【摘要】：供求因素對(duì)玉米價(jià)格的影響已很清楚,但金融因素和經(jīng)濟(jì)因素的作用有待進(jìn)一步探索。利用2009年1月~2015年10月的月度數(shù)據(jù),借助SVAR模型,分析了國(guó)內(nèi)外金融因素對(duì)我國(guó)玉米現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格的影響。分析結(jié)果表明:在國(guó)內(nèi)玉米供求變化不大的情況下,其價(jià)格金融化特征明顯,價(jià)格波動(dòng)周期變短、波動(dòng)幅度增大;人民幣實(shí)際匯率對(duì)其價(jià)格的沖擊最大,消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)次之,其他金融因素的影響較小。
[Abstract]:The effect of supply and demand factors on corn price is clear, but the roles of financial and economic factors need to be further explored. Based on the monthly data from January 2009 to October 2015 and the SVAR model, this paper analyzes the influence of domestic and foreign financial factors on spot price of corn in China. The results show that when domestic corn supply and demand change little, the price financialization is obvious, the price fluctuation period becomes shorter and the fluctuation range increases, the real exchange rate of RMB has the biggest impact on its price, and the consumer price index is the second. Other financial factors have less impact.
【作者單位】： 四川農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院;
【基金】：四川省科技支撐計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目“四川省新農(nóng)村建設(shè)科技集成研究與示范”(編號(hào):2015NZ0105)
【分類號(hào)】：F323.7;F724.5

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