發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-01-11 02:31

  本文關(guān)鍵詞：中國(guó)與絲綢之路經(jīng)濟(jì)帶沿線國(guó)家農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易增長(zhǎng)潛力及路徑研究　出處：《新疆農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)》2016年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

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【摘要】：從國(guó)內(nèi)農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展的需要出發(fā),順應(yīng)經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化,實(shí)施充分利用國(guó)內(nèi)外兩種資源和兩個(gè)市場(chǎng)的“走出去”發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略,提高農(nóng)產(chǎn)品供給安全保障程度已成為我國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展的戰(zhàn)略目標(biāo)選擇。為提高應(yīng)變能力,分散風(fēng)險(xiǎn),減少貿(mào)易摩擦,中國(guó)應(yīng)大力開(kāi)拓亞洲市場(chǎng),加強(qiáng)與周邊國(guó)家的農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易合作,這樣一方面可以營(yíng)造和諧、共贏、互助的農(nóng)業(yè)國(guó)際合作發(fā)展環(huán)境,另一方面也可以根據(jù)具體情況適時(shí)調(diào)整農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)略,以便獲取區(qū)域市場(chǎng)開(kāi)放的利益和貿(mào)易創(chuàng)造的利益,通過(guò)優(yōu)勢(shì)互補(bǔ)獲得經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展所需的資源�！敖z綢之路經(jīng)濟(jì)帶”戰(zhàn)略是我國(guó)主動(dòng)提出的促進(jìn)區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)合作的戰(zhàn)略構(gòu)想,是東牽活躍的亞太經(jīng)濟(jì)圈,西聯(lián)發(fā)達(dá)的歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)圈,輻射30多個(gè)國(guó)家,是世界性的戰(zhàn)略增長(zhǎng)極,最具有發(fā)展?jié)摿Φ囊粭l經(jīng)濟(jì)走廊。中國(guó)與絲綢之路經(jīng)濟(jì)帶沿線國(guó)家(簡(jiǎn)稱經(jīng)濟(jì)帶沿線國(guó)家,下同)具有雙邊貿(mào)易發(fā)展的農(nóng)業(yè)資源、地緣優(yōu)勢(shì)及政策優(yōu)勢(shì)�！敖z綢之路經(jīng)濟(jì)帶”發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略的提出,為中國(guó)與經(jīng)濟(jì)帶沿線國(guó)家通過(guò)合適雙邊的農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易方式,不斷擴(kuò)大雙邊農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易規(guī)模,充分實(shí)現(xiàn)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易的互補(bǔ)性和互利性創(chuàng)造了有利條件。對(duì)我國(guó)來(lái)講,這種選擇對(duì)實(shí)現(xiàn)我國(guó)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口市場(chǎng)多元化戰(zhàn)略,提高我國(guó)糧食安全和資源型產(chǎn)品保障程度以及更好滿足人們多樣化的農(nóng)產(chǎn)品需求具有深遠(yuǎn)的戰(zhàn)略意義。因此,我國(guó)應(yīng)在絲綢之路經(jīng)濟(jì)帶戰(zhàn)略構(gòu)想中,發(fā)展中國(guó)與經(jīng)濟(jì)帶沿線國(guó)家的農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易額操作性問(wèn)題,積極推動(dòng)雙邊農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易的發(fā)展。本文以國(guó)際貿(mào)易理論和區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)合作理論為基礎(chǔ),分析共建“絲綢之路經(jīng)濟(jì)帶”戰(zhàn)略構(gòu)想下中國(guó)與經(jīng)濟(jì)帶沿線國(guó)家農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易增長(zhǎng)潛力及路徑問(wèn)題。論文主要思路構(gòu)想如下：(1)中國(guó)與經(jīng)濟(jì)帶沿線國(guó)家農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易增長(zhǎng)條件分析,在闡述雙邊貿(mào)易特征和貿(mào)易平衡狀況基礎(chǔ)上,從貿(mào)易不足、互補(bǔ)條件、競(jìng)爭(zhēng)條件、貿(mào)易政治條件等四方面探討雙邊貿(mào)易增長(zhǎng)的條件；(2)中國(guó)與經(jīng)濟(jì)帶沿線國(guó)家農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易規(guī)模增長(zhǎng)潛力分析,運(yùn)用貿(mào)易引力模型測(cè)算中國(guó)與經(jīng)濟(jì)帶沿線國(guó)家農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易規(guī)�！安蛔恪焙汀斑^(guò)�！睜顩r；(3)中國(guó)與經(jīng)濟(jì)帶沿線國(guó)家農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化潛力分析,從貿(mào)易市場(chǎng)結(jié)構(gòu)、產(chǎn)品結(jié)構(gòu)和貿(mào)易模式等三方面分析雙邊貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化的可能性,為雙邊農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易增長(zhǎng)的路徑選擇提供較為清晰的思路；(4)中國(guó)與經(jīng)濟(jì)帶國(guó)家農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易增長(zhǎng)影響因素,通過(guò)分析貿(mào)易保護(hù)、國(guó)內(nèi)貿(mào)易條件變化和經(jīng)濟(jì)帶沿線國(guó)家貿(mào)易政策多變對(duì)雙邊農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易的影響,尋找雙邊貿(mào)易波動(dòng)的原因；(5)中國(guó)與經(jīng)濟(jì)帶沿線國(guó)家農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易增長(zhǎng)路徑選擇；(6)中國(guó)與經(jīng)濟(jì)帶沿線國(guó)家農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易增長(zhǎng)的保障措施,為了保證雙邊農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易增長(zhǎng)路徑達(dá)到預(yù)期的目標(biāo),提出加速雙邊農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易增長(zhǎng)的必要措施。