本文選題：草地螟 + 溫濕度��； 參考：《中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)科學(xué)院》2016年博士論文

【摘要】：草地螟Loxostege sticticalis L.(鱗翅目:野螟科)在我國(guó)主要分布于華北、東北和西北(三北)地區(qū),1949年以來(lái)已3次26年暴發(fā)成災(zāi),曾造成巨大的經(jīng)濟(jì)損失,是當(dāng)?shù)剞r(nóng)牧業(yè)生產(chǎn)的重大害蟲(chóng)。為了闡明草地螟的發(fā)生危害規(guī)律,改善和提高草地螟的預(yù)測(cè)和控制技術(shù)水平,減少草地螟的災(zāi)害損失提供實(shí)驗(yàn)依據(jù),本文針對(duì)草地螟已有研究中存在的關(guān)鍵問(wèn)題,運(yùn)用生理生態(tài)相結(jié)合的原理,室內(nèi)外相結(jié)合的方法,以及現(xiàn)代研究技術(shù)如地理信息系統(tǒng)(GIS),最大熵(Maxent)模型的應(yīng)用,研究了溫濕度對(duì)草地螟生長(zhǎng)發(fā)育、存活、遷飛和生殖的影響作用,揭示了溫濕條件與草地螟田間種群動(dòng)態(tài)規(guī)律和暴發(fā)成災(zāi)的關(guān)系,預(yù)測(cè)了我國(guó)未來(lái)草地螟的發(fā)生危害趨勢(shì)。獲得了一些原創(chuàng)性結(jié)果,主要的為:1、研究明確了溫濕度對(duì)草地螟卵和幼蟲(chóng)存活的、幼蟲(chóng)所經(jīng)歷的溫濕度條件對(duì)飛行和生殖的,以及幼蟲(chóng)和成蟲(chóng)期同一溫濕度條件下飼養(yǎng)的草地螟的相關(guān)生命表參數(shù)的影響。通過(guò)對(duì)4個(gè)溫度(18、22、26及30℃)和5個(gè)濕度(20%、40%、60%、80%及100%)組合條件下草地螟卵和幼蟲(chóng)存活率、以及由經(jīng)不同溫濕度處理的幼蟲(chóng)所羽化成蟲(chóng)體重、飛行與生殖等指標(biāo)的研究,發(fā)現(xiàn):1)溫濕度對(duì)卵、1~2齡和整個(gè)幼蟲(chóng)期的存活率均有顯著的影響,而對(duì)3~4齡幼蟲(chóng)的存活影響不顯著。5齡幼蟲(chóng)僅受濕度的影響,而不受溫度的影響。其中以22℃和60%~80%RH條件下的存活率最高,30℃和20%RH條件下的最低。另外,幼蟲(chóng)發(fā)育歷期隨溫度的升高而縮短,受溫度的影響顯著,但不受濕度的影響。2)幼蟲(chóng)經(jīng)不同溫濕度處理后的蟲(chóng)繭歷期和成蟲(chóng)體重差異顯著。其中發(fā)育歷期隨溫濕度的增加而縮短,而成蟲(chóng)體重則隨溫濕度的增加而下降。成蟲(chóng)飛行及生殖能力與其幼蟲(chóng)所經(jīng)歷的溫濕條件密切相關(guān)。其中生殖能力以22℃和60%~80%RH條件下的最強(qiáng),主要表現(xiàn)為產(chǎn)卵前期短,產(chǎn)卵量大,而以30℃條件下的最差。但是,飛行能力則以18℃和20%~40%RH條件下的最強(qiáng)。這些結(jié)果表明幼蟲(chóng)期溫濕度不僅會(huì)影響草地螟幼蟲(chóng)的存活與發(fā)育而且還會(huì)影響到成蟲(chóng)的遷飛和生殖。3)在研究明確了以不同溫濕條件下飼養(yǎng)的草地螟在發(fā)育、存活以及生殖能力差異的同時(shí),揭示了幼蟲(chóng)和成蟲(chóng)期均在同一個(gè)不同溫濕條件下主要生命表參數(shù)的變異。其中凈增長(zhǎng)率(R0)、內(nèi)稟增長(zhǎng)率(rm)和周限增長(zhǎng)率(λ)均以22~26℃,60%~80%RH條件下的最大,而平均世代周期(GT)和種群倍增時(shí)間(DT)也以22~26℃,60%~80%RH條件下的最短。2、研究明確了成蟲(chóng)所處溫濕條件對(duì)草地螟遷飛和生殖的影響作用。應(yīng)用上述溫濕條件對(duì)同一環(huán)境條件飼養(yǎng)出來(lái)的成蟲(chóng)飛行和生殖能力進(jìn)行研究的結(jié)果表明:1)飛行溫濕條件對(duì)成蟲(chóng)的飛行能力有顯著的影響,應(yīng)用吊飛測(cè)試系統(tǒng)進(jìn)行測(cè)試的結(jié)果表明,在18~22℃,60%~80%RH條件下成蟲(chóng)的飛行能力最強(qiáng),而在其他溫濕條件下,成蟲(chóng)的飛行能力較弱。另外,在最適宜的溫濕條件下,成蟲(chóng)飛行后的能源物質(zhì)含量稍低,體重消耗最小,能源物質(zhì)利用效率最高。最后,飛行后的成蟲(chóng)生殖能力與對(duì)照的沒(méi)有顯著差異。但是,應(yīng)用昆蟲(chóng)自主飛行系統(tǒng)對(duì)成蟲(chóng)飛行活動(dòng)測(cè)定所得的結(jié)果則有所不同,成蟲(chóng)在22℃和60%~80%RH條件下的飛行活動(dòng)較少,而在其他溫濕條件下較多。這些結(jié)果為繼續(xù)闡明草地螟的遷飛行為規(guī)律提供了重要的實(shí)驗(yàn)依據(jù)。2)成蟲(chóng)所處的溫濕條件對(duì)成蟲(chóng)的產(chǎn)卵前期、交配次數(shù)、產(chǎn)卵量、成蟲(chóng)壽命以及卵孵化率也有顯著的影響。其中生殖能力和孵化率以22℃,60%~80%RH條件下的最高,在其他溫濕條件下的較低。另外,成蟲(chóng)壽命在低溫條件下較長(zhǎng),高溫條件下較短。3、研究明確了溫濕度是影響草地螟田間種群動(dòng)態(tài)規(guī)律及暴發(fā)成災(zāi)的關(guān)鍵環(huán)境因子。1)通過(guò)對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)田間60起遷出和136起遷入事件的發(fā)生與溫濕條件進(jìn)行分析的結(jié)果表明:成蟲(chóng)遷出日的溫度僅有5%處在21~23℃,而成蟲(chóng)遷入地這一比率為35.35%,兩者差異顯著,其他不利于草地螟生殖的因子遷出事件較遷入多,這可能是草地螟種群遷出的原因。2)研究確定了越冬蟲(chóng)源存活的適宜溫濕條件,比較了山西大同、內(nèi)蒙古四子王旗和河北康保三地草地螟大發(fā)生周期與間歇周期之間越冬期間的溫濕條件,發(fā)現(xiàn)大發(fā)生周期內(nèi)有利于幼蟲(chóng)越冬的溫濕條件顯著優(yōu)于間歇周期的。3)通過(guò)對(duì)康保30年田間1代幼蟲(chóng)發(fā)生程度與越冬代成蟲(chóng)發(fā)生期期間的溫濕度或降雨量的關(guān)系分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)蛾峰期7天內(nèi)的溫濕條件與幼蟲(chóng)發(fā)生程度顯著相關(guān):在成蟲(chóng)發(fā)生量相似的條件下,滿(mǎn)足氣溫21~23℃,濕度40%~80%的天數(shù)越多,當(dāng)?shù)赜紫x(chóng)的危害程度越重。4)通過(guò)分析2008年8月一代成蟲(chóng)、二代幼蟲(chóng)的發(fā)生分布與同期溫濕度環(huán)境的分布特征表明:一代成蟲(chóng)與二代幼蟲(chóng)主要分布在溫度為18~26℃,相對(duì)濕度40%的區(qū)域,其中,相對(duì)濕度60%~80%的區(qū)域最為密集。成蟲(chóng)、幼蟲(chóng)的分布都為聚集型。