發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-07-02 20:36

  本文選題：GDP + 統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)質(zhì)量��； 參考：《廈門大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(哲學(xué)社會(huì)科學(xué)版)》2017年05期

【摘要】：關(guān)于中國GDP數(shù)據(jù)質(zhì)量評(píng)估與核算誤差估算的研究和實(shí)踐,至今未能形成公認(rèn)的方法體系和有形的成果序列。中國GDP核算誤差的估算框架的構(gòu)建,有助于推進(jìn)該領(lǐng)域研究的體系化。該框架主要包含兩層面內(nèi)容:一是根據(jù)核算原理對(duì)GDP指標(biāo)進(jìn)行全方位分解,盡可能地將誤差來源予以細(xì)化,并與現(xiàn)有的局部估算研究建立對(duì)應(yīng)關(guān)系;二是遵循局部調(diào)整、邊際改進(jìn)的技術(shù)思路,對(duì)GDP(及其誤差)各個(gè)組成部分的外部估算結(jié)果進(jìn)行銜接和重組,通過序貫逼近,最終建立針對(duì)官方數(shù)據(jù)的較具可信度的替代性數(shù)據(jù)序列和數(shù)據(jù)集。該框架滿足GDP數(shù)據(jù)質(zhì)量評(píng)估研究在理論基礎(chǔ)可靠性、技術(shù)可行性、問題可辨識(shí)性以及系統(tǒng)兼容性等方面的要求,可以為該領(lǐng)域研究成果的系統(tǒng)整合以及對(duì)于中國統(tǒng)計(jì)實(shí)踐的指導(dǎo)價(jià)值的切實(shí)發(fā)揮提供穩(wěn)健的方法平臺(tái)。
[Abstract]:The research and practice on the quality evaluation of GDP data and the estimation of accounting errors in China have not yet formed a generally accepted method system and tangible result series. The construction of estimation framework of GDP accounting error in China is helpful to systematize the research in this field. The framework mainly includes two aspects: first, according to the accounting principle, the GDP index is decomposed in an all-round way, the source of error is refined as much as possible, and the corresponding relationship is established with the existing local estimation research; the other is to follow the local adjustment. The marginal improved technical thinking links and reorganizes the external estimation results of each component of GDP (and its errors) and finally establishes a reliable alternative data sequence and data set for official data by sequential approximation. The framework meets the requirements of theoretical basis reliability, technical feasibility, problem identifiability and system compatibility in the research of GDP data quality evaluation. It can provide a robust method platform for the systematic integration of the research results in this field and the practical exertion of the guiding value of the statistical practice in China.
【作者單位】： 廈門大學(xué)臺(tái)灣研究院;
【基金】：國家社科基金項(xiàng)目“中國GDP核算誤差、數(shù)據(jù)修訂及其影響機(jī)制研究”(12CTJ015)
【分類號(hào)】：F222.33

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本文編號(hào)：2090839