本文關(guān)鍵詞：國際鐵礦石供需格局逆轉(zhuǎn)后中國鐵礦石資源戰(zhàn)略儲備研究　出處：《昆明理工大學》2016年博士論文　論文類型：學位論文

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【摘要】：鋼鐵行業(yè)在中國經(jīng)濟結(jié)構(gòu)中占有極其重要的地位,鐵礦石的安全供應(yīng)不僅對中國鋼鐵行業(yè)的穩(wěn)定運行和發(fā)展具有非常重要的意義,對中國整體經(jīng)濟的可持續(xù)發(fā)展和社會穩(wěn)定也起到舉足輕重的作用。從全球范圍來看,鐵礦石是僅次于石油的第二大生產(chǎn)原材料商品。對于中國經(jīng)濟而言,鐵礦石資源的重要性不亞于石油。中國的鋼鐵生產(chǎn)以長流程鋼為主,粗鋼產(chǎn)量中90%的鐵元素來自于對鐵礦石冶煉,而國內(nèi)現(xiàn)有鐵礦石資源(自產(chǎn)礦)品位低、及開發(fā)成本高的現(xiàn)實態(tài)勢,迫使中國鋼鐵企業(yè)大量進口鐵礦石,繼而全行業(yè)對外依存度逐年攀高。尤其是進入21世紀的10余年期間,超過80%的鐵礦石從境外進口(進口礦)已成為常態(tài)。與此同時,海外鐵礦石低成本壟斷的供應(yīng)格局也已形成,中國已擁有的海外權(quán)益礦(境外權(quán)益礦)也生產(chǎn)成本過高的原因幾乎全軍覆沒。而我國鐵礦石進口資源地過于集中,進口礦石量的80%被國際礦業(yè)巨頭所掌控,政治、金融等潛在的不確定性供給風險正在劇增,未來中國鐵礦石資源價格的劇烈波動、供應(yīng)中斷等風險難以回避。為此,快速尋找到有效保障中國鋼鐵行業(yè)鐵礦石資源持續(xù)而穩(wěn)定發(fā)展的供應(yīng)策略及實施方案已迫在眉睫。本論文結(jié)合國務(wù)院發(fā)展研究中心“資源約束下的中國產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整”項目目標任務(wù)選題,立足于中國鐵礦石供給安全保障現(xiàn)狀,借鑒日本等鋼鐵強國的鐵礦石供應(yīng)經(jīng)驗,以中國的鐵礦石供應(yīng)結(jié)構(gòu)和市場運行中存在的安全風險、關(guān)鍵不確定性因素為切入點,在大量的實證調(diào)查和綜合分析基礎(chǔ)上,采用文獻調(diào)研、理論分析、比較研究、模型預測及實證與規(guī)范相結(jié)合的方法,刻畫中國鐵礦石戰(zhàn)略儲備實施過程中不確定因素的影響和作用,對其系列關(guān)鍵指標進行測算,進而提出系統(tǒng)的戰(zhàn)略儲備策略。本次主要取得以下主要成果與認識：(1)綜合分析全球及中國鐵礦石資源的分布、特性及生產(chǎn)貿(mào)易現(xiàn)狀的基礎(chǔ)上,查明了我國鐵礦石供應(yīng)存在結(jié)構(gòu)不合理和對外依存度高的安全隱患的原因,提出現(xiàn)階段直接購買鐵礦石或成品礦產(chǎn),建立鐵礦石戰(zhàn)略儲備是現(xiàn)階段破解我國鐵礦石供應(yīng)安全的唯一有效途徑。(2)結(jié)合中國鐵礦石自產(chǎn)礦、境外權(quán)益礦及進口礦等供應(yīng)格局現(xiàn)狀分析,提出并設(shè)計了一種景氣分析預測方法,并應(yīng)用于對中國粗鋼產(chǎn)量和鐵礦石供需規(guī)模的短期、長期預測,為鐵礦石儲備最優(yōu)規(guī)模確定提供了定量化的數(shù)據(jù)支撐。該方法預測準確性高,可為粗鋼產(chǎn)量的長期預測提供了校正標準。經(jīng)鐵平衡反推法,測算出中國未來5～10年的鐵礦石(以Fe2O3含量為62%的鐵精礦核算)年均需求量將保持在11～12億噸左右的規(guī)模水平。(3)參照國際石油儲備經(jīng)驗以及日本等鋼鐵強國的鐵礦石供應(yīng)體系,以政府服務(wù)社會實現(xiàn)消費者剩余利潤最大化為目標,立足鐵礦石資源戰(zhàn)略儲備面臨的基本問題,權(quán)衡鐵礦石供應(yīng)中斷風險損失和儲備收益,設(shè)計構(gòu)建了中國鐵礦石戰(zhàn)略儲備最優(yōu)規(guī)模的預測模型。對模型的穩(wěn)定性進行測算,得知中斷規(guī)模、以及鐵礦石價格需求彈性是我國鐵礦石戰(zhàn)略儲備最優(yōu)規(guī)模的主要影響因素。預測表明,如發(fā)生中斷規(guī)模為21天的10年一遇的鐵礦石供應(yīng)中斷危機,中國需要儲備3.1億噸鐵礦石。(4)借鑒以往經(jīng)典的石油戰(zhàn)略儲備研究,以鐵礦石儲備成本和期望風險損失最小為目標,設(shè)計構(gòu)建了中國鐵礦石資源戰(zhàn)略儲備隨機動態(tài)規(guī)劃模型(SIOR),可有效測算鐵礦石戰(zhàn)略儲備的吸儲、釋放和補倉規(guī)模。推算結(jié)果表明,如未來鐵礦石供應(yīng)中沒有發(fā)生中斷情況下,中國鐵礦石戰(zhàn)略儲備的規(guī)模應(yīng)從2016年起建立規(guī)模為2.32億噸的戰(zhàn)略資源儲備,2016年儲備量10500萬噸,接下來的每年儲備量逐漸減少,至2020年達到最優(yōu)戰(zhàn)略儲備規(guī)模；如在未來鐵礦石供應(yīng)中斷概率較高且程度較嚴重時,中國鐵礦石資源戰(zhàn)略儲備量將增加至3.1億噸,2016年儲備量11500萬噸,接下來的每年儲備量也比基礎(chǔ)狀態(tài)下的儲備量要多,至2022年達到最優(yōu)戰(zhàn)略儲備規(guī)模。(5)提出從國家層面建立適當規(guī)模的鐵礦石戰(zhàn)略儲備,才是解決鐵礦石供應(yīng)安全問題的根本手段,并提出了中國鐵礦石戰(zhàn)略儲備的實施策略建議。(6)本次提供的中國鐵礦石戰(zhàn)略儲備的方法體系和策略,可為中國鋼鐵行業(yè)及相關(guān)產(chǎn)業(yè)的穩(wěn)定運行,規(guī)避鐵礦石貿(mào)易風險,保障國民經(jīng)濟的穩(wěn)定健康發(fā)展,具有一定的指導作用。本研究對其它礦產(chǎn)資源的供應(yīng)安全、相關(guān)戰(zhàn)略和政策措施的制定,也具有較強的借鑒意義。
