【摘要】：隨手機等移動終端設(shè)備的普及,基于移動互聯(lián)網(wǎng)的社交平臺正在逐漸替代傳統(tǒng)平面媒體在輿論導(dǎo)向方面的作用。移動互聯(lián)網(wǎng)絡(luò)所特有的移動性、實時性、自媒體特性,使得網(wǎng)絡(luò)輿論可以快速、廣泛的傳播,也正由于以上特點,基于移動網(wǎng)絡(luò)的網(wǎng)絡(luò)社交平臺中輿情反轉(zhuǎn)事件逐年增高,由此產(chǎn)生的網(wǎng)絡(luò)暴力層出不窮,給政府相關(guān)部門的監(jiān)管帶來較大挑戰(zhàn)。本文在大量研究國內(nèi)外輿論動力學(xué)與復(fù)雜網(wǎng)絡(luò)方面的文獻的基礎(chǔ)上,建立了適應(yīng)移動社交環(huán)境的輿論動力學(xué)模型,并從仿真層面分析了輿論反轉(zhuǎn)的形成原因,最后編寫了輿論傾向性分析平臺,本文主要成果如下:1.總結(jié)了國內(nèi)外學(xué)者對復(fù)雜網(wǎng)絡(luò)建模與輿論動力學(xué)模型的概況,并且針對輿論動力學(xué)有限信任模型進行了詳細介紹與分析。結(jié)合移動互聯(lián)網(wǎng)社交平臺觀點交互現(xiàn)狀,總結(jié)原HK模型缺點,給出改進方向。2.依據(jù)移動互聯(lián)網(wǎng)社交平臺無連邊個體影響情況,提出基于虛擬引力的輿論動力學(xué)模型。并且考慮用戶之間網(wǎng)絡(luò)連接,將發(fā)現(xiàn)的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)平臺觀點交互自然規(guī)律融入其中。體現(xiàn)了真實移動互聯(lián)觀點交互網(wǎng)絡(luò)中的特性,社會人群不是互相隔離的,每個個體間都存在虛擬的聯(lián)系,非連接的節(jié)點之間也會產(chǎn)生觀點的共鳴。3.在基于虛擬引力的輿論動力學(xué)模型基礎(chǔ)上,引入BA無標度網(wǎng)絡(luò)模擬真實移動互聯(lián)網(wǎng)中社交平臺用戶觀點交互網(wǎng)絡(luò),通過不同參數(shù)組合研究輿論反轉(zhuǎn)現(xiàn)象的成因,總結(jié)極端觀點個體數(shù)量對群體觀點演化的影響規(guī)律,對政府機構(gòu)在輿論導(dǎo)向的控制上有一定的現(xiàn)實意義。并且使用真實網(wǎng)絡(luò)數(shù)據(jù)進行模型的驗證,證明本文提出的模型在一定程度上符合真實輿論反轉(zhuǎn)事件。4.搭建輿論傾向性分析平臺。利用基于Python2.7的Scrapy框架編寫適用于新浪微博的網(wǎng)絡(luò)爬蟲程序,遞歸地爬取指定ID下粉絲與其關(guān)注對象的用戶信息和評論數(shù)據(jù),并搭建真實微博用戶網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型。使用Matlab搭建輿論動力學(xué)仿真環(huán)境,嵌入本文提出的基于虛擬力的輿論動力學(xué)模型,通過界面化交互平臺輸入相應(yīng)數(shù)據(jù),可快捷方便的進行仿真,得到觀點演化圖像,有一定的工程實用性。
[Abstract]:With the popularity of mobile devices such as mobile phones, the social platform based on mobile Internet is gradually replacing the traditional print media in the role of public opinion guidance. Because of the mobility, real-time and self-media characteristics of mobile Internet, public opinion can spread rapidly and widely. Because of the above characteristics, the public opinion reversal events in the mobile network-based social platform are increasing year by year. The resulting network violence emerges in endlessly, which brings great challenge to the supervision of relevant government departments. Based on a large number of literature on public opinion dynamics and complex networks at home and abroad, this paper establishes a public opinion dynamics model adapted to mobile social environment, and analyzes the reasons for the formation of public opinion reversal from the aspect of simulation. Finally, the platform of public opinion tendency analysis is compiled. The main results of this paper are as follows: 1. In this paper, the general situation of complex network modeling and public opinion dynamics model is summarized, and the finite trust model of public opinion dynamics is introduced and analyzed in detail. Combined with the status quo of mobile internet social platform interaction, the shortcomings of the original HK model are summarized, and the direction of improvement is given. 2. According to the influence of individuals without connected edges on mobile Internet social platform, a public opinion dynamics model based on virtual gravity is proposed. Considering the network connection between users, the interactive natural law of Internet platform is incorporated into it. It reflects the characteristics of the real mobile interconnected viewpoint interactive network, social groups are not isolated from each other, each individual has a virtual connection, and disconnected nodes will also have a resonance of views. 3. On the basis of the public opinion dynamics model based on virtual gravity, BA scale-free network is introduced to simulate the interactive network of social platform users in the real mobile Internet, and the cause of public opinion reversal is studied by combining different parameters. Summing up the influence of the individual number of extreme views on the evolution of group views is of practical significance to the control of public opinion orientation by government agencies. The real network data is used to verify the model, which proves that the model proposed in this paper is consistent with the real public opinion reversal event to a certain extent. 4. Build the public opinion tendency analysis platform. The Scrapy framework based on Python2.7 is used to compile the web crawler program for Sina Weibo. The user information and comment data of fans and their objects of concern under specified ID are crawled recursively, and a real user network model of Weibo is built. The simulation environment of public opinion dynamics is built with Matlab, and the model of public opinion dynamics based on virtual force is embedded in this paper. The corresponding data can be input through the interface interactive platform, and the view evolution image can be obtained quickly and conveniently. It has certain engineering practicability.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京郵電大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：G206

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