秦嶺地區(qū)瀕危物種對氣候變化的響應及脆弱性評估
發(fā)布時間：2018-09-14 08:46
【摘要】：全球氣候變化對生物多樣性產生了很大的影響。大量觀測事實表明,氣候變暖對物種地理分布、種群動態(tài)、物候特征(產卵期、遷徙期、遷徙距離等)、進化等方面產生深刻影響,且這些影響在未來將會變得更加劇烈。如果氣候變暖的趨勢得不到有效的遏制,溫度升高2℃(升高2℃被聯合國氣候變化公約組織(UFCCC)定義為“危險”溫度),全球將有15%-35%物種滅絕,這無疑將會給生物多樣性的保護帶來嚴峻挑戰(zhàn)。盡管氣候變化對生物滅絕程度和速度的預測存在一定的爭議,但氣候變暖加速生物滅絕的現狀和趨勢已經被廣泛證實。目前,在全球氣候變化背景下,如何制定有效的生物多樣性保護對策,已成為政府、生態(tài)學家和民眾普遍關注的熱點問題。本研究通過紅外相機調查技術監(jiān)測研究區(qū)域瀕危物種活動節(jié)律和模型模擬氣候變化對瀕危物種的影響,擬解決以下幾個科學問題:(1)瀕危物種如何調整自身行為來適應其生存的周圍環(huán)境條件變化,從而形成某種時間分配以及行為節(jié)律模式;(2)評估氣候變化背景下秦嶺地區(qū)大熊貓脆弱性,為大熊貓適應氣候變化保護對策的制定提供科學依據;(3)氣候變化背景下秦嶺地區(qū)主要瀕危物種分布格局變化,評估當前已建立的自然保護區(qū)面對未來氣候變化的保護成效性。主要結論如下:(1)大熊貓春季拍攝率明顯高于其它季節(jié),3月份拍攝率最高;大熊貓每日活動高峰期出現在下午14:00-20:00,低谷出現在20:00-02:00,白天活動概率為55.43%,夜間為44.67%;春季大熊貓活高峰期的環(huán)境溫度(8.28±7.61℃)要顯著(Z=-2.48,P=0.013)高于活動低谷期(20:00-24:00;00:00-12:00)的環(huán)境溫度(3.97±6.91℃);大熊貓活動主要在1 400-2 000m的中等海拔區(qū)間。春季大熊貓50%活動范圍面積為66.79 km2,而冬季50%活動面積僅22.85 km2。(2)羚牛年活動具有2個明顯的高峰期,出現在4月和11月,活動低谷出現在1月;羚牛日活動具有明顯的晨昏活動習性,分別出現在上午06:00-10:00和下午16:00-18:00;紅外相機拍攝到羚牛活動時記錄到的平均環(huán)境溫度表明,羚牛生活在-2.08±5.00℃到17.43±4.76℃之間;羚牛具有季節(jié)性垂直遷移的習性,每年4-6月和10-12月具有兩次往上遷移現象,即春夏季遷移和秋冬季遷移,最低海拔1 055m,最高海拔2 927m,年平均海拔1 977.31±353.90 m;羚牛季節(jié)間活動范圍差異顯著,冬季活動范圍最大(50%K,151.92km2)、春季(50%K,116.41km2)和秋季(50%K,102.31km2)次之、夏季活動范圍面積最小(50%K,39.17km2)。(3)氣候變化背景下秦嶺地區(qū)大熊貓脆弱性結論:秦嶺地區(qū)大熊貓適宜生境面積為4810km2;預測到2050年,預測秦嶺地區(qū)大熊貓適宜生境面積為4 529km2;預測到2050s年,大熊貓適宜生境海拔將向更高海拔地區(qū)轉移,轉移約30m;在當前氣候條件下,已建自然保護區(qū)覆蓋61.73%適宜生境面積,尚有1 840.61km2的大熊貓適宜生境處于保護區(qū)之外;在2050s年氣候條件下,保護區(qū)覆蓋了59.23%適宜生境面積,尚有1 846.55km2的適宜生境未被保護;到2050s年,當前分布在城固、太白和洋縣的987 km2大熊貓適宜生境將會成為生境脆弱區(qū)域,適宜生境約喪失20.52%。同時,基于本研究脆弱性評估結果,就未來大熊貓應對氣候變化的保護工作提出以下幾點建議:新建和調整自然保護區(qū)、建立生境遷移廊道、增強物種適應氣候變化能力、加強大熊貓監(jiān)測。(4)氣候變化將導致秦嶺地區(qū)4個瀕危物種適宜分布面積均減少,川金絲猴適宜生境面積減少最多,減少了約51.22%;當前秦嶺地區(qū)適宜生境較高的區(qū)域(大于或小于3個物種)總面積為4 662km2,約占秦嶺地區(qū)總面積的7.89%,到2050s適宜生境較高的區(qū)域面積將大幅減少,總面積為2 453km2,約占研究區(qū)域總面積的4.15%;未來氣候變化將增加當前秦嶺地區(qū)瀕危物種分布區(qū)域外圍適宜生境的風險;已建立的自然保護區(qū)體系保護了4 037.42km2的適宜生境,約占瀕危物種適宜生境總面積48.58%,到2050s年,已建立的自然保護區(qū)體系保護了3 186.65km2的適宜生境,約占瀕危物種適宜生境總面積52.54%。同時,提出5個保護空缺區(qū)域,可成為秦嶺地區(qū)建設新自然保護區(qū)的備選區(qū)域,以便完善整個秦嶺保護體系。
[Abstract]:A large number of observations have shown that climate warming has a profound impact on species geographic distribution, population dynamics, phenological characteristics (spawning, migration, migration distance, etc.) and evolution, and these effects will become more intense in the future. By effectively curbing the temperature rise by 2 degrees Celsius, defined by the United Nations Convention on Climate Change (UFCCC) as a "dangerous" temperature, 15% to 35% of species will be extinct globally, which will undoubtedly pose a serious challenge to the conservation of biodiversity. The current situation and trend of accelerated extinction by warming have been widely confirmed. At present, how to formulate effective biodiversity conservation strategies under the background of global climate change has become a hot issue for governments, ecologists and the public. And the model simulates the impact of climate change on endangered species to solve the following scientific problems: (1) how the endangered species adjust their behavior to adapt to the changes of environmental conditions around their survival, thus forming a certain pattern of time allocation and behavior rhythm; (2) assess the vulnerability of giant pandas in the Qinling Mountains under the background of climate change, for giant pandas. