發(fā)布時間：2018-01-01 03:21

  本文關鍵詞：各國經濟自治下全球氣候合作治理政策模擬及系統(tǒng)研發(fā)　出處：《華東師范大學》2017年博士論文　論文類型：學位論文

  更多相關文章： 集成評估模型 CGE模型 碳排放 政策模擬 區(qū)域經濟增長 全球碳減排

【摘要】：由氣候變化所導致的全球升溫及由此引發(fā)的一系列生態(tài)、環(huán)境問題,嚴重影響到人類的健康、社會的發(fā)展等方面,如何應對氣候變化成為當前學術界關注的焦點。同時包含經濟系統(tǒng)和氣候系統(tǒng)的IAM(Integrated Assessment Model),作為目前最為全面的氣候變化集成模型,已被廣泛地應用于全球氣候治理方案的評估中。然而,大部分IAM的經濟系統(tǒng)采用宏觀經濟模型,缺乏對國家內部產業(yè)間經濟的反應;碳排放計算模塊未考慮到不同能源種類的差異,導致對碳排放總量的模擬存在一定的偏差。另一個現(xiàn)實的問題,全球經濟出現(xiàn)逆全球化現(xiàn)象,各國經濟創(chuàng)新呈現(xiàn)出"各顧各"的發(fā)展特點。因此,我們針對各國經濟分別建立一般均衡系統(tǒng),以逼近真實經濟,再通過國際貿易對國際經濟GDP溢出進行描述,來刻畫全球經濟。這個經濟模型既能夠反映各國經濟獨自的尋優(yōu)行為,又關聯(lián)了全球經濟。本文完善發(fā)展了著名的DICE模型的擴展版MERICES模型,建立各國獨立的CGE模型,添加能源消費結構,最終構建了一個包含經濟系統(tǒng)、碳循環(huán)系統(tǒng)、氣候反饋模塊及其他統(tǒng)計輔助模塊的新型集成評估模型一—EMRICES-2017(擴展的多區(qū)域氣候經濟學集成評估系統(tǒng),Expanded Multi-Regional Intergated model of Climate and Economy System,2017 表明本文的系統(tǒng)具有繼承性和歷史聯(lián)系性)。在經濟系統(tǒng)方面,實現(xiàn)國家內部的經濟均衡發(fā)展,EMRICES-2017構建了各個區(qū)域CGE模型,以反映經濟發(fā)展的"各顧各"現(xiàn)象;在碳循環(huán)方面,為細致地刻畫能源結構,增加能源消費模塊,將能源種類細分為煤、油、天然氣和非化石能源四類,實現(xiàn)技術進步內生化,引入隨機沖擊,改進了碳循環(huán)系統(tǒng),最終實現(xiàn)CGE模型與氣候集成評估模型的耦合。基于世界銀行的分類標準,本文的研究區(qū)域為低收入國家、中等偏下收入國家、中等偏上收入國家、高收入國家、歐盟、中國、美國、俄羅斯、印度、日本,由于數(shù)據(jù)的可獲取性,中國、美國、俄羅斯、印度、日本的經濟模型為包含34個產業(yè)部門的CGE模型。在上述模型改進的基礎上,本文通過分情景模擬分析,選擇與真實情景最為接近的能源技術沖擊情景作為基準情景,對世界各國或地區(qū)未來的經濟發(fā)展形勢和碳排放趨勢進行了預測,分析了這些國家的產業(yè)結構、能源消費結構的變化,并模擬了不同技術進步導致的不同能源強度對各國或地區(qū)發(fā)展形勢的影響。最后為了滿足全球環(huán)境治理需求,對目前各國所提出的國家自主貢獻(Intended Nationally Determined Contributions,INDCs)減排目標的效果進行模擬分析。通過模擬和分析,本文得到的主要研究結論如下:(1)在基準情景下,中國的GDP將在2046年超過歐盟,在2051年超過美國成為全球第一大經濟體。美國、歐盟等發(fā)達國家的經濟發(fā)展速度較慢,但人均GDP較高。全球碳排量呈現(xiàn)出先上升后下降的趨勢,到2100年全球將升溫3.38℃。中國碳高峰出現(xiàn)在2033年;歐盟的碳高峰出現(xiàn)在2028年;俄羅斯的碳高峰出現(xiàn)在2072年;印度的碳高峰出現(xiàn)在2059年;中等偏上收入國家的碳高峰出現(xiàn)在2057年;中等偏下收入國家的碳高峰出現(xiàn)在2076年;低收入國家的碳排放量一直處于上升趨勢;美國和日本的碳排放則呈現(xiàn)出一直下降的趨勢。(2)對主要國家(中國、美國、日本、印度、俄羅斯)的產業(yè)結構研究結果表明,第一產業(yè)占比下降是大多數(shù)國家經濟結構發(fā)展的基本規(guī)律;發(fā)展中國家的產業(yè)結構變動幅度往往要大于發(fā)達國家,而變動幅度隨著模擬時間的推移逐漸減小。中國、印度和俄羅斯的第二產業(yè)占比在模擬期間保持上升趨勢,中國初始第二產業(yè)占比基數(shù)大,但印度的第二產業(yè)占比增加速度遠遠大于中國和俄羅斯,在模擬的后期其第二產業(yè)占比與中國的接近。(3)對主要國家(中國、美國、日本、印度、俄羅斯)的能源消費結構研究結果表明,非化石能源和天然氣在模擬后期成為大多數(shù)國家主要的能源種類,中國、印度的能源消費結構中,煤所占的比例有所下降,但美國、日本、俄羅斯的能源消費結構中煤所占的比例卻有所上升。(4)在完全自由排放情景下,即主要國家的能源消費結構保持2009年能源消費系數(shù)矩陣至2100年,全球將升溫4.92℃。在此情景下,模擬后期由于氣候系統(tǒng)的負面反饋,部分國家的經濟出現(xiàn)衰退。日本、美國和中國的經濟分別在2054年、2074年和2087年左右出現(xiàn)衰退,歐盟和中等偏上收入國家經濟衰退分別出現(xiàn)在2082年和2088年。因此,實行碳減排政策,不僅是對全球氣候治理的貢獻,更是對自身經濟發(fā)展的一種貢獻。(5)在歷史演化情景下,即采用歷史能源消耗強度進行預測,到2100年全球碳高峰出現(xiàn)在2069年,全球將升溫3.06℃,與基準情景相比下降了 0.31℃。(6)在INDC約束情景下,即各國家或地區(qū)在目標年份(2030年,美國為2025年)實現(xiàn)其提出的INDC減排目標,目標年份之后保持碳排放量不增加發(fā)展至2100年,全球碳排放在2030-2100年間呈現(xiàn)先不變后下降的趨勢,全球將升溫2.61 ℃,相比較與基準情景下降了 0.76℃,仍然高于升溫2℃的目標。換言之,按INDC承諾,不可能實現(xiàn)21世紀末控制全球升溫2℃的氣候目標。
[Abstract]:Caused by climate change and global warming caused a series of ecological and environmental problems, a serious threat to human health, development and other aspects of society, how to deal with climate change has become the focus of attention of the academic circles. At the same time, including the economic system and the climate system IAM (Integrated Assessment Model), as currently the most climate change of comprehensive integration model, has been widely used in the assessment of climate governance programs in the world. However, most of the IAM economic system using macroeconomic model, the lack of internal economy between countries reaction; carbon emissions calculation