本文選題：枯水徑流 + 分季節(jié)率定��； 參考：《福建師范大學(xué)》2016年博士論文

【摘要】：分布式水文模型對(duì)流域水文循環(huán)的物理、化學(xué)和生物過程都有豐富的刻畫,且考慮了氣象、下墊面因子的空間異質(zhì)性,是認(rèn)識(shí)、模擬、分析及預(yù)測(cè)變化環(huán)境下水文過程時(shí)空變化規(guī)律的有效工具。Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT)模型是基于流域尺度的一個(gè)長時(shí)段的分布式流域水文模型,具有很強(qiáng)的物理基礎(chǔ),能夠有效模擬和預(yù)測(cè)長期連續(xù)時(shí)間段內(nèi)環(huán)境變化與管理措施對(duì)大面積復(fù)雜流域的水、沉積物和營養(yǎng)物輸出的影響,在全世界各地得到了廣泛應(yīng)用。但是,SWAT模型在機(jī)理的描述、功能的提高與應(yīng)用的拓展等方面還存在一些不足之處。針對(duì)這些不足,進(jìn)一步完善SWAT模型,對(duì)揭示流域水文規(guī)律,提高模型模擬精度,拓展模型應(yīng)用范圍,提高模型應(yīng)用水平,都具有重要的理論和現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。本文從四個(gè)方面開展SWAT模型的改進(jìn)及優(yōu)化工作,一是針對(duì)SWAT徑流模型對(duì)枯水期徑流模擬效果較差的問題,以晉江流域?yàn)槔?提出將徑流分為豐水序列和枯水序列分別進(jìn)行率定和模擬,然后通過合并模擬“最優(yōu)”的豐水序列和枯水序列組成完整徑流系列的方法,并開發(fā)相應(yīng)的SWAT-SC模型,實(shí)現(xiàn)豐枯季分開自動(dòng)率定與模擬,提高枯水徑流的模擬效率。二是針對(duì)加拿大地盾景觀的森林流域特征,通過改進(jìn)SWAT-CS模型,將氮濕沉降作為模型的驅(qū)動(dòng)數(shù)據(jù)之一,以體現(xiàn)其動(dòng)態(tài)變化對(duì)流域氮循環(huán)的影響,并修正氮濕沉降隨大孔隙徑流在土壤垂向分配模式,開發(fā)了SWAT-CSenm模型,以提高SWAT模型在該流域硝態(tài)氮通量的模擬和預(yù)測(cè)能力。三是利用云計(jì)算技術(shù)和GLUE方法開發(fā)了一個(gè)并行率定和不確定分析的工具—Cloud-CUT,以實(shí)現(xiàn)高速的SWAT模型率定和不確定分析。四是通過將分布式水文模型、WebGIS、云計(jì)算技術(shù)及其他開源軟件無縫的集成,實(shí)現(xiàn)友好和準(zhǔn)實(shí)時(shí)的流域管理決策系統(tǒng),為流域的科學(xué)管理提供實(shí)時(shí)、簡(jiǎn)單和便捷的決策支持。研究結(jié)果表明：(1)依據(jù)豐水期和枯水期分開率定的方案構(gòu)建的自動(dòng)率定和模擬的SWAT-SC模型,可以有效地提高晉江流域枯水期、豐水期及全序列日徑流模擬效果,對(duì)枯水期改善尤為顯著。(2)針對(duì)加拿大地盾景觀地區(qū)的森林流域的特點(diǎn),在SWAT-CS的基礎(chǔ)上開發(fā)的SWAT-CSenm模型,可以更加精確地刻畫流域氮循環(huán)過程,有效提高模型的硝態(tài)氮模擬和預(yù)測(cè)能力。(3)利用云計(jì)算技術(shù)和GLUE方法實(shí)現(xiàn)SWAT模型并行率定和不確定分析的工具——Cloud-CUT,可以實(shí)現(xiàn)高速的SWAT模型率定和不確定分析目標(biāo)。(4)通過將分布式水文模型、WebGIS、云計(jì)算技術(shù)及其他開源軟件無縫集成構(gòu)建的流域管理決策系統(tǒng),既能滿足系統(tǒng)功能要求,又能夠滿足界面直觀、操作簡(jiǎn)單、決策支持實(shí)時(shí)等非功能要求,有利于促進(jìn)信息共享。綜上所述,通過SWAT模型的這些改進(jìn)與拓展,提高了SWAT模型的模擬精度,實(shí)現(xiàn)了SWAT模型的高速率定和不確定的快速分析,促進(jìn)了流域管理科學(xué)化水平的提升。
[Abstract]:The distributed hydrological model has a rich description of the physical, chemical and biological processes of the hydrological cycle of the watershed, and takes into account the spatial heterogeneity of meteorological and underlying surface factors. Soil and Water Assessment tool (SWAT) is a long-term distributed watershed hydrological model based on watershed scale, which has a strong physical foundation. It can effectively simulate and predict the effects of environmental changes and management measures on the water, sediment and nutrient output of large and complex watersheds over a long continuous period of time, and has been widely used all over the world. However, the SWAT model has some shortcomings in the description of mechanism, the improvement of function and the expansion of application. In view of these shortcomings, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to further improve the SWAT model for revealing the hydrological law of the watershed, improving the accuracy of the model simulation, expanding the scope of application of the model and improving the application level of the model. In this paper, the improvement and optimization of SWAT model are carried out from four aspects. Firstly, aiming at the problem of poor simulation effect of SWAT runoff model in dry season, the paper