duì)于因發(fā)熱就診的肺炎患兒,可以通過(guò)F5模型〔F5=性別權(quán)重×就診季節(jié)權(quán)重×喘息癥狀系數(shù)×(CRP×PCT2)〕計(jì)算得到相應(yīng)的結(jié)果,若結(jié)果大于0.2,可診斷細(xì)菌性肺炎,建議早期使用抗生素治療。
[Abstract]:Background at present, there is a lack of a simple method for the rapid diagnosis of bacterial infection in children with pneumonia. Objective to establish a simple model for predicting bacterial infection in children with febrile pneumonia. Methods A retrospective study was conducted to select Yuying Children's Hospital of the second affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University in 2012-2013. A total of 538 children with pneumonia with fever were included in the study. According to the causes of the disease, the children were divided into bacterial infection group (133 cases) and non-bacterial infection group (405 cases). From 538 children, 54 cases were randomly selected as the validation set. (13 cases of bacterial pneumonia). General data and laboratory results of 41 cases of non-bacterial pneumonia were collected. To establish five models for the diagnosis of bacterial pneumonia: CRP) 脳 procalcitonin, CRP2 脳 PCT _ 2, CRP 脳 PCT _ 2F _ 4 = sex weight 脳 seasonal weight 脳 wheezing symptom coefficient 脳 sex weight 脳 seasonal weight 脳 wheezing symptom coefficient 脳 panting symptom coefficient 脳 CRP 脳 PCT _ 2, and its diagnostic bacteria were plotted. ROC curve of pneumonia, Results Sex, consultation season, shivering rate, respiratory acceleration rate, wheezing rate, vomiting rate, diarrhea rate, crying rate, dry up sound rate, wet up sound rate were determined in the two groups. The duration of fever, the highest body temperature, the WBCU CRP level and the PCT level were compared. The area under the ROC curve of CRP alone for the diagnosis of bacterial pneumonia was 0.969 ~ 95%, the critical value was 48.5 mg / L, the sensitivity was 88.0 and the specificity was 93.60.The AUC of single PCT for the diagnosis of bacterial pneumonia was 0.9749% CI0.95999, the critical value was 0.5 g / L, the sensitivity was 92.5 mg / L, the sensitivity was 92.5 mg / L, the critical value was 0.5 g / L, and the sensitivity was 92.5 mg / L, respectively. The AUC for diagnosing bacterial pneumonia in F _ 1 was 0.983C _ (95), the critical value was 17.4, the sensitivity was 92.5, the AUC for F _ 2 was 0.981C _ (95) CI 0.9922.The critical value was 241.1, the sensitivity was 97.7m, the AUC for diagnosis of bacterial pneumonia was 0.98395 C _ (3) 0.9730.993T, the critical value for diagnosis of bacterial pneumonia was 0.98395 C _ (2), the critical value was 0.9921, the critical value was 97.7%, and the specificity was 0.98395% (0.9730.993N). The AUC, the critical value, the sensitivity, the specificity, the critical value, the sensitivity, the AUC, the critical value, the sensitivity, the AUC, the critical value and the specificity for the diagnosis of bacterial pneumonia were 0.98895CI0.9810.997, 0.98895CI0.991, 0.98895CI0.991, 0.98895CI0.991, 0.98895CI0.991, 0.98895CI0.9810.997and 0.98895CI0.9810.997.The critical value, sensitivity and specificity were 0.98895CI0.9810.997and 0.98895CI0.9810.997. Critical value of individual PCTN F5, The diagnosis of children with validation set showed that, The sensitivity, specificity and accuracy of single CRP diagnostic verification set were 76.9, 97.6and 92.6percent respectively, and the sensitivity, specificity and accuracy of single PCT diagnosis and verification set were 84.6, 97.6and 94.4g respectively. The sensitivity, specificity and accuracy of bacterial pneumonia were 92.3%, 97.6 and 96.3.Conclusion for pneumonia children with fever, the sensitivity is 92.3%, the specificity is 97.6%, and the accuracy rate is 96.3.Conclusion:. The corresponding results can be calculated by F5 model: F5 = sex weight 脳 seasonal weight 脳 wheezing symptom coefficient 脳 CRP 脳 PCT2P). If the result is greater than 0.2, bacterial pneumonia can be diagnosed and antibiotics should be used early.
【作者單位】: 溫州醫(yī)科大學(xué)附屬第二醫(yī)院育英兒童醫(yī)院內(nèi)分泌遺傳代謝科;
【基金】:浙江省溫州市科技局科研基金資助項(xiàng)目(Y20120122)
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】:R725.6
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