本文選題：杉木人工林　切入點(diǎn)：氣候變化　出處：《福建農(nóng)林大學(xué)》2016年博士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：氣候變化是影響森林提供生態(tài)、經(jīng)濟(jì)和社會(huì)服務(wù)功能的重要威脅之一。大量的研究證實(shí),健康的、經(jīng)營(yíng)狀況良好的森林可作為碳匯吸收大氣中的二氧化碳,對(duì)減緩氣候變化的速度具有重要作用。隨著全球氣候的不斷變化,發(fā)展制定有效的森林經(jīng)營(yíng)管理策略以保持森林生態(tài)系統(tǒng)應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化的抵抗力與恢復(fù)能力對(duì)于森林經(jīng)營(yíng)單位而言也越來(lái)越重要。杉木是我國(guó)重要的經(jīng)濟(jì)樹(shù)種之一,具有廣闊的種植面積和較高的經(jīng)濟(jì)利用價(jià)值。杉木不僅是重要的木材纖維資源,在水土保持以及氣候調(diào)節(jié)等方面同樣發(fā)揮重要作用。由于其廣泛的種植面積和較高的二氧化碳固定潛力,杉木人工林的種植和經(jīng)營(yíng)也被認(rèn)為是我國(guó)溫室氣體減排戰(zhàn)略的重要組成部分。在全球氣候變化的復(fù)雜背景下,未來(lái)時(shí)期杉木的生產(chǎn)力及其地理位置分布都可能發(fā)生顯著的變化,從而對(duì)杉木林的生產(chǎn)經(jīng)營(yíng)管理產(chǎn)生重大影響。然而目前仍然很少有證據(jù)能夠表明以科學(xué)為基礎(chǔ)的決策制定過(guò)程被納入杉木林的經(jīng)營(yíng)管理活動(dòng)中。由此可見(jiàn),森林經(jīng)營(yíng)單位在制定杉木林經(jīng)營(yíng)適應(yīng)氣候變化策略以實(shí)現(xiàn)杉木林的可持續(xù)經(jīng)營(yíng)時(shí)依舊存在很大的不確定性。本研究以福建省順昌縣境內(nèi)杉木為主要優(yōu)勢(shì)樹(shù)種的林分區(qū)域?yàn)檠芯繉?duì)象,利用高精度高分辨率的氣候模型ClimateAP生成的氣候數(shù)據(jù),應(yīng)用直接降尺度的方法建立5種不同的氣候情景,用于FORECAST Climate模型對(duì)杉木林的生長(zhǎng)對(duì)氣候變化的響應(yīng)進(jìn)行模擬；根據(jù)收集的杉木分布現(xiàn)狀資料和ClimateAP生成的基準(zhǔn)期氣候數(shù)據(jù),運(yùn)用隨機(jī)森林算法建立杉木的氣候生態(tài)位模型,并應(yīng)用于對(duì)研究區(qū)杉木未來(lái)氣候變化條件下氣候生態(tài)位的變化的模擬預(yù)測(cè)；同時(shí)本研究還將研究區(qū)根據(jù)不同的森林生產(chǎn)力等級(jí)和森林經(jīng)營(yíng)類(lèi)型,將研究區(qū)劃分為14個(gè)不同的森林分析單元,并根據(jù)氣候變化情景、輪伐周期及采伐剩余面積比建立27個(gè)不同的杉木林經(jīng)營(yíng)情景,應(yīng)用Microsoft Excel軟件結(jié)合FORECAST Climate模型的輸出結(jié)果建立景觀水平的權(quán)衡分析工具LST模型,對(duì)杉木林經(jīng)營(yíng)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)效益及生態(tài)系統(tǒng)服務(wù)功能的影響的權(quán)衡進(jìn)行分析；最后,從公眾、森林經(jīng)營(yíng)單位和相關(guān)政府部門(mén)三個(gè)不同主體的角度,提出杉木應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化的適應(yīng)性經(jīng)營(yíng)策略與建議。主要研究結(jié)果如下：(1)根據(jù)所建立的不同氣候變化情景,研究區(qū)未來(lái)100年(2013-2112)平均溫度將會(huì)提高1.3℃-2.9℃；降水量的變化趨勢(shì)不明顯,其差異性主要體現(xiàn)在不同的GCM模型之間,CNRM-CM5 模型的預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果表現(xiàn)為更干燥。(2)未來(lái)氣候變化,溫度的不斷升高對(duì)研究區(qū)杉木的氣候生態(tài)位分布影響更為顯著。未來(lái)時(shí)期,在不控制溫室氣體排放情景下(RCP8.5)研究區(qū)杉木的氣候生態(tài)位分布范圍將受到比較大的影響。而采取有效的溫室氣體排放措施對(duì)這種情況有積極的緩解作用,根據(jù)預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果,在有效控制溫室氣體排放的情景下(RCP2.6),研究區(qū)杉木氣候生態(tài)位分布范圍在2050s及2080s時(shí)僅分別縮減了5.4%和12.4%。另外需要注意的是,本研究預(yù)測(cè)的是杉木的實(shí)際生態(tài)位,而杉木能否在當(dāng)前的氣候生態(tài)位范圍外生長(zhǎng)生存仍然未知,還應(yīng)作進(jìn)一步相關(guān)探討。(3)FORECAST Climate模型的適用性驗(yàn)證結(jié)果表明,基于模型輸出的8天周期的日氣候生長(zhǎng)響應(yīng)指數(shù)平均值與8天合成的MODIS凈光合作用產(chǎn)量相對(duì)值之間具有顯著的相關(guān)性(r=0.84,p0.0001),說(shuō)明模型具有較高的精度和合理的準(zhǔn)確性,能夠應(yīng)用于本研究區(qū)的相關(guān)研究。(4)氣候變化對(duì)杉木林林分生產(chǎn)力的提高具有積極的影響,杉木樹(shù)干生物量生產(chǎn)力第一個(gè)輪伐期(1-30年)提高3.9%～9.5%,第二個(gè)輪伐期(31-60年)提高3.9%～9.5%,到第三個(gè)輪伐期(61-90年)時(shí)提高5.3%～12.9%,這主要?dú)w因于氣候變化引起的生長(zhǎng)季節(jié)的逐漸延長(zhǎng)和養(yǎng)分循環(huán)速率的相應(yīng)增加。模型預(yù)測(cè)顯示盡管氣候變化會(huì)導(dǎo)致干旱季節(jié)杉木的水脅迫增大,然而與干旱相關(guān)的死亡率并未隨之增加。同樣重要的是要注意,如果未來(lái)氣候機(jī)制的變化會(huì)導(dǎo)致由于生物干擾與非生物干擾造成的死亡率的增加,那么本研究所預(yù)測(cè)的與氣候變化相關(guān)的杉木生長(zhǎng)的增加這一結(jié)果則可能無(wú)法實(shí)現(xiàn)。(5)建立的LST模型能夠作為森林經(jīng)營(yíng)單位的決策輔助工作,模型生成決策輸出矩陣允許使用者根據(jù)森林經(jīng)營(yíng)目的通過(guò)自行給定權(quán)重值決定各個(gè)權(quán)衡分析指標(biāo)的重要性以靈活地決定采用何種措施對(duì)森林進(jìn)行更好的經(jīng)營(yíng)管理。(6)為實(shí)現(xiàn)森林應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化的適應(yīng)性經(jīng)營(yíng),應(yīng)不斷提高公眾意識(shí)和參與度；森林經(jīng)營(yíng)單位應(yīng)積極轉(zhuǎn)變經(jīng)營(yíng)方式,實(shí)施有效的經(jīng)營(yíng)措施；政府部門(mén)應(yīng)充分發(fā)揮主導(dǎo)地位,促進(jìn)森林適應(yīng)性政策的制定、完善和實(shí)施。
