本文選題：大豆產(chǎn)業(yè) + 生產(chǎn)困境��； 參考：《吉林農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)》2017年博士論文

【摘要】：農(nóng)業(yè)供給側(cè)結(jié)構(gòu)性改革戰(zhàn)略提出之前,中國(guó)大豆產(chǎn)業(yè)已基本喪失其國(guó)際競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力,在參與國(guó)際大豆競(jìng)爭(zhēng)中處于弱勢(shì)地位�；仡櫞蠖巩a(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展過(guò)程不難發(fā)現(xiàn),我國(guó)已經(jīng)從有著幾千年歷史的大豆原產(chǎn)國(guó)變?yōu)?8%的大豆依靠進(jìn)口的大豆進(jìn)口國(guó)。2016年我國(guó)國(guó)產(chǎn)大豆約1100萬(wàn)噸,為了滿(mǎn)足國(guó)內(nèi)9700萬(wàn)噸的消費(fèi)量,需要從國(guó)外進(jìn)口8600萬(wàn)噸的大豆來(lái)滿(mǎn)足國(guó)內(nèi)需求。近年來(lái),我國(guó)大豆種植面積、單位產(chǎn)量、技術(shù)進(jìn)步均沒(méi)有明顯提升,但國(guó)內(nèi)大豆的需求量卻隨著人們生活水平的提高及畜牧業(yè)規(guī)模的擴(kuò)大而顯著增強(qiáng),借中國(guó)入世后取消大豆貿(mào)易配額之機(jī),國(guó)外轉(zhuǎn)基因大豆憑借其低廉的價(jià)格迅速擠占了中國(guó)大豆市場(chǎng),使得國(guó)內(nèi)大量大豆加工企業(yè)紛紛倒閉或被外資收購(gòu),中國(guó)大豆生產(chǎn)與供給陷入困境。本文在對(duì)我國(guó)大豆產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀、市場(chǎng)需求以及供需平衡分析的基礎(chǔ)上,通過(guò)對(duì)全球大豆產(chǎn)業(yè)生產(chǎn)、貿(mào)易、市場(chǎng)格局發(fā)展中先進(jìn)經(jīng)驗(yàn)的借鑒,運(yùn)用計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)方法對(duì)我國(guó)大豆產(chǎn)業(yè)的生產(chǎn)效率、國(guó)際競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力格局進(jìn)行了深入分析。通過(guò)對(duì)我國(guó)大豆產(chǎn)業(yè)生產(chǎn)變化的特點(diǎn)、效應(yīng)的挖掘,對(duì)影響我國(guó)大豆產(chǎn)量下降、農(nóng)民種植積極性不高的原因進(jìn)行剖析,為探索我國(guó)大豆提高供給的出路提出了合理的政策建議。同時(shí)指出我們要借農(nóng)業(yè)供給側(cè)結(jié)構(gòu)性改革之機(jī),調(diào)整農(nóng)業(yè)種植結(jié)構(gòu)、搶抓大豆生產(chǎn)、落實(shí)“米改豆”策略、降低大豆生產(chǎn)成本、提高大豆種植效益、提高大豆科技種植,擺脫大豆生產(chǎn)困境,使我國(guó)的大豆產(chǎn)業(yè)走上健康可持續(xù)發(fā)展之路。本論文共分為八章,主要研究?jī)?nèi)容如下:第一章為緒論。首先闡述了研究背景與意義,梳理了國(guó)內(nèi)外相關(guān)文獻(xiàn),明確了大豆生產(chǎn)發(fā)展的相關(guān)概念,介紹了本文的研究?jī)?nèi)容與研究方法,最后對(duì)本文研究的理論基礎(chǔ)進(jìn)行闡述,為下文研究打下了基礎(chǔ)。第二章和第三章對(duì)中國(guó)大豆生產(chǎn)現(xiàn)狀、供需平衡及全球大豆產(chǎn)業(yè)市場(chǎng)格局的演進(jìn)進(jìn)行了分析。首先從生產(chǎn)、加工、貿(mào)易、需求等層面對(duì)我國(guó)大豆產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展及供需結(jié)構(gòu)進(jìn)行了闡述與分析;其次通過(guò)對(duì)全球大豆產(chǎn)業(yè)生產(chǎn)、貿(mào)易格局的演變過(guò)程的梳理,從生產(chǎn)消費(fèi)、產(chǎn)業(yè)政策和貿(mào)易政策等角度對(duì)全球大豆市場(chǎng)格局的演進(jìn)進(jìn)行分析,提出借鑒國(guó)外先進(jìn)經(jīng)驗(yàn)、提高我國(guó)大豆產(chǎn)量、擺脫我國(guó)大豆生產(chǎn)困境、參與大豆國(guó)際競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的建議。第四章至第六章是本文的核心內(nèi)容。第四章對(duì)中國(guó)大豆生產(chǎn)困境展開(kāi)了深入分析。從要素投入、生產(chǎn)效率和國(guó)際競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力三個(gè)維度展開(kāi)了對(duì)大豆生產(chǎn)困境的分析。首先,指出影響我國(guó)大豆供給的土地資源、資本資金、從業(yè)人員和科學(xué)技術(shù)等生產(chǎn)要素投入嚴(yán)重不足;其次,選擇大豆產(chǎn)業(yè)投入產(chǎn)出、全要素生產(chǎn)指數(shù)和規(guī)模變化等指標(biāo)數(shù)據(jù),利用DEA中的VRS模型對(duì)大豆生產(chǎn)效率進(jìn)行評(píng)價(jià)和評(píng)估,使用Tobit多元線(xiàn)性回歸模型和樣本選擇模型對(duì)我國(guó)大豆產(chǎn)業(yè)的諸多影響因素進(jìn)行回歸分析,揭示導(dǎo)致我國(guó)大豆生產(chǎn)效率較低的深層次原因;最后,通過(guò)構(gòu)建大豆國(guó)際競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力指標(biāo),對(duì)比了中國(guó)大豆參與國(guó)際市場(chǎng)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力狀況。第五章對(duì)中國(guó)大豆生產(chǎn)效應(yīng)進(jìn)行了分析。本章從資源效應(yīng)、生態(tài)效應(yīng)、安全效應(yīng)及結(jié)構(gòu)效應(yīng)等角度對(duì)我國(guó)大豆供給困境造成的影響進(jìn)行了深入分析。在國(guó)際市場(chǎng)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品供給充足、我國(guó)外匯儲(chǔ)備實(shí)力雄厚、人民幣成為世界第五大貨幣等有利因素下,指出我國(guó)實(shí)施大豆資源進(jìn)口的經(jīng)濟(jì)效益和社會(huì)效益;化肥、農(nóng)藥的進(jìn)口替代可以產(chǎn)生一定的生態(tài)效應(yīng);通過(guò)構(gòu)建大豆產(chǎn)業(yè)安全評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)及對(duì)大豆對(duì)外依存度的分析指出了大豆生產(chǎn)困境的安全效應(yīng);供給側(cè)結(jié)構(gòu)性改革政策的及時(shí)提出為我國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)種植結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整、走出大豆生產(chǎn)困境帶來(lái)了新的機(jī)遇。