【摘要】：玉米已成為我國播種面積最大的糧食作物,同時玉米在主要糧食作物中比例也不斷攀升。文章利用2003~2010年河北省農(nóng)戶玉米種植的動態(tài)面板數(shù)據(jù),建立了農(nóng)業(yè)供給反應(yīng)(適應(yīng)性預(yù)期)模型,采用廣義矩陣估計方法(GMM),對影響河北省9個縣534戶農(nóng)民的玉米供給和調(diào)整的價格、政策以及氣候等因素進行了動態(tài)面板實證分析和相關(guān)探討�；谵r(nóng)戶玉米生產(chǎn)供給反應(yīng)模型的理論框架,推導(dǎo)出研究所采用的動態(tài)面板適應(yīng)性預(yù)期模型。結(jié)果表明,首先,河北省農(nóng)戶的玉米種植面積對于價格變化很敏感,玉米種植面積的長期價格彈性較大。其次,補貼政策對于農(nóng)戶種植玉米有一定的積極促進作用,但是農(nóng)戶對于補貼額的反應(yīng)程度很小。再次,生產(chǎn)成本投入增加會制約河北省農(nóng)戶玉米種植。最后,降水對于保證玉米生產(chǎn)具有重要作用。因此,穩(wěn)定玉米價格、繼續(xù)加大政策支持力度、完善水利基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施補貼力度對于保證河北省玉米生產(chǎn)和供給會產(chǎn)生積極促進作用。
[Abstract]:Maize has become the largest grain crop in China, and the proportion of maize in the main food crops is increasing. Based on the dynamic panel data of maize planting in Hebei province from 2003 to 2010, a model of agricultural supply response (adaptive expectation) was established, and the generalized matrix estimation method (GMM),) was used. The price, policy and climate of corn supply and adjustment of 534 farmers in nine counties of Hebei Province were analyzed and discussed. Based on the theoretical framework of farmers' corn production response model, the adaptive expectation model of dynamic panel is derived. The results show that, firstly, the corn planting area of farmers in Hebei Province is sensitive to the price change, and the long-term price elasticity of corn planting area is greater. Secondly, the subsidy policy has a positive effect on the farmers planting corn, but the farmers' response to the subsidy amount is very small. Thirdly, the increase of production cost will restrict farmers' corn planting in Hebei province. Finally, precipitation plays an important role in ensuring maize production. Therefore, stabilizing corn prices, increasing policy support and improving water conservancy infrastructure subsidies will play a positive role in ensuring corn production and supply in Hebei Province.
【作者單位】： 西安外國語大學(xué)經(jīng)濟金融學(xué)院;日本國際農(nóng)林水產(chǎn)業(yè)研究中心;中國農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)經(jīng)濟管理學(xué)院;農(nóng)業(yè)部農(nóng)村經(jīng)濟研究中心;
【基金】：中日合作研究課題“食物供求與預(yù)測分析” 中日合作項目“農(nóng)產(chǎn)品供求展望與單產(chǎn)等的預(yù)測”
【分類號】：F323.7

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