[Abstract]:Climate change is one of the important influence of forest ecology, the threat of economic and social service function. A large number of studies confirmed that the health of the operating condition of the forest can be used as carbon sinks to absorb carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, which plays an important role in mitigating climate change speed. With the changing global climate, developing forest management strategies effective to maintain forest ecosystem response to climate change resistance and recovery capability is more and more important for the forest management unit. Chinese fir is one of the important economic species in China, economic value has wide planting area and high. Chinese fir is not only the important wood fiber resources, soil and water conservation and climate regulation other aspects also play an important role. Because of its wide potential of carbon dioxide fixed planting area and high, Chinese fir plantation and planting Business is also considered an important part of China's greenhouse gas emission reduction strategy. In the context of global climate change, the future productivity and the geographical distribution of Chinese fir are likely to occur during the period of significant change, and thus have a significant impact on the production and management of Chinese fir plantation. However, there is still little evidence to show that the process to develop science based decision making is included in the Chinese fir forest management activities. Thus, forest management units still exist great uncertainty in the formulation of sustainable management of Chinese fir forest management strategies to adapt to climate change in order to achieve the fir forest. In this study, Chinese fir in Shunchang County of Fujian Province as the dominant species in the forest area as the research object. Using the climate data climate model ClimateAP generates high accuracy and high resolution, method of application of direct downscaling establish 5 different The climate scenarios for FORECAST Climate in response to growth model of Chinese fir plantation to climate change were simulated according to the reference period; climate data of Chinese fir distribution data and ClimateAP generation collection, climatic niche model of Chinese fir by random forest algorithm, and applied to the study of Chinese fir simulation predict future changes in climate niche under climate change conditions; at the same time, this study will also study area according to the type and level of forest management and forest productivity is different, the study area is divided into 14 different forest units of analysis, and according to the climate change scenario, rotation cycle and slash area than the establishment of 27 different Chinese fir forest management scenarios, the application of Microsoft Excel FORECAST software with Climate model output trade-off analysis tool LST to establish the model of landscape level, the Chinese fir forest management on economic benefits and Weigh the impact on the ecosystem service functions were analyzed; finally, from the public, the forest management unit and the relevant government departments in three different perspective, puts forward the management strategies and suggestions of Chinese fir in response to climate change adaptation. The main results are as follows: (1) according to different climate change scenarios in the next 100 years of the study area (2013-2112) the average temperature will increase 1.3 -2.9 DEG C; variation trend of precipitation is not obvious, the difference is mainly reflected in between the different GCM models, the prediction result of CNRM-CM5 model is more dry. (2) the future