5)2009年我國(guó)一代幼蟲(chóng)的發(fā)生危害面積(400萬(wàn)公頃)遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)低于越冬蟲(chóng)源面積(1600萬(wàn)公頃),比例嚴(yán)重失調(diào)。究其原因,主要的是:越冬幼蟲(chóng)發(fā)育期間(4月)溫度的升高,促使成蟲(chóng)提前羽化;成蟲(chóng)盛發(fā)期間溫濕條件明顯降低,抑制了成蟲(chóng)起飛和生殖等活動(dòng)的發(fā)生。4、根據(jù)上述研究結(jié)果和全球氣候變化數(shù)據(jù),應(yīng)用Maxent模型預(yù)測(cè)了我國(guó)未來(lái)草地螟越冬場(chǎng)所的變化規(guī)律。為了闡明全球氣候變化條件下我國(guó)草地螟越冬區(qū)的變化規(guī)律,本文以1949年以來(lái)我國(guó)草地螟越冬場(chǎng)所為基礎(chǔ),結(jié)合政府間氣候變化專(zhuān)門(mén)委員會(huì)(IPCC)第五次評(píng)估報(bào)告發(fā)布的BCC-CSM1.1氣候模式數(shù)據(jù)的應(yīng)用,采用Maxent模型預(yù)測(cè)了4種(RCP 2.6,4.5,6.0和8.5)氣候變化情景下2050s及2070s年代我國(guó)草地螟越冬區(qū)的變化趨勢(shì)。所得的主要結(jié)果為:1)訓(xùn)練數(shù)據(jù)集和測(cè)試數(shù)據(jù)集的AUC值分別為0.989和0.987,表明模型的預(yù)測(cè)效果很好。2)經(jīng)Jackknife方法檢驗(yàn),降雨量變化方差Bio15是最重要的變量,最濕月份降雨量Bio13次之,最后為10月份降水量prec_10及年溫變化范圍Bio7。這些環(huán)境變量對(duì)模型的貢獻(xiàn)率最大均超過(guò)10%,因而是模型構(gòu)建最重要的環(huán)境變量。3)在各種氣候變化條件下,到2050s及2070s年代,我國(guó)草地螟的越冬區(qū)的面積和位置相對(duì)于當(dāng)前都有不同程度的擴(kuò)大和北移。其中最適越冬區(qū)面積為當(dāng)前的1.41-2.94倍,其質(zhì)心位置向北移動(dòng)78.79~226.97 km。這些結(jié)果表明,我國(guó)未來(lái)草地螟越冬場(chǎng)所不僅面積將會(huì)擴(kuò)大,而且位置還會(huì)北移。本文的創(chuàng)新點(diǎn)主要體現(xiàn)于:1)研究揭示了不同溫濕條件對(duì)草地螟卵和幼蟲(chóng)存活及幼蟲(chóng)發(fā)育的影響作用,明確了經(jīng)不同溫濕條件處理的幼蟲(chóng)對(duì)其成蟲(chóng)遷飛和生殖能力的調(diào)控作用,以及幼蟲(chóng)和成蟲(chóng)均在同一不同溫濕條件下飼養(yǎng)的草地螟主要生命表參數(shù)的變異;2)研究揭示了溫濕條件對(duì)成蟲(chóng)飛行和生殖的影響作用,明確了成蟲(chóng)飛行與生殖的最適溫濕條件,區(qū)分了成蟲(chóng)自主飛行與被動(dòng)(吊飛)飛行的最適溫濕條件;3)通過(guò)對(duì)田間溫濕條件與越冬蟲(chóng)源存活、遷出遷入、成蟲(chóng)發(fā)生量以及幼蟲(chóng)發(fā)生危害程度的研究分析,明確了溫濕度是影響草地螟田間種群動(dòng)態(tài)規(guī)律及暴發(fā)成災(zāi)的關(guān)鍵環(huán)境因子;4)運(yùn)用Maxent模型預(yù)測(cè)了我國(guó)2050s及2070s年代草地螟越冬區(qū)的變化情況。所得結(jié)果為深化草地螟遷飛行為及種群動(dòng)態(tài)規(guī)律的研究,改善和提高草地螟監(jiān)測(cè)預(yù)報(bào)技術(shù)提供了重要的實(shí)驗(yàn)依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:The Loxostege sticticalis L. of the meadow borer (Lepidoptera: Lepidoptera: Wild borer) is mainly distributed in North China, northeast and Northwest (three North) areas. Since 1949, it has occurred 3 times in 26 years. It has caused huge economic losses and was a major pest in the local agriculture and animal husbandry. The test and control technical level to reduce the loss of grassland borer provides experimental basis. This paper aims at the key problems in the study of grassland borer. Using the principle of combining physiology and ecology, the method of combining indoor and external phase, and the application of modern research technology such as GIS, Maxent model, the temperature and humidity are studied. The influence of the growth, survival, migration and reproduction of the meadow borer, revealed the relationship between the temperature and humidity conditions and the dynamic law of the field population of the grassland borer, and predicted the trend of the occurrence and harm of the future grassland borer in China. Some original results were obtained: 1, the study made clear the survival of the eggs and larvae of the meadow borer. The effects of temperature and humidity conditions on flight and reproduction, as well as the related life table parameters of the meadow borer raised under the same temperature and humidity conditions in the larva and adult stage. The survival rate of the eggs and larvae of the meadow borer under the conditions of 4 temperatures (18,22,26 and 30 degrees C) and 5 humidity (20%, 40%, 60%, 