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) The shooting rate of giant pandas in spring is significantly higher than that in other seasons, and it was taken in March. The daily activity peak of giant pandas appeared at 14:00-20:00 p.m., the low point appeared at 20:00-02:00 p.m., the activity probability in the daytime was 55.43%, and the activity probability in the night was 44.67%; the environmental temperature in the peak of giant pandas in spring (8.28 7.61) was significantly higher than that in the valley (20:00-24:00; 00:00-12:00) (3.97.91). The activity of giant pandas is mainly in the middle altitude range of 1 400-2 000 M. In spring, 50% of the activity area of giant pandas is 66.79 km 2, while in winter, 50% of the activity area is only 22.85 km 2. (2) The annual activity of antelope has two distinct peaks, occurring in April and November, and the activity trough occurs in January; the daily activity of antelope has obvious morning and evening activity habits, respectively. Now it is 06:00-10:00 a.m. and 16:00-18:00 p.m. The average environmental temperature recorded by infrared cameras during antelope activity shows that the antelope lives between - 2.08 [5.00] C and 17.43 [4.76]C. The antelope has the habit of seasonal vertical migration, and migrates upwards twice a year from April to June and October to December, i.e. in spring and summer and in autumn and winter. The lowest elevation was 1 055m, the highest elevation was 2 927m, and the annual average elevation was 1 977.31 (+ 353.90 m). The seasonal range of activity of takin was significantly different, with the largest range of activity in winter (50% K, 151.92 km 2), followed by spring (50% K, 116.41 km 2) and autumn (50% K, 102.31 km 2), and the smallest range of activity in summer (50% K, 39.17 km 2). (3) Under the background of climate change, the Qinling region was large. Conclusion: The suitable habitat area for giant pandas in Qinling is 4810 km 2, the suitable habitat area for giant pandas in Qinling is 4 529 km 2 by 2050, the suitable habitat elevation for giant pandas will be shifted to higher altitude by 2050, and the suitable habitat coverage for giant pandas will be 61.73% under current climate conditions. Habitat area, there are still 1840.61 km 2 suitable habitat for giant pandas outside the protected area; in 2050s climate conditions, the protected area covered 59.23% of the suitable habitat area, there are still 1 846.55 km 2 suitable habitat is not protected; by 2050s, the current distribution in Chenggu, Taibai and Yangxian 987 km 2 suitable habitat for giant pandas will become habitat fragile area. At the same time, based on the results of vulnerability assessment, the following suggestions are put forward for the future protection of giant pandas against climate change: to build and adjust nature reserves, to establish habitat migration corridors, to enhance the adaptability of species to climate change, and to strengthen the monitoring of giant pandas. (4) Climate change will lead to the Qinling Mountains. The suitable habitat area of the four endangered species in the Qinling Mountains was reduced by 51.22%, and the total area of the areas with higher habitat suitability (greater than or less than 3 species) was 4 662 km 