本文選題：美國 + 網(wǎng)絡(luò)威懾��； 參考：《上海社會科學(xué)院》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：威懾是一種關(guān)于沖突的理論,在世界冷戰(zhàn)時(shí)期威懾戰(zhàn)略遏制了核大戰(zhàn)的發(fā)生;如今在網(wǎng)絡(luò)威脅復(fù)雜化、網(wǎng)絡(luò)沖突多變化、網(wǎng)絡(luò)空間軍事化的形勢下,威懾的概念方法再次受到廣泛關(guān)注。2009年以來,美國政府官員和軍方不斷呼吁加強(qiáng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)威懾,美國的智庫和學(xué)界也掀起了一場研究網(wǎng)絡(luò)威懾的浪潮。盡管近年來網(wǎng)絡(luò)威懾已引起我國學(xué)者和政策制定者的關(guān)注,但對于美國網(wǎng)絡(luò)威懾政策尚缺乏較為系統(tǒng)和全面的研究,而國內(nèi)外關(guān)于網(wǎng)絡(luò)威懾是否可行也存在不同觀點(diǎn)。因此,本論文試圖對美國網(wǎng)絡(luò)威懾政策做一個(gè)全景掃描和系統(tǒng)疏理,并對其進(jìn)行初步的研究分析和評價(jià)。首先,本文考察了網(wǎng)絡(luò)威懾理論的起源與發(fā)展,分析了核威懾與網(wǎng)絡(luò)威懾理論的聯(lián)系與區(qū)別;其次,本文回顧了美國網(wǎng)絡(luò)威懾政策的歷史發(fā)展,探究其發(fā)展中的階段性特點(diǎn);第三,本文總結(jié)了美國網(wǎng)絡(luò)威懾政策制定者及其主要關(guān)注點(diǎn);最后,本文對美國在網(wǎng)絡(luò)威懾上已有的一些政策舉措做出評價(jià)和思考。本文初步得出的結(jié)論包括以下幾個(gè)方面:(1)美國將威懾引入網(wǎng)絡(luò)空間,主要是因?yàn)槔鋺?zhàn)結(jié)束后威脅發(fā)生變化,戰(zhàn)爭進(jìn)入網(wǎng)絡(luò)時(shí)代;與傳統(tǒng)威懾相比,網(wǎng)絡(luò)威懾的特點(diǎn)在于沖突層次低、攻防雙方力量不對稱、難以溯源和效果不確定。(2)美國網(wǎng)絡(luò)威懾政策是網(wǎng)絡(luò)防御政策的補(bǔ)充和提升,經(jīng)歷了克林頓時(shí)期、小布什時(shí)期和奧巴馬時(shí)期的發(fā)展,發(fā)展出報(bào)復(fù)性威懾政策,其政策用語中高頻詞呈現(xiàn)的規(guī)律可以體現(xiàn)美國網(wǎng)絡(luò)威懾政策的階段特點(diǎn)。(3)美國網(wǎng)絡(luò)威懾政策的制定主要由美國的軍事、情報(bào)、司法和外交部門主導(dǎo),政策的制定背后有黨派政治和利益集團(tuán)游說的影響。美國所要威懾的主要目標(biāo)國家是俄羅斯、中國、伊朗和朝鮮四國,其網(wǎng)絡(luò)威懾政策沒有脫離美國既有的網(wǎng)絡(luò)安全政策。(4)美國網(wǎng)絡(luò)威懾政策實(shí)施沒有取得明顯成效,且高調(diào)的威懾使全球網(wǎng)絡(luò)空間競爭博弈和對抗沖突更加緊張;美國網(wǎng)絡(luò)威懾政策采用理性威懾的理論,忽視了決策中非理性因素的影響,且太過確信影響對手心理的能力。中美在網(wǎng)絡(luò)空間的合作利益大于競爭沖突,美國應(yīng)停止抹黑中國在網(wǎng)絡(luò)空間的形象,同時(shí)停止邊緣化中國價(jià)值觀的行為;中國也應(yīng)該在國際上發(fā)聲,闡明自己對網(wǎng)絡(luò)的主張,同時(shí)自主研發(fā)涉及國家安全命脈的網(wǎng)絡(luò)安全技術(shù),以自衛(wèi)為目的發(fā)展網(wǎng)絡(luò)軍事力量。
[Abstract]:Deterrence is a theory of conflict. During the cold war in the world, deterrence strategy contained the occurrence of nuclear war. Now, with the complexity of cyber threats, the variety of cyber-conflicts, and the militarization of cyberspace, Since 2009, US government officials and the military have repeatedly called for the strengthening of cyber deterrence, and American think-tanks and academics have launched a wave of research on cyber deterrence. Although network deterrence has attracted the attention of Chinese scholars and policy makers in recent years, there is still a lack of systematic and comprehensive research on the policy of network deterrence in the United States, and there are different views at home and abroad on the feasibility of network deterrence. Therefore, this paper attempts to do a panoramic scan and systematic dredging of American network deterrence policy, and makes a preliminary study and evaluation of it. Firstly, this paper examines the origin and development of the theory of network deterrence, analyzes the relationship and difference between the theory of nuclear deterrence and the theory of network deterrence, secondly, this paper reviews the historical development of the policy of network deterrence in the United States, and probes into the stage characteristics of its development. Thirdly, this paper summarizes the policy makers of American cyber deterrence and their main concerns. Finally, this paper evaluates and ponders some policy measures that the United States has taken in the field of cyber deterrence. The preliminary conclusions of this paper include the following aspects: 1) the United States has introduced deterrence into cyberspace, mainly because the threat has changed since the end of the Cold War and the war has entered the cyber age; compared with traditional deterrence, The characteristics of cyber deterrence are that the level of conflict is low, the forces of attack and defense are asymmetrical, it is difficult to trace the source and the effect is uncertain) the US cyber-deterrence policy is a supplement and upgrade of the cyberdefense policy, and it has experienced the Clinton period. The development of the Bush and Obama years, the development of retaliatory deterrence policy, The regularity of high-frequency words in its policy terms can reflect the characteristics of the stage of US cyber-deterrence policy.) the formulation of US cyber-deterrence policy is mainly dominated by the military, intelligence, judicial and diplomatic departments of the United States. The policy was made with the influence of partisan politics and interest group lobbying. The main target countries that the United States wants to deter are Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea. Its cyber deterrence policy is not divorced from the existing US cybersecurity policy. Moreover, the high-profile deterrence makes the global cyberspace competition and confrontation more tense. The American network deterrence policy adopts the theory of rational deterrence, neglects the influence of irrational factors in decision-making, and is too convinced of the ability to influence the adversary's psychology. The interests of Sino-US cooperation in cyberspace are greater than those of competition. The United States should stop discrediting China's image in cyberspace and stop marginalizing Chinese values. China should also speak out internationally to clarify its position on the Internet. At the same time, independent research and development of the national security lifeline network security technology, self-defense for the purpose of the development of cyber military force.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：上海社會科學(xué)院
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：D771.2

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本文編號：1911614