【摘要】：安全生產(chǎn)領(lǐng)域的重特大事故主要集中于煤礦、石油化工、交通運輸?shù)雀呶Ｉa(chǎn)系統(tǒng)中。對這一類系統(tǒng)采取基于風險的管理與防控是當前實踐與研究的重要方向。動態(tài)風險是一個廣義的概念,是各種類型風險在時間維度上的拓展。風險一旦進入動態(tài)的時空中,其影響機理與演化特征的復雜性會極大增加,這對高危生產(chǎn)系統(tǒng)的安全運行造成了嚴峻的挑戰(zhàn)。如何在小時間尺度的視角下,對系統(tǒng)動態(tài)風險演化中的復雜非線性特征進行深入分析和開展科學的定量評估,從而揭示系統(tǒng)風險的動態(tài)本質(zhì)規(guī)律成為安全風險研究中的兩個關(guān)鍵問題。因此,本文設(shè)計并構(gòu)建了一套基于復雜網(wǎng)絡(luò)的分析與定量方法,從拓撲模型的視角對系統(tǒng)動態(tài)風險的全過程演化特征進行描述與規(guī)律分析,并結(jié)合這些動態(tài)特性完成對系統(tǒng)動態(tài)風險的定量評估。本文的核心研究內(nèi)容與創(chuàng)新貢獻主要體現(xiàn)在以下方面:(1)為探索高危生產(chǎn)系統(tǒng)安全風險在動態(tài)演化過程中呈現(xiàn)的復雜性與多樣性,本文基于事故致因理論,界定了具有信息可拓性與擇優(yōu)性的動態(tài)風險模態(tài)的概念及其F-I-C“風險因素→影響機理→可能后果”的信息元素架構(gòu)。動態(tài)風險模態(tài)是一種適于不同規(guī)模高危生產(chǎn)系統(tǒng)的小時間尺度動態(tài)風險的描述方法,可以將每一時刻的風險關(guān)鍵信息進行有效組合。(2)基于復雜網(wǎng)絡(luò)理論設(shè)計了高危生產(chǎn)系統(tǒng)的小時間尺度動態(tài)風險演化特征的拓撲分析方法,包括動態(tài)風險模態(tài)網(wǎng)絡(luò)拓撲建模的映射方法;通過對關(guān)鍵風險模態(tài)、演化方式、演化媒介等拓撲特征分析,研究了系統(tǒng)動態(tài)風險的小時間尺度演化特征,使得對重特大后果風險的規(guī)律認識更加深入。(3)以動態(tài)風險模態(tài)網(wǎng)絡(luò)拓撲模型為基礎(chǔ),并結(jié)合動態(tài)風險演化特征,構(gòu)建了適于系統(tǒng)動態(tài)風險評估的連續(xù)性定量評價模型和相應的風險可接受標準確定方法,給出了系統(tǒng)動態(tài)風險預警模型。(4)以化工裝置動態(tài)現(xiàn)實風險和煤礦行業(yè)動態(tài)事故風險作為微觀與宏觀層面的實證對象,檢驗了動態(tài)風險拓撲分析與定量模型方法的適用性、科學性和結(jié)果的可靠性,并參照分析結(jié)果給出了針對性的風險防控對策措施。
[Abstract]:Major accidents in the field of safety production are mainly concentrated in high-risk production systems such as coal mine, petrochemical industry, transportation and so on. It is an important direction of practice and research to take risk based management and prevention and control for this kind of system. Dynamic risk is a generalized concept, which is the extension of various types of risk in time dimension. Once the risk enters into the dynamic time and space, the complexity of its influence mechanism and evolution characteristics will increase greatly, which poses a severe challenge to the safe operation of the high risk production system. In the view of small time scale, the complex nonlinear characteristics in the evolution of system dynamic risk are deeply analyzed and the scientific quantitative evaluation is carried out. Thus revealing the dynamic nature of system risk becomes two key issues in the research of security risk. Therefore, this paper designs and constructs a set of analysis and quantitative methods based on complex network, describes and analyzes the evolution characteristics of the whole process of system dynamic risk from the perspective of topological model. Combined with these dynamic characteristics, the quantitative assessment of system dynamic risk is completed. The core research contents and innovative contributions of this paper are as follows: (1) in order to explore the complexity and diversity of high risk production system safety risks in the dynamic evolution process, this paper is based on accident cause theory. This paper defines the concept of dynamic risk mode with information extensibility and selectivity and the information element structure of F-I-C "risk factors influence mechanism and possible consequence". Dynamic risk mode is a small time scale dynamic risk description method suitable for high risk production systems of different scales. The key information of risk at every moment can be effectively combined. (2) based on the complex network theory, a topology analysis method of dynamic risk evolution characteristics in small time scale for high risk production systems is designed. The mapping method of dynamic risk modal network topology modeling is included, and the small time scale evolution characteristics of system dynamic risk are studied by analyzing the key risk modes, evolution media, and so on. It makes the understanding of the law of serious and serious consequence risk more in-depth. (3) based on the topological model of dynamic risk modal network, and combining with the characteristics of dynamic risk evolution, A continuous quantitative evaluation model suitable for system dynamic risk assessment and a corresponding method for determining acceptable risk criteria are constructed. The dynamic risk early warning model of the system is given. (4) taking the dynamic real risk of chemical plant and the dynamic accident risk of coal mine industry as the empirical objects at the micro and macro levels, the applicability of the dynamic risk topological analysis and quantitative model method is tested. Scientific nature and reliability of the results, and according to the results of the analysis of the corresponding risk prevention and control countermeasures.
【學位授予單位】：中國地質(zhì)大學(北京)
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：X913

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