發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-07-05 10:08

  本文選題：氣候變化 + BIOME-BGC　； 參考：《中國(guó)科學(xué)院研究生院(東北地理與農(nóng)業(yè)生態(tài)研究所)》2016年博士論文

【摘要】：濕地生態(tài)系統(tǒng)是地球上的主要碳庫(kù),其對(duì)全球氣候變化影響巨大;同時(shí),濕地生態(tài)系統(tǒng)又是對(duì)氣候變化異常敏感的生態(tài)系統(tǒng)。本文選擇我國(guó)氣候變化最為劇烈的東北三江平原沼澤濕地為研究對(duì)象,分析過去50年和未來40年該區(qū)域氣候變化情況,并模擬沼澤濕地植被凈初級(jí)生產(chǎn)力(NPP)對(duì)氣候變化的響應(yīng)情況,評(píng)估氣候變化對(duì)沼澤濕地NPP的主要影響,通過對(duì)過去50年的NPP變化,預(yù)估未來40年氣候變化對(duì)三江平原沼澤濕地系統(tǒng)的可能影響及風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。具體研究結(jié)論如下:1、1961~2010年三江平原地區(qū)氣候變化總體趨勢(shì)表現(xiàn)為氣溫持續(xù)升高,降水量略有增加,蒸發(fā)量微弱增加,呈現(xiàn)出暖化的氣候變化趨勢(shì)。水熱指標(biāo)中溫暖指數(shù)和寒冷指數(shù)均呈增加趨勢(shì),而濕度指數(shù)和干燥指數(shù)未見明顯變化,但波動(dòng)十分劇烈,連續(xù)干旱日數(shù)呈現(xiàn)下降趨勢(shì),而夏天日數(shù)增加。最高和最低年平均氣溫出現(xiàn)年份和東北區(qū)域的情況相同,但三江平原地區(qū)的增溫幅度高于東北平均值。未來40年(2011~2050)氣候?qū)⒊掷m(xù)暖化趨勢(shì)。RCP2.6,RCP4.5,RCP6.0和RCP8.5情景下氣溫均值分別為3.84,3.89,3.72和4.12℃,均高于過去50年的平均氣溫(3.21℃),增溫速率分別為0.35,0.47,0.32和0.63℃/10a,RCP6.0情景下增溫速率最慢,RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景氣溫增幅最大,氣溫波動(dòng)也最為劇烈。4種氣候情景下降水量、蒸發(fā)量均呈略微增加趨勢(shì),溫暖指數(shù)、寒冷指數(shù)持續(xù)上升,夏天日數(shù)更長(zhǎng),生長(zhǎng)季長(zhǎng)度也更長(zhǎng),濕度指數(shù)均值雖略高于基準(zhǔn)期,但卻呈現(xiàn)出下降趨勢(shì),連續(xù)干旱日數(shù)低于過去50年。三江平原地區(qū)氣候基本上延續(xù)了過去的氣候變化趨勢(shì),4種氣候情景下,以RCP8.5情景下氣候變化最為劇烈,而RCP2.6情景下氣候變化最為平緩。2、通過模型參數(shù)本地化和優(yōu)化調(diào)整,BIOME-BGC模型對(duì)小葉章濕地和苔草濕地NPP的模擬值與實(shí)測(cè)值決定系數(shù)(R2)分別達(dá)到0.87和0.72,說明BIOME-BGC模型適用于三江平原沼澤濕地NPP的模擬。1961~2010年三江平原沼澤濕地npp年平均值為326.8gcm-2a-1,波動(dòng)幅度在281.2~365.6gcm-2a-1之間,總體上呈微弱的增加趨勢(shì),說明過去50年氣候變化趨勢(shì)促進(jìn)了沼澤濕地npp的增加;在區(qū)域分布上,隨著時(shí)間的變化npp區(qū)域差異變大,npp偏高的區(qū)域呈現(xiàn)出增加趨勢(shì),而npp偏低的區(qū)域則表現(xiàn)為下降趨勢(shì),而這意味著氣候變化會(huì)對(duì)濕地npp較低的地區(qū)產(chǎn)生較大威脅;4種沼澤濕地植被類型npp差異明顯,其中以蘆葦濕地npp最高(395.0gcm-2a-1),其次為小葉章-蘆葦濕地(352.2gcm-2a-1)和小葉章苔草濕地(304.1gcm-2a-1),苔草濕地npp最低(255.9gcm-2a-1),但波動(dòng)卻最為劇烈,其npp波動(dòng)范圍在194.1~297.7gcm-2a-1之間,說明氣候變化對(duì)苔草濕地npp的影響最大。未來氣候情景下,2011~2050年三江平原沼澤濕地npp模擬均值為329.4gcm-2a-1,與基準(zhǔn)期(1981~2010)沼澤濕地npp均值(330.4gcm-2a-1)基本相同,但npp的年際波動(dòng)加劇。在rcp8.5情景下,沼澤濕地npp變化最為劇烈,波動(dòng)范圍在283.7~379.4gcm-2a-1之間,標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差達(dá)25.6;rcp2.6情景次之,npp波動(dòng)范圍在293.4~378.2gcm-2a-1之間,標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差為20.8;在rcp4.5和rcp6.0情景下,沼澤濕地npp較為穩(wěn)定,波動(dòng)幅度和基準(zhǔn)期較為接近。未來氣候情景下,三江平原沼澤濕地npp空間分布格局與過去50年基本一致,表現(xiàn)為東部、中部和西部地區(qū)npp偏低,而中部區(qū)域東西兩側(cè)的npp值相對(duì)較高。大部分地區(qū)npp呈增加趨勢(shì),rcp2.6和rcp6.0情景下,全區(qū)npp變化較小,主要表現(xiàn)為北部地區(qū)npp增加;而rcp4.5和rcp8.5情景下,則是全區(qū)大部分地區(qū)npp都有增加趨勢(shì)。四種類型沼澤濕地中,以苔草濕地波動(dòng)最為劇烈,其在rcp8.5情景下波動(dòng)范圍201.8~330.2gcm-2a-1,標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差高達(dá)32.8,超過所有其他情景及沼澤濕地類型;其次為蘆葦濕地,標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差29.7;而小葉章-苔草濕地和小葉章-蘆葦濕地的npp則相對(duì)較為穩(wěn)定。與過去50年相比,苔草濕地和蘆葦濕地npp呈增加趨勢(shì)。3、未來氣候情景下三江平原沼澤濕地npp均值較基準(zhǔn)期變化不大,但年際間波動(dòng)劇烈,部分年份風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等級(jí)較高。rcp2.6情景下沼澤濕地npp風(fēng)險(xiǎn)最低,rcp8.5情景下沼澤濕地npp風(fēng)險(xiǎn)最高,未來40年有9年面臨較高風(fēng)險(xiǎn),高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)年份主要出現(xiàn)在2040年以后;在區(qū)域分布上,高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)主要發(fā)生在三江平原中部偏北的外七星河兩側(cè)和興凱湖東部地區(qū)。RCP8.5情景下存在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的區(qū)域最大,其次為RCP4.5,而RCP2.6情景下僅興凱湖東部區(qū)域存在風(fēng)險(xiǎn);各氣候情景下,以小葉章-苔草濕地和小葉章-蘆葦濕地風(fēng)險(xiǎn)較高,蘆葦濕地和苔草濕地風(fēng)險(xiǎn)相對(duì)較低。4、多項(xiàng)分析均表明未來沼澤濕地NPP變化主要受到水分因素變化的影響,而溫度相關(guān)的氣候因素則對(duì)沼澤濕地變化影響微弱。逐步回歸分析表明影響沼澤濕地NPP變化的氣候因素以蒸發(fā)量和干燥度指數(shù)最為顯著,二者合計(jì)對(duì)NPP影響的貢獻(xiàn)率(R2)可達(dá)0.62,此外,降水量和濕度指數(shù)也對(duì)NPP有較大影響,而溫度相關(guān)的氣候因素并不是影響沼澤濕地NPP的主要因素。隨著國(guó)家濕地保護(hù)條例的頒布實(shí)施,以及三江平原濕地保護(hù)紅線的嚴(yán)格執(zhí)行,未來氣候?qū)?huì)是影響三江平原沼澤濕地系統(tǒng)變化的主導(dǎo)因素。