module is not taking into account the difference between the different types of energy, leading to the existence of certain deviation on the simulation of the total carbon discharge. Another practical problem, the global economy has the inverse phenomenon of globalization, economic innovation presents "the development characteristics of the Gu". Therefore, we focus on The general equilibrium system are established to approximate the real economy, economy, and the international economic GDP spillover is described in international trade, to characterize the global economy. This economic model can not only reflect the searching behavior of world economy alone, and associated with the global economy. The extended version of this MERICES model and improve the development of the famous DICE model. The establishment of CGE model, independent countries, adding the energy consumption structure, set up an economic system including, carbon cycle, climate feedback module and other auxiliary modules of the new integrated statistical evaluation model of EMRICES-2017 (multi regional climate economics integrated evaluation system, the extended Expanded Multi-Regional Intergated model of Climate and Economy System, 2017 this paper shows that the system has inherited and historical connection). In the economic system, realize the national economy balanced internal hair The exhibition, EMRICES-2017 construction of various regional CGE model, to their own "phenomenon of economic development"; in the carbon cycle, for the detailed description of the energy structure, increase the energy consumption of energy will be divided into modules, types of coal, oil, natural gas and non fossil fuels in four categories, the technical progress in biochemistry the introduction of random shocks, improved the carbon cycle system, finally realize the coupling of CGE model and climate integrated assessment model. Based on the classification criteria of the world bank, the research area for low-income countries, middle-income countries, middle income countries, high-income countries, the European Union, the United States, Russia, China, India. Japan, due to the availability of data, China, the United States, Russia, India, Japan's economic model CGE model consists of 34 sectors. Based on the improved model, this paper analyzes the scenario simulation, selection and real The scene as close as the energy technology shock scenario baseline scenario, to other countries and regions in the world of the future economic development situation and trend of carbon emissions were predicted, the analysis of the industrial structure, the change of energy consumption structure, the influence of different energy intensity and simulate the different technological progress caused by the developing situation of the countries or regions finally. In order to meet the needs of global environmental governance, the national independent contribution which proposed to the present country (Intended Nationally Determined Contributions, INDCs) were simulated and analyzed the effect of emission reduction targets. Through simulation and analysis, the main conclusions are as follows: (1) under the baseline scenario, the GDP will exceed the EU in China in 2046, more than the United States in 2051 to become the world's largest economy. The United States, European Union and other developed countries, the slow pace of economic development, but the per