(7)本研究結(jié)論與今后研究的展望。通過(guò)以上分析得出以下結(jié)論：(1)中國(guó)與經(jīng)濟(jì)帶沿線國(guó)家農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易規(guī)模在波動(dòng)中增長(zhǎng),進(jìn)出口市場(chǎng)和產(chǎn)品結(jié)構(gòu)集中度較高。雙邊貿(mào)易中,我國(guó)處于逆差地位,在各自對(duì)外貿(mào)易中的地位仍然偏低,貿(mào)易互補(bǔ)性強(qiáng)、競(jìng)爭(zhēng)不激烈,具有貿(mào)易增長(zhǎng)的政治條件等優(yōu)勢(shì)條件,今后雙邊農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易增長(zhǎng)潛力較大。(2)中國(guó)與經(jīng)濟(jì)帶多數(shù)沿線國(guó)家進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易屬于貿(mào)易“不足”,為此我國(guó)應(yīng)準(zhǔn)定市場(chǎng)定位,重點(diǎn)市場(chǎng)戰(zhàn)略布局調(diào)整到周邊國(guó)家。(3)中國(guó)與經(jīng)濟(jì)帶沿線國(guó)家出口農(nóng)產(chǎn)品依賴性強(qiáng)的產(chǎn)品類型多于進(jìn)口,說(shuō)明出口產(chǎn)品結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化潛力大于進(jìn)口。雙邊貿(mào)易中多數(shù)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品類型體現(xiàn)為性質(zhì)穩(wěn)定的產(chǎn)業(yè)間貿(mào)易為主特征。(4)貿(mào)易保護(hù)、國(guó)內(nèi)貿(mào)易條件的變化對(duì)中國(guó)與經(jīng)濟(jì)帶沿線國(guó)家農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易具有抑制作用,各種優(yōu)惠貿(mào)易安排具有促進(jìn)作用。中國(guó)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)帶沿線國(guó)家農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口增長(zhǎng)主要來(lái)自于結(jié)構(gòu)效應(yīng),說(shuō)明中國(guó)出口、經(jīng)濟(jì)帶沿線國(guó)家進(jìn)口之間匹配程度較高。(5)結(jié)合以上章節(jié)研究總結(jié)并綜合考慮資源稟賦、貿(mào)易互補(bǔ)性、市場(chǎng)需求、國(guó)家關(guān)系和地緣優(yōu)勢(shì)因素的基礎(chǔ)上,本文認(rèn)為中國(guó)未來(lái)應(yīng)優(yōu)先選擇與中亞五國(guó)、俄羅斯、烏克蘭、印度、土耳其、伊朗、巴基斯坦、荷蘭、德國(guó)及法國(guó)等國(guó)家,雙方在水產(chǎn)類、谷物類、紡織纖維、果蔬類、乳蛋類及油籽類上的貿(mào)易合作。
[Abstract]:Based on the theory of international trade theory and regional economic cooperation , the paper analyzes the development environment of agricultural trade between China and the economic zone . ( 4 ) China and the economy zone along the line the country ' s agricultural product trade growth path choice ; ( 6 ) China and the economic zone along the country agricultural product trade growth path choice ; ( 6 ) China and the economic zone along the country agricultural product trade growth path choice ; ( 6 ) China and the economic zone along the country agricultural product trade growth path choice ; ( 6 ) China and the economic zone along the line the country agricultural product trade growth path choice ; ( 4 ) China and the economic zone along the line the country agricultural product trade growth path choice ; ( 4 ) China and the economic zone along the line the country agricultural product trade growth path choice ; ( 4 ) China and the economic zone the country agricultural product export growth is the main characteristic . ( 5 ) On the basis of the above - mentioned research and summing up the factors of resource endowment , trade complementarity , market demand , national relations and geographical advantages , this paper believes that China ' s future should give priority to the trade cooperation with the five countries of Central Asia , Russia , Ukraine , India , Turkey , Iran , Pakistan , the Netherlands , Germany and France .

【學(xué)位授予單位】：新疆農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號(hào)】：F323.7;F752.7
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本文編號(hào)：1407802