本文關(guān)鍵詞： 國際天然氣價格 非完全競爭 可計算的一般均衡模型　出處：《云南財經(jīng)大學(xué)學(xué)報》2017年03期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：通過構(gòu)建非完全競爭的CGE模型,模擬了在不同情景下國際天然氣價格波動對居民生活及產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的影響。結(jié)果表明:當(dāng)政府不對天然氣進行價格管制時,若國際天然氣價格上漲將降低居民福利水平,提高消費者物價(CPI)指數(shù),增加各產(chǎn)業(yè)的生產(chǎn)成本,造成輸入性通貨膨脹,對不同行業(yè)的產(chǎn)出產(chǎn)生差異化影響,但是能夠改善我國產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu),促進產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)合理化和高級化,若國際天然氣價格下降則基本起到相反的作用效果;當(dāng)政府對天然氣價格形成進行干預(yù)管制時,天然氣的國際價格波動對于產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)和居民生活產(chǎn)生的影響相對較小,表明政府對天然氣價格管制的措施能夠穩(wěn)定物價水平,降低國際天然氣價格波動對中國經(jīng)濟的影響,但是對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的高級化影響則與不存在政府管制的情景相反。
[Abstract]:By constructing an incomplete competition CGE model, the effects of international natural gas price fluctuations on residents' lives and industrial structure under different scenarios are simulated. The results show that: when the government does not regulate the price of natural gas, If the international natural gas price rise will lower the welfare level of the residents, raise the consumer price and CPI index, increase the production costs of various industries, cause imported inflation, and have a differential impact on the output of different industries, However, it can improve the industrial structure of our country, promote the rationalization and upgrading of the industrial structure. If the international natural gas price drops, it will basically have the opposite effect. When the government interferes with the formation of natural gas prices, The impact of the international price fluctuation of natural gas on the industrial structure and residents' lives is relatively small, indicating that the measures taken by the government to regulate the price of natural gas can stabilize the price level and reduce the impact of the fluctuation of the international natural gas price on the Chinese economy. However, the impact on the industrial structure is contrary to the absence of government regulation.
【作者單位】： 山西財經(jīng)大學(xué)統(tǒng)計學(xué)院;吉林大學(xué)數(shù)量經(jīng)濟研究中心;
【基金】：教育部人文社會科學(xué)重點研究基地重大項目“新常態(tài)下中國制造業(yè)投資與產(chǎn)能的配置機制與政策選擇”(15JJD790010) 國家社會科學(xué)基金重大項目“十三五時期環(huán)境治理與經(jīng)濟發(fā)展方式轉(zhuǎn)變相互協(xié)調(diào)機制研究”(15ZDA015) 山西省哲學(xué)社會科學(xué)規(guī)劃課題“轉(zhuǎn)型期山西省能源替代的節(jié)能減排效應(yīng)研究”(晉規(guī)辦字[2016]2號) 高等學(xué)校哲學(xué)社會科學(xué)研究項目“基于低碳化視角的資本與能源替代效應(yīng)研究”(晉教科函[2015]26號)
【分類號】：F121.3;F126;F764.1

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