capita GDP global high. Carbon emissions showed a downward trend after the first rise, in 2100 the world will rise by 3.38 degrees. China carbon peak in 2033; the EU's carbon peak in 2028; Russia's carbon peak in 2072; India's carbon peak in 2059; the middle-income countries on the carbon peak in 2057; medium lower income countries carbon peak in 2076; carbon emissions in low income countries has been rising; the United States and Japan's carbon emissions show has been decreased. (2) of the major countries (the United States, Chinese, Japan, India, Russia) the industrial structure research results show that the proportion of the first industry fall is the basic rule of the development of economic structure in most countries; changes of industrial structure in developing countries is often greater than the developed countries, and changes in the magnitude of simulated over time was gradually decreased. Chinese, and India Russia's second industries accounted for in the simulation period keep rising trend, Chinese initial second industries accounted for the base, but India's second industry accounted for the increase rate is far greater than Chinese and Russia, in late second the simulation industry accounted for close to Chinese. (3) of the main countries (China, America, Japan and India, Russia) to study the structure of energy consumption. The results show that the non fossil energy and natural gas has become the main source of energy in most countries in the late China simulation, species, India's energy consumption structure, coal accounted for the proportion has declined, but the United States, Japan, Russia's coal energy consumption structure accounted for ratio has declined. Rise. (4) in a completely free emission scenario, the energy consumption structure is the main countries maintain 2009 energy consumption coefficient matrix to 2100, global warming will be 4.92 degrees. In this case, the simulation of late due to gas When the negative feedback system, part of the country's economic recession. In Japan, the United States and China economy respectively in 2054, 2074 and 2087 about a recession, the European Union and the middle income countries the economic recession in 2082 and 2088 respectively. Therefore, the implementation of carbon emission reduction policies, not only for the global climate governance more contribution. Is a contribution to its economic development. (5) in the historical evolution scenario, the history of energy consumption intensity forecasts, by 2100 global carbon peaked in 2069, global warming will be 3.06 degrees, compared with a decrease of 0.31 degrees. The baseline scenario (6) in the INDC restriction scenario, namely each country in the target year (2030 to 2025, America) to achieve the objectives of the proposed INDC reduction, keep carbon emissions without increasing development to 2100 target year, global carbon emissions in 2030-2100 years after the first. The trend of global warming will increase by 2.61 degrees. Compared with the baseline scenario, it will decrease by 0.76 degrees, which is still higher than the target of heating up to 2 degrees. In other words, according to INDC's commitment, it is impossible to achieve the goal of controlling global warming by 2 at the end of twenty-first Century.

【學位授予單位】：華東師范大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F114.4;P467
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本文編號：1362713