利用中尺度數(shù)值氣象模式預(yù)報(bào)大氣光學(xué)湍流
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-11-23 16:30
【摘要】：光學(xué)湍流效應(yīng)是制約光電工程應(yīng)用的重要影響因素,定量描述湍流效應(yīng)與折射率結(jié)構(gòu)常數(shù)(C_n~2)有關(guān)。對(duì)于具體的光電工程應(yīng)用,一般可以用多種測量儀器進(jìn)行C_n~2的實(shí)時(shí)實(shí)地測量,以定量分析湍流效應(yīng)。然而,在許多光電工程的設(shè)計(jì)及可能的應(yīng)用場景中,需要對(duì)應(yīng)用場景的C_n~2進(jìn)行大范圍、長期系統(tǒng)地測量,這是測量儀器難以勝任的。近十多年來,利用中尺度數(shù)值氣象模式獲取大氣光學(xué)湍流參數(shù)逐漸成為國際上較為關(guān)注的研究熱點(diǎn),為此我們嘗試開展了利用數(shù)值氣象模式(WRF)預(yù)報(bào)C_n~2廓線及其隨時(shí)間變化特征的研究。本文總結(jié)了國內(nèi)外C_n~2建模以及預(yù)報(bào)模型研究的基礎(chǔ)上,開展了利用WRF模式預(yù)報(bào)麗江高美古天文觀測站、茂名博賀海洋觀測站、新疆庫爾勒地區(qū)的C_n~2廓線以及不同下墊面(南海近海面、南極泰山站冰雪面、成都內(nèi)陸等)C_n~2時(shí)間演變特征的研究。本文主要圍繞WRF模式預(yù)報(bào)C_n~2的技術(shù)特點(diǎn)和難點(diǎn)以及可行性,開展了以下幾方面的研究工作:1.詳細(xì)介紹了 WRF模式基本情況包括模式框架、坐標(biāo)方程、物理參數(shù)過程等,同時(shí)介紹了 WRF模式在PC機(jī)上的安裝流程、初始場數(shù)據(jù)的使用以及調(diào)試運(yùn)行等。2.用常規(guī)氣象參數(shù)估算C_n~2廓線的方法主要是依據(jù)Tatarskii模式,而Tatarskii模式中外尺度是關(guān)鍵參數(shù),但難以直接測量。研究對(duì)比了四種外尺度參數(shù)化模式(Dewan模式、Coulman模式、Sterenborg模式和HMNSP99模式)。用探空氣球?qū)崪y的常規(guī)氣象參數(shù)估算的C_n~2廓線與湍流氣象探空儀實(shí)測的C_n~2廓線進(jìn)行對(duì)比。發(fā)現(xiàn)采用四種外尺度模式估算的C_n~2廓線無論在變化趨勢上還是量級(jí)上,四種模式之間的差異都很大。發(fā)現(xiàn)在與外尺度有關(guān)的如溫度梯度、風(fēng)速梯度、Richardson數(shù)等幾個(gè)參數(shù)中,加入了溫度梯度和風(fēng)速梯度的HMNSP99外尺度模式估算的C2與測量的C_n~2在變化趨勢和量級(jí)上最為接近。3.基于WRF模式,結(jié)合Tatarskii模式和HMNSP99模式分別預(yù)報(bào)了高美古、茂名以及庫爾勒等三個(gè)典型地區(qū)的溫度、風(fēng)速和C_n~2廓線,并用湍流氣象探空儀實(shí)測的相應(yīng)廓線作為對(duì)比。結(jié)果表明:WRF預(yù)報(bào)的溫度和風(fēng)速廓線與三個(gè)地區(qū)的探空實(shí)測結(jié)果非常接近,相關(guān)性可分別達(dá)到90%、80%以上。預(yù)報(bào)的C_n~2廓線基本滿足C_n~2隨高度變化的特征,相關(guān)性在75%左右,但C_n~2廓線的變化細(xì)節(jié)與實(shí)測值差異稍大。三個(gè)典型地區(qū)氣候類型各異,表現(xiàn)出的C_n~2廓線分布特征也具有明顯的氣候類型差異。總體來說WRF預(yù)報(bào)的高美古地區(qū)的C_n~2廓線要好于在茂名和庫爾勒地區(qū)的預(yù)報(bào)值。4.以Monin-Obukhov相似理論為依據(jù)并結(jié)合Bulk空氣動(dòng)力學(xué)方法,利用WRF模式預(yù)報(bào)了中國南海近海面上、中國南極泰山站冰雪面上以及中國內(nèi)陸成都地區(qū)近地面層常規(guī)氣象參數(shù)(如溫度、濕度、風(fēng)速、風(fēng)向,等)和C_n~2。用自動(dòng)氣象站和溫度脈動(dòng)儀實(shí)測的近地面層常規(guī)氣象參數(shù)以及C_n~2作為對(duì)比驗(yàn)證,結(jié)果顯示W(wǎng)RF預(yù)報(bào)的近地面層常規(guī)氣象參數(shù)以及C_n~2與實(shí)測值吻合的較好,而且預(yù)報(bào)值能夠準(zhǔn)確地反映出近海面上,冰雪面上的常規(guī)氣象參數(shù)以及C的日變化特征。使用了如平均偏差(Bias)、均方根誤差(RMSE)、糾正偏差(σ)、相關(guān)系數(shù)(Rxy)、列聯(lián)表等統(tǒng)計(jì)工具分析了預(yù)報(bào)值的穩(wěn)定性和可靠性,其相關(guān)統(tǒng)計(jì)結(jié)果是令人滿意的。成都、南海以及南極泰山站在一定程度上代表了陸地、海面以及冰雪面等典型的下墊面類型,從對(duì)比結(jié)果可以看出C_n~2的日變化特征具有顯著的地域性差異�？傮w來看,WRF模擬冰雪面上的C_n~2與實(shí)測結(jié)果吻合的最好,海面上次之,陸地上最差。陸地上的環(huán)境更加復(fù)雜多變,測量點(diǎn)受周圍影響較大,并且模式的水平分辨率有限,這些因素可能是陸地上預(yù)報(bào)值與測量值差異較大的原因。通過在高美古、茂名、庫爾勒三個(gè)典型地區(qū)以及陸地、海面、冰雪面等不同下墊面的C_n~2的估算預(yù)報(bào)和測量對(duì)比表明,利用WRF模式預(yù)報(bào)的C_n~2廓線和近地面層C_n~2在變化趨勢和量級(jí)上與實(shí)測數(shù)據(jù)基本相符合,但在WRF模式預(yù)報(bào)的常規(guī)氣象參數(shù)的空間分辨率和精度、不同下墊面的光學(xué)湍流參數(shù)化方法等方面還需要進(jìn)一步的改進(jìn)和完善。
[Abstract]:The optical turbulence effect is an important factor that restricts the application of the photoelectric engineering, and the quantitative description of the turbulence effect is related to the refractive index structure constant (C _ n ~ 2). In this paper, the real-time field measurement of C _ n ~ (2) can be carried out with a variety of measuring instruments for the specific photoelectric engineering application, so as to quantitatively analyze the turbulence effect. However, in many photoelectric engineering design and possible application scenarios, it is necessary to measure the C _ n ~ 2 of the application scene for a long time, which is difficult for measuring instruments. In recent ten years, using the mesoscale numerical weather model to acquire the atmospheric optical turbulence parameters has become a hot topic of international interest, and we have tried to use the numerical weather pattern (WRF) to forecast the C _ n ~ 2 profile line and its time-changing characteristics. On the basis of the study of the models of C _ n ~ 2 and the research of the forecasting model, this paper has carried out the study on the model of WRF for the prediction of the high-quality ancient astronomical observatory of Lijiang, the Ocean Observatory of Maoming Boga, the C _ n ~ 2 contour lines in the Korla region of Xinjiang, and the different subsides (the near-sea