2, accounting for 7.89% of the total area of the Qinling Mountains, and the area with higher habitat suitability would be greatly reduced by 2050 S. The total area is 2 453 km 2, accounting for 4.15% of the total area of the study area; future climate change will increase the risk of habitat suitability in the periphery of the current distribution area of endangered species in the Qinling Mountains; the established nature reserve system protects the habitat suitability of 4 037.42 km 2, accounting for 48.58% of the total habitat suitability of endangered species, and by 2050 s, the established natural environment will be protected. The reserve system protects the suitable habitats of 3186.65 km 2, accounting for 52.54% of the total suitable habitats of endangered species. Meanwhile, five protection vacancies are proposed, which can be used as alternative zones for the construction of new nature reserves in the Qinling Mountains, so as to improve the protection system of the whole Qinling Mountains.
【學位授予單位】：中國林業(yè)科學研究院
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：Q958.1
[Abstract]:A large number of observations have shown that climate warming has a profound impact on species geographic distribution, population dynamics, phenological characteristics (spawning, migration, migration distance, etc.) and evolution, and these effects will become more intense in the future. By effectively curbing the temperature rise by 2 degrees Celsius, defined by the United Nations Convention on Climate Change (UFCCC) as a "dangerous" temperature, 15% to 35% of species will be extinct globally, which will undoubtedly pose a serious challenge to the conservation of biodiversity. The current situation and trend of accelerated extinction by warming have been widely confirmed. At present, how to formulate effective biodiversity conservation strategies under the background of global climate change has become a hot issue for governments, ecologists and the public. And the model simulates the impact of climate change on endangered species to solve the following scientific problems: (1) how the endangered species adjust their behavior to adapt to the changes of environmental conditions around their survival, thus forming a certain pattern of time allocation and behavior rhythm; (2) assess the vulnerability of giant pandas in the Qinling Mountains under the background of climate change, for giant pandas. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) The shooting rate of giant pandas in spring is significantly higher than that in other seasons, and it was taken in March. The daily activity peak of giant pandas appeared at 14:00-20:00 p.m., the low point appeared at 20:00-02:00 p.m., the activity probability in the daytime was 55.43%, and the activity probability in the night was 44.67%; the environmental temperature in the peak of giant pandas in spring (8.28 7.61) was significantly higher than that in the valley (20:00-24:00; 00:00-12:00) (3.97.91). The activity of giant pandas is mainly in the middle altitude range of 1 400-2 000 M. In spring, 50% of the activity area of giant pandas is 66.79 km 2, while in winter, 50% of the activity area is only 22.85 km 2. (2) The annual activity of antelope has two distinct peaks, occurring in April and November, and the activity trough occurs in January; the daily activity