[Abstract]:The iron and steel industry plays a very important role in the China economic structure, security of supply of iron ore has very important significance for stable operation and development of China steel industry, sustainable development of Chinese overall economic and social stability has played an important role. From a global perspective, the iron ore is second after oil production the raw material goods. For China economy, the importance of iron ore resources as oil. China steel production process with long steel, iron steel output in 90% from the iron ore smelting, and domestic iron ore resources (ore production) low grade, high development cost and realistic situation the iron and steel enterprises, Chinese forced a large number of imported iron ore, and then the whole industry dependency rise year by year. Especially during the 10 years to twenty-first Century, more than 80% of iron ore from abroad Imports (import ore) has become the norm. At the same time, the low cost of overseas iron ore monopoly supply pattern has been formed, Chinese has overseas mining rights (overseas mining rights) also produce high cost reasons. But our country almost The whole army was wiped out. imports of iron ore resources are too concentrated, the amount of the imported iron ore 80% control. The international mining giant political uncertainty, risk of financial supply potential is increased, future volatility China iron ore prices, supply interruption risk is unavoidable. Therefore, the supply strategy and implementation plan to quickly find the iron ore resources in the effective protection of China's steel industry sustained and stable development in this thesis is imminent. The State Council Development Research Center "under resource constraints China industrial structure adjustment" project objectives and tasks based on the topic, China iron ore supply security situation, borrow The supply of iron ore in Japan iron and steel power experience, security risks exist in the iron ore supply structure and the market China operation, the key factors of uncertainty as the breakthrough point, in a large number of empirical investigation and comprehensive analysis on the basis of the literature research, theoretical analysis, comparative study, model prediction method and empirical and normative the combination of the uncertain factors and the role of characterization strategy of Chinese iron ore reserves of stone in the process of implementation, to calculate the range of key indicators, and then put forward the strategic reserve strategy. This system mainly has the following main results and understanding: (1) the distribution of global and China comprehensive analysis of iron ore resources, basic characteristics the production and trade situation, find out the reasons of China's iron ore supply structure is not reasonable and the high degree of dependence on foreign security risks, there is the direct purchase of iron ore or ore products Production, establish the strategic reserves of iron ore is the only effective way to crack the safe supply of iron ore in China. (2) combined with iron ore mining production Chinese, analysis of the current situation of the supply pattern of overseas mining rights and import ore, we propose and design a boom analysis prediction method, and applied to the scale of supply and demand China crude steel production of iron ore and short-term, long-term prediction for iron ore reserves provides quantitative data