80% and 100%), and the differences in the survival rate of the egg and larva under the conditions of different temperatures (20%, 40%, 60%, 80% and 100%). Study on the body weight, flight and reproduction of the larvae of the larvae treated by temperature and humidity, found that: 1) temperature and humidity have a significant influence on the survival rate of the egg, 1~2 age and the whole larval stage, but the effect on the survival of the 3~4 larvae is not significantly affected by the humidity, and is not affected by the temperature. Under the conditions of 22 and 60%~80%RH, it is not affected by the temperature. The survival rate was the highest, the lowest under the conditions of 30 and 20%RH. In addition, the larval development period shortened with the increase of temperature, influenced significantly by temperature, but not affected by humidity, the larvae of the larvae were significantly different in the cocoon calendar period and the adult body weight. The growth period was shortened with the increase of temperature and humidity, and the adult body weight was the.2. The flying and reproductive capacity of the adult was closely related to the temperature and humidity conditions experienced by the larvae. Among them, the reproductive capacity was the strongest under the conditions of 22 and 60%~80%RH, mainly characterized by short pre oviposition, large spawning and worst at 30 C, but the ability to fly was the strongest under the condition of 18 and 20%~40%RH. These results show that the temperature and humidity in the larval stage not only affect the survival and development of the larva of the meadow borer, but also affect the migration and reproduction of the adult.3). It is clear that the growth, survival and reproductive capacity of the meadow borer in different temperature and humidity conditions have revealed that both the larvae and the adult stage are in the same wet wet strip. The net growth rate (R0), the intrinsic growth rate (RM) and the circumferential growth rate ([lambda]) were both at 22~26 and 60%~80%RH, while the average generation period (GT) and the population multiplication time (DT) were also the shortest.2 under the 22~26 and 60%~80%RH conditions. The study clearly showed that the temperature and humidity conditions of the adults were migrating to the meadow borer. The results of the study on the flying and reproductive ability of adults fed on the same environmental conditions by using the above temperature and humidity conditions showed that: 1) the flight temperature and humidity conditions had a significant influence on the flying ability of the adults. The results of the test by using the flying test system showed that the flight of adults under the condition of 18~22, 60%~80%RH and the flying test system was shown. In other warm and wet conditions, the ability of the adult is weak. In addition, under the most suitable temperature and humidity conditions, the energy material content of the adult is slightly lower, the weight consumption is the smallest, the energy material utilization efficiency is the highest. Finally, the reproductive ability of the adult after flying is not significantly different from that of the control. The results of the measurement of adult flight activities were different. The flight activity of adults at 22 and 60%~80%RH was less, but under the other temperature and