[Abstract]:The wetland ecosystem is the main carbon pool on the earth, which has great influence on the global climate change. At the same time, the wetland ecosystem is also an ecological system sensitive to climate change. This paper chooses the most intense northeast Sanjiang plain swamps in China as the research object, and analyzes the climate change in the past 50 years and the next 40 years. The response of the net primary productivity of marsh vegetation (NPP) to climate change was simulated and the main effects of climate change on the swamp wetland NPP were evaluated. The possible effects and risks of climate change on the marsh wetland system in Sanjiang plain in the next 40 years were estimated by the NPP changes of the past 50 years. The conclusions are as follows: 11961~2010 The general trend of climate change in Sanjiang plain area is that the temperature continues to rise, the precipitation is slightly increased, the evaporation is slightly increased, and the climate change trend is warm. The warm index and the cold index in the water and heat index are all increasing, but the humidity index and the drying index are not obviously changed, but the fluctuation is very intense and continuous drought. The number of days showed a downward trend, while the number of summer days increased. The highest and lowest annual average temperatures were the same as those in the northeast region, but the increase in temperature in the Sanjiang plain was higher than that in the northeast. The climate will continue to be.RCP2.6 in the next 40 years (2011~2050), and the mean temperature under the scenarios of RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 is 3.84,3.89,3., respectively. 72 and 4.12 C were higher than the average temperature of the past 50 years (3.21 degrees C). The temperature increasing rate was 0.35,0.47,0.32 and 0.63 /10a respectively. The temperature increasing rate was the slowest under the RCP6.0 situation. The temperature increase of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 was the largest, the temperature fluctuation was also the most severe.4 climate scenario, and the evaporation amount showed a slight increase trend, the warm index, the cold index. Continuous rise, the number of days longer in summer, growing Ji Changdu longer, the average humidity index is slightly higher than the baseline period, but presents a downward trend, the number of consecutive dry days is lower than the past 50 years. The climate of Sanjiang plain has basically continued the trend of the past climate change, under the 4 climate scenarios, under the RCP8.5 scenario, the climate change is the most intense, and RC Under the P2.6 scenario, the climate change is the most gentle.2. Through the localization and optimization of the model parameters, the BIOME-BGC model has reached 0.87 and 0.72, respectively, of the simulated values and the measured values (R2) of the NPP in small leaf and Carex wetland, indicating that the BIOME-BGC model is suitable for the simulated.1961~2010 year of the marsh wet of Sanjiang plain in Sanjiang plain. The average value of the NPP year is 326.8gcm-2a-1, and the fluctuation range is between 281.2~365.6gcm-2a-1, and the trend of the climate change in the past 50 years has promoted the increase of NPP in the marsh wetland. In the regional distribution, the regional difference in the NPP region becomes larger with the change of time, and the region of the higher NPP is increasing, while the region of the NPP is low. The region showed a downward trend, which meant that climate change would have a greater threat to the lower NPP areas of the wetland, and the vegetation types of the 4 marshes were significantly different, including the highest (395.0gcm-2a-1) in reed wetland NPP, followed by the leaflet reed wetland (352.2gcm-2a-1) and the lolia lolia wetland (304.1gcm-2a-1), and the most NPP in the moss wetland NPP. Low (255.9gcm-2a-1), but the volatility is the most intense, its NPP