本文選題：油桃 + 價格��； 參考：《農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)》2017年08期

【摘要】：為掌握油桃價格波動規(guī)律,穩(wěn)定油桃市場價格,提升桃農(nóng)收入,本文使用了EGARCH、TARCH的ARCH類模型對油桃的價格波動及波動特征進(jìn)行了分析。研究表明,油桃價格波動存在顯著的集簇性和非對稱性,即價格波動具有正相關(guān)性以及價格下跌信息引發(fā)的波動大于價格上漲信息引發(fā)的波動。據(jù)此本文提出兩點(diǎn)建議:油桃貨架期短,損耗大,應(yīng)建立暢通的物流通道,采用冷鏈物流技術(shù),縮短物流時間、降低油桃在物流過程中的損耗;桃農(nóng)缺乏準(zhǔn)確的油桃市場信息,應(yīng)建立涵蓋全產(chǎn)業(yè)的綜合性信息平臺,發(fā)布權(quán)威市場信息,著重關(guān)注價格下跌信息并采取科學(xué)的預(yù)警措施。
[Abstract]:In order to understand the fluctuation law of nectarine price, stabilize the market price of nectarine, and increase the income of peach farmers, this paper uses the arch model of EGARCHTARCH to analyze the price fluctuation and fluctuation characteristics of nectarine. The results show that there is significant clustering and asymmetry in price fluctuation of nectarine, that is, the price fluctuation is positively correlated and the fluctuation caused by price decline information is larger than that caused by price rise information. Based on this, this paper puts forward two suggestions: nectarine has short shelf life and large loss, so it is necessary to establish an unimpeded logistics channel, adopt cold chain logistics technology, shorten the logistics time and reduce the loss of nectarine in the process of logistics, and peach farmers lack accurate market information of nectarine. We should establish a comprehensive information platform covering the whole industry, issue authoritative market information, pay attention to the information of price decline and take scientific early warning measures.
【作者單位】： 南京農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)管理學(xué)院;
【分類號】：F323.7

【相似文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前1條

1 王秀東;劉斌;閆琰;;基于ARCH模型的我國大豆期貨價格波動分析[J];農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì);2013年12期

，

本文編號：2047725