surface of the South China Sea and the ice and snow surface of the Mount Tai Station, Study on the characteristics of the time evolution of c _ n ~ 2 in the inland of chengdu). In this paper, the technical characteristics, difficulties and feasibility of C _ n ~ (2) are predicted mainly around WRF mode, and the following research work is carried out: 1. The basic situation of WRF mode is described in detail, including the mode frame, the coordinate equation, the physical parameter process, etc. The installation process of WRF mode on the PC, the use of the initial field data and the operation of the debugging are also introduced. The method for estimating the C _ n ~ 2 contour line by the regular meteorological parameters is mainly based on the Tatiarskii mode, while the Chinese and foreign dimensions of the Tatiareskii mode are the key parameters, but it is difficult to measure directly. Four out-of-scale parametric modes (Dewan mode, Coulman model, Sterigenborg mode, and HMNSP99 mode) are compared. The C _ n ~ 2 contour line estimated by the conventional meteorological parameters measured by the sounding balloon is compared with the measured C _ n ~ 2 contour line of the turbulent meteorological sounding instrument. It is found that the C _ n ~ 2 contour lines, which are estimated by the four out-scale modes, are both on the order of change or on the order of magnitude, and the difference between the four modes is very large. It is found that in several parameters, such as temperature gradient, wind speed gradient, Richardson number and so on, C2 and measured C _ n ~ (2) of the HMNSP99 external-scale model with temperature gradient and wind speed gradient is the closest to the variation trend and magnitude. Based on WRF model, the temperature, wind speed and C _ n ~ 2 contour line of the three typical areas, such as the high, the Maoming and the Korla, are predicted in combination with the Tatoskii mode and the HMNSP99 mode, and the corresponding contour lines measured by the turbulence meteorological sounding instrument are used as the comparison. The results show that the temperature and the profile line of WRF are very close to that of the three areas, and the correlation can reach 90% and more than 80%, respectively. The predicted C _ n ~ 2 profile basically satisfies the characteristics of the height variation of C _ n ~ (2), the correlation is about 75%, but the variation of the C _ n ~ 2 profile line is slightly different from the measured value. The climate types of the three typical regions are different, and the distribution characteristics of the C _ n ~ 2 profile also have obvious climatic types. In general, the C _ n ~ 2 contour line in the high-US-old region of WRF forecast is better than the forecast value in Maoming and Kuril area. The general meteorological parameters (such as temperature, humidity, wind speed, wind direction, and the like) and C _ n ~ (2) of the near-surface layer of the South China Sea, on the ice and snow surface of the south China Sea, and in the inland Chengdu area of China, are predicted with the method of the Monin-Oukhov similarity theory and combined with the Bulk air dynamics method. The conventional meteorological parameters and C _ n ~ 2 of the near-ground level measured by the automatic weather station and the temperature pulse instrument are used as the comparative verification. The results show that the conventional meteorological parameters of the near-ground level of WRF prediction and the good agreement between the C _ n ~ (2) and the measured value are good, and the forecast value can be accurately reflected on the offshore surface. the conventional weather parameters on the ice and snow surface and the diurnal variation characteristics of the c. The stability and reliability of the forecast value are analyzed by statistical tools such as the mean deviation (Bias), the mean square error (RMSE), the correction deviation (Rxy), the coefficient of correlation (Rxy), and the column-linked table, and the relevant statistical results are satisfactory. The typical lower surface types, such as land, sea surface and ice and snow