fluctuation range between 194.1~297.7gcm-2a-1, indicating that climate change has the greatest impact on the NPP of the moss wetland. Under the future climate scenario, the mean of NPP simulation of the Sanjiang plain marsh wetland is 329.4gcm-2a-1, and the NPP mean (330.4gcm-2a-1) of the base period (1981~2010) marsh wetland is basic. The same, but the interannual fluctuation of NPP intensifies. In the rcp8.5 scenario, the swamp wetland NPP changes most violently, the fluctuation range is between 283.7~379.4gcm-2a-1, the standard difference is 25.6; the rcp2.6 scenario is second, the NPP fluctuation range is between 293.4~378.2gcm-2a-1, the standard deviation is 20.8; in the rcp4.5 and rcp6.0 scenarios, the swamp wetland NPP is more stable, undulation amplitude and The datum period is relatively close. Under the future climate scenario, the spatial distribution pattern of NPP in the Sanjiang plain marsh is basically consistent with the past 50 years, showing the low NPP in the East, the middle and western regions, while the NPP value of the eastern and western regions is relatively high. Most of the region NPP shows an increasing trend, and the NPP changes in the whole region under the rcp2.6 and rcp6.0 scenarios are smaller. The NPP increased in the northern region, while in the rcp4.5 and rcp8.5 scenarios, the NPP in most areas of the whole region increased. In the four types of swamps, the fluctuation of the moss wetland was the most intense, and its fluctuation range under the rcp8.5 scenario was 201.8~330.2gcm-2a-1, the standard deviation was up to 32.8, more than all the other scenarios and marshland types; secondly, The standard deviation of the reed wetland is 29.7, while the NPP of the small leaf seal and the small leaf and reed wetland is relatively stable. Compared with the past 50 years, the NPP of the moss and reed wetland is increasing.3, and the NPP mean of the marsh wetland in Sanjiang plain is less than the reference period under the future climate situation, but the interannual fluctuation and part of the year risk are more severe. Under the situation of higher.Rcp2.6, the NPP risk of marsh wetland is the lowest, and the NPP risk of marsh wetland is the highest under rcp8.5 scenario. The risk of high risk is higher in the next 40 years. The high risk year is mainly after 2040, and the high risk occurs mainly in the outer Qixinghe River and the eastern region of Xingkai Lake in the north of Sanjiang plain. The risk area is the largest, followed by RCP4.5, and the risk is only in the eastern region of the Xingkai Lake under the RCP2.6 scenario. Under the climate scenario, the risk of the small leaf chapter moss wetland and the lobule reed wetland is higher, the risk of reed wetland and the Carex wetland is relatively low.4. Many analysis all show that the changes of NPP in the future marsh are mainly water. The influence of the variation of the factors on the change of the climate is weak. The stepwise regression analysis shows that the climatic factors that affect the NPP change of the marsh wetland are the most significant with the evaporation and the dryness index, and the contribution rate of the two to the NPP (R2) can be up to 0.62. In addition, the precipitation and humidity index also have a better effect on the NPP. The temperature related climatic factors are not the main factors affecting the marsh wetland NPP. With the promulgation and implementation of the national wetland protection regulations and the strict implementation of the Sanjiang plain wetland protection red line, the future climate will be the leading factor affecting the change of the marsh wetland system in Sanjiang plain.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國(guó)科學(xué)院研究生院(東北地理與農(nóng)業(yè)生態(tài)研究所)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號(hào)】：P467;X171.1

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