of antelope has obvious morning and evening activity habits, respectively. Now it is 06:00-10:00 a.m. and 16:00-18:00 p.m. The average environmental temperature recorded by infrared cameras during antelope activity shows that the antelope lives between - 2.08 [5.00] C and 17.43 [4.76]C. The antelope has the habit of seasonal vertical migration, and migrates upwards twice a year from April to June and October to December, i.e. in spring and summer and in autumn and winter. The lowest elevation was 1 055m, the highest elevation was 2 927m, and the annual average elevation was 1 977.31 (+ 353.90 m). The seasonal range of activity of takin was significantly different, with the largest range of activity in winter (50% K, 151.92 km 2), followed by spring (50% K, 116.41 km 2) and autumn (50% K, 102.31 km 2), and the smallest range of activity in summer (50% K, 39.17 km 2). (3) Under the background of climate change, the Qinling region was large. Conclusion: The suitable habitat area for giant pandas in Qinling is 4810 km 2, the suitable habitat area for giant pandas in Qinling is 4 529 km 2 by 2050, the suitable habitat elevation for giant pandas will be shifted to higher altitude by 2050, and the suitable habitat coverage for giant pandas will be 61.73% under current climate conditions. Habitat area, there are still 1840.61 km 2 suitable habitat for giant pandas outside the protected area; in 2050s climate conditions, the protected area covered 59.23% of the suitable habitat area, there are still 1 846.55 km 2 suitable habitat is not protected; by 2050s, the current distribution in Chenggu, Taibai and Yangxian 987 km 2 suitable habitat for giant pandas will become habitat fragile area. At the same time, based on the results of vulnerability assessment, the following suggestions are put forward for the future protection of giant pandas against climate change: to build and adjust nature reserves, to establish habitat migration corridors, to enhance the adaptability of species to climate change, and to strengthen the monitoring of giant pandas. (4) Climate change will lead to the Qinling Mountains. The suitable habitat area of the four endangered species in the Qinling Mountains was reduced by 51.22%, and the total area of the areas with higher habitat suitability (greater than or less than 3 species) was 4 662 km 2, accounting for 7.89% of the total area of the Qinling Mountains, and the area with higher habitat suitability would be greatly reduced by 2050 S. The total area is 2 453 km 2, accounting for 4.15% of the total area of the study area; future climate change will increase the risk of habitat suitability in the periphery of the current distribution area of endangered species in the Qinling Mountains; the established nature reserve system protects the habitat suitability of 4 037.42 km 2, accounting for 48.58% of the total habitat suitability of endangered species, and by 2050 s, the established natural environment will be protected. The reserve system protects the suitable habitats of 3186.65 km 2, accounting for 52.54% of the total suitable habitats of endangered species. Meanwhile, five protection vacancies are proposed, which can be used as alternative zones for the construction of new nature reserves in the Qinling Mountains, so as to improve the protection system of the whole Qinling Mountains.