surface, are represented in Chengdu, the South China Sea and the Antarctic Mountain Tai Station. From the results of the comparison, it can be seen that the diurnal variation of C _ n ~ 2 has significant regional difference. In general, WRF simulated the best of the C _ n ~ 2 on the ice and snow surface and the measured results, the last of the sea and the worst on the land. The environment of the land is more complex and changeable, the measuring point is affected by the surroundings, and the horizontal resolution of the mode is limited, and these factors may be the cause of the difference between the forecast value on land and the measured value. It is shown that the C _ n ~ 2 contour line and the near-ground layer C _ n ~ (2) in WRF mode are basically in accordance with the measured data by the comparison of the estimation and the measurement of the C _ n ~ (2) in the three typical areas of the high-US-old, Maoming and Korla and the land, sea surface and ice-snow surface. However, the spatial resolution and precision of the conventional meteorological parameters in WRF mode and the method of optical turbulence parametrization of different subplanes also need to be further improved and improved.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國科學(xué)技術(shù)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：O357.5;O436
本文編號(hào)：2352072
[Abstract]:The optical turbulence effect is an important factor that restricts the application of the photoelectric engineering, and the quantitative description of the turbulence effect is related to the refractive index structure constant (C _ n ~ 2). In this paper, the real-time field measurement of C _ n ~ (2) can be carried out with a variety of measuring instruments for the specific photoelectric engineering application, so as to quantitatively analyze the turbulence effect. However, in many photoelectric engineering design and possible application scenarios, it is necessary to measure the C _ n ~ 2 of the application scene for a long time, which is difficult for measuring instruments. In recent ten years, using the mesoscale numerical weather model to acquire the atmospheric optical turbulence parameters has become a hot topic of international interest, and we have tried to use the numerical weather pattern (WRF) to forecast the C _ n ~ 2 profile line and its time-changing characteristics. On the basis of the study of the models of C _ n ~ 2 and the research of the forecasting model, this paper has carried out the study on the model of WRF for the prediction of the high-quality ancient astronomical observatory of Lijiang, the Ocean Observatory of Maoming Boga, the C _ n ~ 2 contour lines in the Korla region of Xinjiang, and the different subsides (the near-sea surface of the South China Sea and the ice and snow surface of the Mount Tai Station, Study on the characteristics of the time evolution of c _ n ~ 2 in the inland of chengdu). In this paper, the technical characteristics, difficulties and feasibility of C _ n ~ (2) are predicted mainly around WRF mode, and the following research work is carried out: 1. The basic situation of WRF mode is described in detail, including the mode frame, the coordinate equation, the physical parameter process, etc. The installation process of WRF mode on the PC, the use of the initial field data and the operation of the debugging are also introduced. The method for estimating the C _ n ~ 2 contour line by the regular meteorological parameters is mainly based on the Tatiarskii mode, while the Chinese and foreign dimensions of the Tatiareskii mode are the key parameters, but it is difficult to measure directly. Four out-of-scale parametric modes (Dewan mode, Coulman model, Sterigenborg mode, and HMNSP99 mode) are compared. The C _ n ~ 2 contour line estimated by the conventional meteorological parameters measured by the sounding balloon is compared with the measured C _ n ~ 2 contour line of the turbulent meteorological sounding instrument. It is found that the C _ n ~ 2 contour lines, which are estimated by the four out-scale modes, are both on the order of change or on the order of magnitude, and