humidity conditions. These results provided an important experimental basis for further clarifying the migratory behavior of meadow borer (.2). The number of mating, the amount of eggs, the life span of the adult and the hatching rate of eggs also had a significant effect. The reproductive capacity and hatchability were highest under the conditions of 22, 60%~80%RH, and under the other temperature and humidity conditions. In addition, the life span of the adult was longer under the low temperature condition and the high temperature was shorter than.3. The study clearly indicated that the temperature and humidity were the effects on the field population of the grassland borer. The dynamic law and the key environmental factor of the outbreak of disaster.1) through the analysis of the occurrence of 60 migrated and 136 migrated events in the field and the temperature and humidity conditions, the results showed that the temperature of the adult migrated day was only 5% at 21~23 C, and the rate of adult migrated to the land was 35.35%, the two difference was significant, and the other factors were not conducive to the reproduction of the grassland borer. The reasons for the migration of the subpopulation, which may be the cause of the migration of the meadow borer,.2), determine the suitable temperature and humidity conditions for the survival of the more winter insects, and compare the temperature and humidity conditions between the Shanxi Datong, Siziwangqi and Hebei, Inner Mongolia and Hebei. The temperature and humidity conditions of the larvae overwintered significantly better than that of.3 in the intermittent period. By analyzing the relationship between the degree of the occurrence of the 1 generation larvae in the 30 years of Kangbao and the temperature and humidity or rainfall during the period of the generation of the overwintering generation, it was found that the temperature and humidity conditions in the 7 days of the moth peak period were significantly related to the degree of larval occurrence: under the condition of similar occurrence of adults, the temperature was 2. 1~23 C, the more days of humidity 40%~80%, the greater the degree of damage to the local larvae.4), the distribution of the two generation larvae and the distribution characteristics of the temperature and humidity environment of the two generation larvae showed that the first generation of adult and two generation larvae mainly distributed in the region of the temperature of 18~26 C and the relative humidity of 40%, of which the relative humidity 60%~80% was in the region. The distribution of the adults and larvae is the aggregation type.5). The damage area of the first generation larvae of our country (4 million ha) in 2009 is far below the area (16 million ha) of the overwintering insect source (16 million ha), and the proportion is serious. The main reason is that the temperature rise during the development of the overwintering larvae (April), the early emergence of the adult and the temperature of the adult hair. According to the results of the study and the global climate change data, the Maxent model was used to predict the changing rules of the overwintering places in the future of China. In order to clarify the changing rules of the overwintering area of the grass borer in China under global climate change, this paper will take 1949 as a result, according