【學位授予單位】：中國林業(yè)科學研究院
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：Q958.1
【相似文獻】
相關期刊論文 前10條
1 黃穗英,謝衛(wèi)華;氣候變化綜合評估系統的新視角[J];廣東氣象;2000年04期
2 劉德輝,陶于祥;土壤、農業(yè)與全球氣候變化[J];火山地質與礦產;2000年04期
3 張可佳;氣候變化不可逆轉嗎[J];勞動安全與健康;2001年10期
4 高廣生;氣候變化的本質與應對策略[J];今日國土;2002年Z2期
5 殷永元;氣候變化適應對策的評價方法和工具[J];冰川凍土;2002年04期
6 高云;毛留喜;程磊;;關于氣候變化科學研究的若干問題[J];中國軟科學;2003年12期
7 雷 Wen,查爾斯 A.Lin;全球氣候變化及其影響[J];水科學進展;2003年05期
8 ;氣候變化的影響以負面為主[J];安全與健康;2003年05期
9 石緞花,David A King;氣候變化科學:適應,減緩,還是漠視?[J];生態(tài)學報;2004年07期
10 鄒晶;一次關于氣候變化的科普研討會[J];世界環(huán)境;2004年06期
相關會議論文 前10條
1 陳迎;;把握中國在氣候變化上核心利益[A];新觀點新學說學術沙龍文集6：未來幾年氣候變化研究向何處去[C];2007年
2 沈永平;;加強與媒體的緊密合作擴大氣候變化科學信息的普及與傳播[A];新觀點新學說學術沙龍文集6：未來幾年氣候變化研究向何處去[C];2007年
3 車振學;杜學勝;周康軍;;氣候變化對黃河防洪抗旱帶來的思考[A];加入WTO和中國科技與可持續(xù)發(fā)展——挑戰(zhàn)與機遇、責任和對策（下冊）[C];2002年
4 徐寅杰;林震;;我國應對氣候變化立法的體系建設[A];2010中國環(huán)境科學學會學術年會論文集(第二卷)[C];2010年
5 彭黎明;;廣州城市居民氣候變化風險認知的調查[A];第28屆中國氣象學會年會——S4應對氣候變化，發(fā)展低碳經濟[C];2011年
6 王海華;劉春蘭;陳操操;李錚;;加州應對氣候變化的主要經驗及其對中國的啟示[A];2011中國環(huán)境科學學會學術年會論文集（第三卷）[C];2011年
7 許慧慧;施燁聞;錢海雷;金奇昂;張莉君;張江華;郭常義;;氣候變化對人類健康的影響[A];2011年全國環(huán)境衛(wèi)生學術年會論文集[C];2011年
8 高慶先;;注重培養(yǎng)建設一支穩(wěn)定、專業(yè)、持續(xù)的外交談判隊伍[A];新觀點新學說學術沙龍文集6：未來幾年氣候變化研究向何處去[C];2007年
9 王長科;;氣候變化與人體健康方面的研究有待加強[A];新觀點新學說學術沙龍文集6：未來幾年氣候變化研究向何處去[C];2007年
10 趙艷霞;;加強部門間的合作和資料、成果共享[A];新觀點新學說學術沙龍文集6：未來幾年氣候變化研究向何處去[C];2007年
相關重要報紙文章 前10條
1 吳賢緯;氣候變化與金融業(yè)（下）[N];中國氣象報;2005年
2 趙艷紅;我國將設最高氣候應對指揮部[N];北京商報;2007年
3 張靜;適應和緩解氣候變化戰(zhàn)略與行動項目將啟動[N];中國財經報;2007年
4 戰(zhàn)雪雷;《中國應對氣候變化國家方案》今起實施[N];中國財經報;2007年
5 中和;我國頒布應對氣候變化國家方案[N];中國改革報;2007年
6 記者 趙慶國;國家為應對氣候變化提供科技支撐[N];中國改革報;2007年
7 黃勇;驅散氣候變化夢魘[N];中國環(huán)境報;2007年
8 黃勇;中國需積極應對氣候變化危機[N];中國環(huán)境報;2007年
9 柳艷菊;應對全球氣候變化中國邁出堅實步伐[N];中國環(huán)境報;2007年
10 本報記者 黃勇;聯大首次舉行氣候變化專題辯論[N];中國環(huán)境報;2007年
相關博士學位論文 前10條
1 李佳;秦嶺地區(qū)瀕危物種對氣候變化的響應及脆弱性評估[D];中國林業(yè)科學研究院;2017年
2 王t熺，
本文編號：2242178
本文鏈接：http://sikaile.net/shoufeilunwen/jckxbs/2242178.html