climate change, increasing temperature affect the climate niche distribution in the study area of Chinese fir significant. In the future, to control greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP8.5) of Chinese fir climatic niche distribution will have a big impact. And take effective greenhouse gas Emissions mitigation measures actively to this condition, according to the forecast results, the effective control of greenhouse gas emissions scenario (RCP2.6), the study area of Chinese fir climate niche distribution in the range of 2050s and 2080s were only reduced by 5.4% and 12.4%. also need to pay attention to is, the prediction of the actual ecology of Chinese fir but, the survival of Chinese fir growth is still unknown in the current climate niche range, should be further discussed. (3) validation of FORECAST Climate model shows that, on the 8 day cycle climate model output growth response index average value has significant correlation between synthesis and 8 days of MODIS net based on the relative value of photosynthesis yield (r=0.84, P0.0001), shows that the model has higher accuracy and reasonable accuracy, can be applied to the research about the study area. (4) of Chinese fir forest climate Has a positive effect to improve the productivity of the forest, Chinese fir trunk biomass productivity first rotation period (1-30 years) increased by 3.9% ~ 9.5%, second rotation period (31-60 years) increased by 3.9% to 9.5% to third, a rotation period (61-90 years) increased 5.3% to 12.9%, which is mainly attributed to increased growth the season caused by climate change increases gradually and nutrient cycling rate. Model prediction shows that although climate change would lead to the dry season of Chinese fir water stress increased, however, drought related mortality was not increased. It is also important to note that if future climate change will lead to the mechanism due to increased interference caused by biological and non biological the interference of mortality, so the research and prediction of climate change related to increase the growth of Chinese fir results may not be achieved. (5) the establishment of the LST model can be used as a forest management unit The decision model, the output matrix allows the user to generate decision according to the values of various indicators of the importance of decision tradeoff analysis to decide on the measures for better management of forest management objective according to the given weights. (6) for the implementation of adaptive management of forest response to climate change, increasing public awareness and participation degree; forest management units should actively change the mode of operation, the implementation of effective management measures; government departments should give full play to the leading role, promote the development of forest adaptability policy, improvement and implementation.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：福建農(nóng)林大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：S791.27

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6 記者 趙慶國(guó);國(guó)家為應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化提供科技支撐[N];中國(guó)改革報(bào);2007年

7 黃勇;驅(qū)散氣候變化夢(mèng)魘[N];中國(guó)環(huán)境報(bào);2007年

8 黃勇;中國(guó)需積極應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化危機(jī)[N];中國(guó)環(huán)境報(bào);2007年

9 柳艷菊;應(yīng)對(duì)全球氣候變化中國(guó)邁出堅(jiān)實(shí)步伐[N];中國(guó)環(huán)境報(bào);2007年

10 本報(bào)記者 黃勇;聯(lián)大首次舉行氣候變化專(zhuān)題辯論[N];中國(guó)環(huán)境報(bào);2007年

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1 王t熺，

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