第六章對(duì)中國(guó)大豆生產(chǎn)困境的成因進(jìn)行了深入分析。從技術(shù)因素、市場(chǎng)因素和政策因素指出了大豆生產(chǎn)困境的成因。大豆生產(chǎn)成本高源于機(jī)械化水平較低及轉(zhuǎn)基因技術(shù)落后且被禁止使用;豆農(nóng)種植積極性差源于大豆的比較收益弱于其他競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力作物;進(jìn)口大豆搶占國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)源于我國(guó)大豆產(chǎn)業(yè)政策和貿(mào)易政策的支持力度弱化。第七章提出了中國(guó)大豆走出生產(chǎn)困境的出路。從大豆生產(chǎn)自給率定位、大豆種植區(qū)域布局規(guī)劃、建立中國(guó)非轉(zhuǎn)基因大豆種植保護(hù)區(qū)、放開(kāi)轉(zhuǎn)基因大豆種植、強(qiáng)化主產(chǎn)區(qū)利益補(bǔ)償機(jī)制等方面對(duì)我國(guó)大豆生產(chǎn)發(fā)展進(jìn)行分析并提出了政策建議。第八章對(duì)本研究的結(jié)論進(jìn)行了總結(jié),同時(shí)提出對(duì)未來(lái)研究的展望。
[Abstract]:Before the proposal of the agricultural supply side structural reform strategy, the Chinese soybean industry has lost its international competitiveness and is in a weak position in the international soybean competition. It is not difficult to find out that the soybean industry is not difficult to find in China, which has changed from the soybean origin to 88% of the soybean importing country which has a history of thousands of years. In 2016, China made about 11 million tons of domestic soybean. In order to meet the domestic consumption of 97 million tons, it is necessary to import 86 million tons of soybean from foreign countries to meet domestic demand. In recent years, China's soybean planting area, unit output and technological progress have not improved obviously, but the demand of domestic soybean is improved with the improvement of people's living standard and animal husbandry. The expansion of scale has greatly increased, and the foreign GM soybeans have quickly occupied the Chinese soybean market with its low price, making the large number of soybean processing enterprises closed down or being bought by foreign capital in China. The soybean production and supply in China is in trouble. On the basis of the development status, market demand and the analysis of supply and demand balance, through the reference of advanced experience in the production, trade and market pattern development of the global soybean industry, the production efficiency and the international competitiveness pattern of soybean industry in China are deeply analyzed by means of econometrics methods. In order to explore the way to improve the supply of soybean in China, we put forward reasonable policy suggestions for the way to improve the supply of soybean in our country. At the same time, we point out that we should borrow the structure of the agricultural supply side structural reform, adjust the agricultural planting structure, grab the soybean production and implement the "rice to the bean". In order to reduce the cost of soybean production, improve the benefit of soybean planting, improve the planting of soybean, get rid of the difficult situation of soybean production, make the soybean industry of our country on the road of healthy and sustainable development. This paper is divided into eight chapters. The main research contents are as follows: the first chapter is the introduction. First, the background and significance of the research are expounded, and the relevant domestic and foreign related issues have been combed. In the literature, the related concepts of soybean production and development are clarified, the contents and research methods of this paper are introduced. Finally, the theoretical basis of this paper is expounded, which lays the foundation for the following research. The second chapter and the third chapter analyses the status of soybean production in China, the balance of supply and demand and the evolution