support to determine the optimal size. This method can provide high prediction accuracy, the calibration standard for long-term prediction of crude steel production. The iron balance backstepping method, calculate the Chinese future 5 ~ 10 years of iron ore (in Fe2O3 the content of iron concentrate) accounting for 62% of the annual demand will remain at 11 ~ 12 tons scale level. (3) the iron ore supply system according to the experience of international petroleum reserve and Japan iron and steel power, to achieve social service government Consumer surplus profit maximization as the goal, based on the basic problems of iron ore resources strategic reserves, balance of iron ore supply disruption risk loss and reserve earnings, design and construct the prediction model of China iron ore strategic reserves the optimal scale. To evaluate the stability of the model, that interrupts the scale, and the iron ore price elasticity of demand is the main factor effect of the optimal size of the strategic reserves of iron ore in China. The prediction shows that such as disruption of iron ore supply disruptions in the scale of the crisis for the 21 day of the 10 years, Chinese need to reserve 3.1 tonnes of iron ore. (4) Research on the strategic petroleum reserve classic past, iron ore reserves and to minimize the cost of expected risk loss as the target design and construct the strategic reserves of iron ore resources Chinese stochastic dynamic programming model (SIOR), can effectively measure the strategic reserves of iron ore deposit taking, release and re. Die. The results of calculation show that if the supply of iron ore in future without interruption, a scale of 2.32 tons of strategic resource reserve strategy China iron ore stone scale from 2016 2016, reserves of 105 million tons, the annual amount of reserves next gradually reduced to 2020 to achieve the optimal strategy as in the future iron ore reserve scale; stone supply disruption probability is higher and the degree is serious, the strategic reserves of iron ore resources Chinese volume will increase to 3.1 tons in 2016, reserves 115 million tons, the annual amount of reserves next than the reserves of the basic state more, to 2022 to achieve the optimal strategic reserve scale. (5) proposed the establishment of appropriate strategic reserves of iron ore the scale from the national level, is a fundamental means to solve the problem of security of supply of iron ore, and puts forward some suggestions of implementing strategy strategy. Chinese stone reserves of iron ore (6) provided this time System and methods Chinese strategic reserves of iron ore, for the stable operation of Chinese steel industry and related industries, to avoid the risk of iron ore trade, to ensure the stable and healthy development of the national economy, has a guiding role. This study supply security of other mineral resources, formulate relevant strategies and measures, also has a strong reference.

【學位授予單位】：昆明理工大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F416.1
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本文編號：1409748