本文選題：農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易 + 逆差��； 參考：《廣東外語(yǔ)外貿(mào)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：東盟是中國(guó)發(fā)展周邊外交和對(duì)外經(jīng)貿(mào)合作的優(yōu)先方向,同時(shí)也是21世紀(jì)海上絲綢之路建設(shè)的必經(jīng)之路。2016年,是中國(guó)與東盟建立對(duì)話關(guān)系25周年,雙邊經(jīng)貿(mào)關(guān)系也開(kāi)始從“黃金十年”邁向“鉆石十年”。但是,經(jīng)貿(mào)發(fā)展進(jìn)程中也出現(xiàn)了一些不容忽視的問(wèn)題:自1994年以來(lái),中國(guó)對(duì)東盟的農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易一直處于逆差態(tài)勢(shì),雖然近年來(lái)逆差有不斷縮小趨勢(shì),但總體貿(mào)易逆差格局卻從未扭轉(zhuǎn)。文章以2002-2016年中國(guó)與東盟的農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易現(xiàn)狀為起點(diǎn),首先,從進(jìn)口、出口角度對(duì)比分析中國(guó)與東盟農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易的波動(dòng)情況,并嘗試探究雙邊農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易的特點(diǎn);其次,在厘清中國(guó)對(duì)東盟農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易逆差的相關(guān)影響因素的作用機(jī)制的情況下,通過(guò)引力模型和CMS模型從國(guó)家層面的人均收入差異、人民幣實(shí)際匯率、國(guó)民總產(chǎn)值等因素與產(chǎn)業(yè)層面農(nóng)產(chǎn)品競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力、需求結(jié)構(gòu)以及產(chǎn)品結(jié)構(gòu)入手進(jìn)行實(shí)證研究,得出:國(guó)家層面上,中國(guó)與東盟各國(guó)間的人均收入差距是影響中國(guó)對(duì)東盟農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易逆差的首要因素,且人均收入差距的變化方向與逆差的波動(dòng)方向相反,人民幣匯率的影響作用次之;產(chǎn)品層面上而言,整體農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易中,中國(guó)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力低下,貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)的不甚合理是導(dǎo)致中國(guó)對(duì)東盟農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易逆差的主要原因。分類(lèi)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易中,2類(lèi)和4類(lèi)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易逆差的存在的主要原因來(lái)源于東盟農(nóng)產(chǎn)品供給增加帶來(lái)的增長(zhǎng)效應(yīng)。最后,提出相應(yīng)的政策建議。
[Abstract]:ASEAN is a priority direction for China to develop its peripheral diplomacy and foreign economic and trade cooperation, and it is also the only way to build the maritime Silk Road in the 21st century. 2016 marks the 25th anniversary of the establishment of dialogue relations between China and ASEAN. Bilateral economic and trade relations have also begun to move from the Golden decade to the Diamond decade. However, in the process of economic and trade development, there are also some problems that can not be ignored: since 1994, China's agricultural trade with ASEAN has been in a deficit situation, although the deficit has been shrinking in recent years. But the overall pattern of trade deficits has never been reversed. This paper starts with the current situation of agricultural trade between China and ASEAN from 2002 to 2016. Firstly, it analyzes the fluctuation of agricultural trade between China and ASEAN from the point of view of import and export, and tries to explore the characteristics of bilateral agricultural trade. In order to clarify the mechanism of the influence factors of China's agricultural trade deficit with ASEAN, through gravity model and CMS model, from the difference of per capita income at the national level, the real exchange rate of RMB, From the empirical research on the factors such as gross national product (GNP) and agricultural products competitiveness, demand structure and product structure at the industrial level, it is concluded that: at the national level, The per capita income gap between China and ASEAN countries is the primary factor that affects China's agricultural trade deficit with ASEAN, and the change direction of income gap is opposite to the fluctuation direction of the deficit, and the influence of RMB exchange rate is the second. On the product level, in the overall agricultural trade, the competitiveness of Chinese agricultural products is low, and the unreasonable structure of trade is the main reason leading to the agricultural trade deficit between China and ASEAN. The main reason for the existence of trade deficit of agricultural products of category 2 and category 4 in classified agricultural products is the growth effect brought about by the increasing supply of agricultural products in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Finally, the corresponding policy recommendations are put forward.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：廣東外語(yǔ)外貿(mào)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F323.7;F752

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