to the results of the study and the data of global climate change. Based on the overwintering site of the grassland borer in China and the application of the BCC-CSM1.1 climate model data issued by the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on climate change (IPCC), the change trend of the overwintering area of the grassland borer in the 2050s and 2070s years of China under the climate change scenarios of 4 (RCP 2.6,4.5,6.0 and 8.5) was predicted by the Maxent model. The main results are as follows: 1) the AUC values of the training data set and the test data set are 0.989 and 0.987 respectively, indicating that the prediction effect of the model is very good.2). The rainfall variation variance Bio15 is the most important variable through the Jackknife method. The rainfall of the wettest month is Bio13 times, and the precipitation in October is prec_10 and the annual temperature range Bio7. these environment changes. The largest contribution rate of the model to the model is more than 10%, so it is the most important environmental variable.3 for model construction. Under various climatic conditions, the area and location of the overwintering area of the grassland borer in China are extended and North moved to the north in the years of 2050s and 2070s. The area of the most suitable overwintering area is 1.41-2.94 times that of the present. The position of the center of mass moved northward to 78.79~226.97 km.. The results showed that the area of the future grass borer overwintering in China will not only expand, but also move northward. The innovation of this paper mainly manifests in: 1) the study reveals the effects of different temperature and humidity conditions on the survival of the eggs and larvae of the meadow borer and the development of the larvae, and the different temperature wet strips have been clarified. The regulation of the larvae to the migratory and reproductive ability of the adult worms, and the variation of the main life table parameters of the larvae and adults under the same temperature and humidity conditions; 2) the study revealed the effects of temperature and humidity on the flight and reproduction of the adult and the optimum temperature and humidity conditions of the adult's flight and reproduction. The optimum temperature and humidity conditions for the autonomous and passive flight of adults; 3) through the study and analysis of the temperature and humidity conditions in the field and the survival of the more winter insect source, the migration and migration, the occurrence of the adult and the degree of the harm of the larvae, it is clear that the temperature and humidity are the key environmental factors affecting the dynamic law of the field population of the grassland borer and the outbreak of the disaster. (4) the use of Max The ENT model predicted the changes in the overwintering area of the grassland borer in 2050s and 2070s years in China, and the results provided an important experimental basis for the study of the migration of the meadow borer and the dynamics of the population, and the improvement and improvement of the monitoring and forecasting techniques for the grassland borer.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)科學(xué)院
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：S433

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本文編號(hào)：2109853