of the market pattern of the whole ball soybean industry. First, the development and supply and demand structure of soybean industry in China are expounded and analyzed from production, processing, trade, demand and other layers. Secondly, the evolution of the global soybean market pattern is analyzed from the angle of production consumption, industrial policy and trade policy through the analysis of the evolution process of the global soybean industry production and trade pattern, and the development of the global soybean market pattern is analyzed from the angle of production consumption, industrial policy and trade policy. The fourth chapter to the sixth chapter is the core content of this article. The fourth chapter analyzes the difficulties of soybean production in China. The soybean production is carried out from the three dimensions of factor input, production efficiency and international competitiveness. Analysis of the predicament. First, it points out that the land resources, capital funds, employees and science and technology are seriously ininvested in the land resources which affect the supply of soybean in China. Secondly, the index data of soybean industry input-output, total factor production index and scale change are selected, and the efficiency of soybean production is evaluated and evaluated by using the VRS model in DEA. The Tobit multiple linear regression model and the sample selection model were used to analyze the factors affecting the soybean industry in China, and the deep reasons that led to the low efficiency of soybean production in China were revealed. Finally, the competition status of Chinese soybean in the international market was compared by building up the international competitiveness index of soybean. The fifth chapter was in the middle of the Chinese soybean industry. The effect of national soybean production is analyzed. This chapter analyzes the influence of China's soybean supply dilemma from the angle of resource effect, ecological effect, safety effect and structure effect. In the international market, the supply of agricultural products is sufficient, our foreign exchange reserves are strong, and the people's currency becomes the fifth largest currency in the world. The economic and social benefits of importing soybean resources in China, the import substitution of chemical fertilizer and pesticide can produce a certain ecological effect, and the safety effect of soybean production predicament is pointed out through the construction of the safety evaluation index of soybean industry and the analysis of the dependence on the foreign soybean, and the timely proposal of the supply side structural reform policy is for me. The adjustment of agricultural planting structure in China has brought new opportunities out of the plight of soybean production. The sixth chapter makes an in-depth analysis of the causes of the plight of soybean production in China. From the technical, market and policy factors, the causes of the soybean production dilemma are pointed out. The high cost of soybean production comes from the lower level of mechanization and the lag of the transgenic technology. In the seventh chapter, the seventh chapter puts forward the way out for Chinese soybean to go out of the difficult situation of production. In the eighth chapter, the conclusion of the study is summarized and the prospect of the future research is put forward.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：吉林農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F323.7
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本文編號(hào)：1800899