takes Jinjiang River Basin as an example. The method of dividing runoff into high water series and low water sequence is put forward, and the whole runoff series is composed by combining "optimal" abundant water sequence and low water sequence, and the corresponding SWAT-SC model is developed. In order to improve the efficiency of dry water runoff simulation, automatic rate determination and simulation are realized. Secondly, according to the forest watershed characteristics of Canadian shield landscape, through the improvement of SWAT-CS model, the wet deposition of nitrogen is taken as one of the driving data of the model, so as to reflect the influence of its dynamic change on the nitrogen cycle of the watershed. The SWAT-CSenm model was developed to improve the simulation and prediction ability of SWAT model for nitrate fluxes in the watershed. Thirdly, a parallel rate determination and uncertainty analysis tool-Cloud-CUTS is developed by using cloud computing technology and GLUE method to achieve high speed SWAT model rate determination and uncertainty analysis. Fourthly, the distributed hydrological model WebGIS-cloud computing technology and other open source software are integrated seamlessly to realize a friendly and quasi-real-time watershed management decision-making system, which provides real-time, simple and convenient decision support for watershed scientific management. The results show that: (1) the SWAT-SC model of automatic rate determination and simulation based on the scheme of separating high and low water periods can effectively improve the simulation effect of dry, high water and whole sequence daily runoff in Jinjiang River Basin. (2) according to the characteristics of forest watershed in Canadian shield landscape area, SWAT-CSenm model developed on the basis of SWAT-CS can describe the process of nitrogen cycle more accurately. (3) using cloud computing technology and GLUE method to realize parallel rate determination and uncertainty analysis of SWAT model-Cloud-Cutt, can achieve high speed SWAT model rate determination and uncertain analysis target. (3) using cloud computing technology and GLUE method to realize parallel rate determination and uncertain analysis tool of SWAT model, we can achieve high speed SWAT model rate determination and uncertain analysis target. (4) Watershed management decision system, which is constructed by integrating distributed hydrological model WebGIS, cloud computing technology and other open source software seamlessly. It can not only meet the functional requirements of the system, but also meet the non-functional requirements, such as intuitive interface, simple operation, real-time decision support and so on, which is conducive to promoting information sharing. To sum up, through these improvements and extensions of SWAT model, the simulation accuracy of SWAT model is improved, and the high rate determination and rapid analysis of uncertainty of SWAT model are realized, and the scientific level of watershed management is promoted.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：福建師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號(hào)】：P333

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本文編號(hào)：2088051