本文選題：蔬菜價(jià)格 + 時(shí)間序列分析�。� 參考：《中國(guó)蔬菜》2017年11期

【摘要】：蔬菜是與人們生活密切相關(guān)的農(nóng)產(chǎn)品,近些年來(lái)蔬菜價(jià)格的劇烈波動(dòng)引起了人們的密切關(guān)注。本文分析了北京市蔬菜歷年價(jià)格的變動(dòng)情況,比較了蔬菜與糧食價(jià)格、蔬菜不同品種之間以及地區(qū)蔬菜價(jià)格的差異,在對(duì)蔬菜價(jià)格變動(dòng)進(jìn)行分解的基礎(chǔ)上,進(jìn)一步對(duì)影響北京市蔬菜價(jià)格變動(dòng)的因素進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析。結(jié)果表明:(1)北京市蔬菜價(jià)格具有明顯的季節(jié)波動(dòng)特征,整體表現(xiàn)為冬季價(jià)格高、夏季價(jià)格低;(2)剔除季節(jié)變動(dòng)因素后蔬菜價(jià)格波動(dòng)平緩,長(zhǎng)期呈現(xiàn)上漲態(tài)勢(shì);(3)蔬菜價(jià)格周期波動(dòng)顯著,可劃分為長(zhǎng)度分別是4 a和6 a的2個(gè)周期;(4)北京市工業(yè)增加值增速、鮮菜價(jià)格指數(shù)、人均可支配收入以及1~4月時(shí)期因素對(duì)蔬菜價(jià)格變動(dòng)產(chǎn)生顯著的正向影響,6~11月時(shí)期因素對(duì)蔬菜價(jià)格產(chǎn)生負(fù)向影響。
[Abstract]:Vegetable is an agricultural product closely related to people's life. In recent years, the violent fluctuation of vegetable price has aroused people's close attention. This paper analyzes the change of vegetable price in Beijing over the years, compares the price between vegetable and grain, the difference of vegetable price between different varieties and regions, and analyzes the change of vegetable price on the basis of decomposition. Further more, the factors influencing the change of vegetable price in Beijing are analyzed empirically. The results show that the vegetable price in Beijing has obvious seasonal fluctuation characteristics, the overall performance is that the winter price is high, and the summer price is low. The vegetable price cycle fluctuates significantly, which can be divided into two cycles with length of 4 years and 6 years respectively) the growth rate of industrial added value of Beijing, the price index of fresh vegetables, and so on. The per capita disposable income and factors from January to April had a significant positive effect on vegetable price changes. In June to November, factors had a negative effect on vegetable prices.
【作者單位】： 中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)管理學(xué)院;北京市農(nóng)業(yè)局;
【基金】：現(xiàn)代農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)技術(shù)體系北京市果類蔬菜產(chǎn)業(yè)創(chuàng)新團(tuán)隊(duì)項(xiàng)目(BAIC01-2016) 北京市社科基金重點(diǎn)項(xiàng)目(15JGA020) 國(guó)家重點(diǎn)研發(fā)計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目(2016YFD0300210)
【分類號(hào)】：F323.7

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