the difference between the four modes is very large. It is found that in several parameters, such as temperature gradient, wind speed gradient, Richardson number and so on, C2 and measured C _ n ~ (2) of the HMNSP99 external-scale model with temperature gradient and wind speed gradient is the closest to the variation trend and magnitude. Based on WRF model, the temperature, wind speed and C _ n ~ 2 contour line of the three typical areas, such as the high, the Maoming and the Korla, are predicted in combination with the Tatoskii mode and the HMNSP99 mode, and the corresponding contour lines measured by the turbulence meteorological sounding instrument are used as the comparison. The results show that the temperature and the profile line of WRF are very close to that of the three areas, and the correlation can reach 90% and more than 80%, respectively. The predicted C _ n ~ 2 profile basically satisfies the characteristics of the height variation of C _ n ~ (2), the correlation is about 75%, but the variation of the C _ n ~ 2 profile line is slightly different from the measured value. The climate types of the three typical regions are different, and the distribution characteristics of the C _ n ~ 2 profile also have obvious climatic types. In general, the C _ n ~ 2 contour line in the high-US-old region of WRF forecast is better than the forecast value in Maoming and Kuril area. The general meteorological parameters (such as temperature, humidity, wind speed, wind direction, and the like) and C _ n ~ (2) of the near-surface layer of the South China Sea, on the ice and snow surface of the south China Sea, and in the inland Chengdu area of China, are predicted with the method of the Monin-Oukhov similarity theory and combined with the Bulk air dynamics method. The conventional meteorological parameters and C _ n ~ 2 of the near-ground level measured by the automatic weather station and the temperature pulse instrument are used as the comparative verification. The results show that the conventional meteorological parameters of the near-ground level of WRF prediction and the good agreement between the C _ n ~ (2) and the measured value are good, and the forecast value can be accurately reflected on the offshore surface. the conventional weather parameters on the ice and snow surface and the diurnal variation characteristics of the c. The stability and reliability of the forecast value are analyzed by statistical tools such as the mean deviation (Bias), the mean square error (RMSE), the correction deviation (Rxy), the coefficient of correlation (Rxy), and the column-linked table, and the relevant statistical results are satisfactory. The typical lower surface types, such as land, sea surface and ice and snow surface, are represented in Chengdu, the South China Sea and the Antarctic Mountain Tai Station. From the results of the comparison, it can be seen that the diurnal variation of C _ n ~ 2 has significant regional difference. In general, WRF simulated the best of the C _ n ~ 2 on the ice and snow surface and the measured results, the last of the sea and the worst on the land. The environment of the land is more complex and changeable, the measuring point is affected by the surroundings, and the horizontal resolution of the mode is limited, and these factors may be the cause of the difference between the forecast value on land and the measured value. It is shown that the C _ n ~ 2 contour line and the near-ground layer C _ n ~ (2) in WRF mode are basically in accordance with the measured data by the comparison of the estimation and the measurement of the C _ n ~ (2) in the three typical areas of the high-US-old, Maoming and Korla and the land, sea surface and ice-snow surface. However, the spatial resolution and precision of the conventional meteorological parameters in WRF mode and the method of optical turbulence parametrization of different subplanes also need to be further improved and improved.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國科學(xué)技術(shù)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：O357.5;O436
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