發(fā)布時間：2018-05-18 01:21

  本文選題：明代 + 疫災(zāi)��； 參考：《華中師范大學(xué)》2015年博士論文

【摘要】：疫災(zāi)是與人類相伴始終的頂級自然災(zāi)害之一。深入研究歷史時期疫災(zāi)流行及其與自然環(huán)境的關(guān)系,可以為當前傳染病防控提供歷史參考,是當今時代的需要。本文以明代疫災(zāi)史料、氣候變遷數(shù)據(jù)和自然災(zāi)害史料為基礎(chǔ),運用空間分析及數(shù)理統(tǒng)計方法,研究明代疫災(zāi)的時空分布特征及其環(huán)境機理。明代疫災(zāi),在王朝分布上,崇禎朝的災(zāi)情最為嚴重,其次為萬歷朝和嘉靖朝,災(zāi)情最輕的為建文和洪熙朝；在季節(jié)分布上,春季和夏季是疫災(zāi)高發(fā)季節(jié),秋季是疫災(zāi)多發(fā)季節(jié),冬季疫災(zāi)最少；在趨勢周期上,整體呈上升趨勢,每隔十年疫災(zāi)縣數(shù)約增加9.5個,存在100年和50年兩種尺度的波動周期,在100年尺度周期下,經(jīng)歷了約5個“輕-重”轉(zhuǎn)換周期,在50年尺度周期下,經(jīng)歷了約8個“輕-重”轉(zhuǎn)換周期；在省域分布上,明代疫災(zāi)呈現(xiàn)自東北向西南遞減的總體趨勢,疫災(zāi)較嚴重省份主要位于東北部地區(qū),包括南直隸、北直隸、浙江等省,位于西南部的廣東、廣西、云南、貴州、四川等省份疫災(zāi)普遍較輕；在縣域分布上,共有1009個縣有疫災(zāi)發(fā)生,其中疫災(zāi)頻度最高的為南直隸吳縣,達到8.3%,其次為北直隸大興和宛平縣,均為7.94%,有542個縣無疫災(zāi)發(fā)生,疫災(zāi)頻度為0；在冷熱點分布上,疫災(zāi)熱點主要分布在東北部三個區(qū)域,冷點主要分布在西南部三個區(qū)域；明代共有10個特大疫災(zāi)年份,可以歸納為5個特大疫災(zāi)過程。明代全國氣候冷暖變遷趨勢與疫災(zāi)變化趨勢相反,波動周期比較接近,呈顯著負相關(guān)關(guān)系,氣候溫暖階段疫災(zāi)縣數(shù)顯著減少,寒冷階段則顯著增加。二者間的因果關(guān)系符合回歸方程y=-1.456x-0.577,全國溫度距平標準化值每減小1個單位,疫災(zāi)縣數(shù)標準化值增加1.456個單位,氣候冷暖變遷可以解釋23%的疫災(zāi)縣數(shù)變化。在區(qū)域尺度上,華北地區(qū)氣溫與本區(qū)疫災(zāi)變化趨勢相反,二者間呈顯著負相關(guān)關(guān)系,并具有統(tǒng)計學(xué)上的顯著性,其因果關(guān)系符合回歸方程y=-0.631x,溫度距平值標準化值每減小1個單位,疫災(zāi)縣數(shù)標準化值增加0.631個單位,氣候冷暖變遷可以解釋39.6%的疫災(zāi)變化；華東地區(qū)氣溫與本區(qū)疫災(zāi)變化趨勢相反,呈低度負相關(guān)關(guān)系,并具有統(tǒng)計學(xué)上的顯著性,二者間因果關(guān)系符合回歸方程y=-0.429 x-0.001,溫度距平值標準化值每減小1個單位,疫災(zāi)縣數(shù)標準化值增加0.429個單位,氣候冷暖變遷可以解釋15.4%的疫災(zāi)變化；華中地區(qū)、華南地區(qū)、和西南地區(qū)氣溫與各自區(qū)域疫災(zāi)變化趨勢均相反,均呈微弱負相關(guān)關(guān)系,都不具有統(tǒng)計學(xué)上的顯著性。明代東部地區(qū)干濕變遷趨勢與疫災(zāi)變化趨勢相反,波動周期較為接近,二者間呈低度負相關(guān)關(guān)系,但不具有統(tǒng)計學(xué)上的顯著性,氣候的干濕變化對疫災(zāi)輕重的影響不顯著。在東部各區(qū)域上,華北地區(qū)和江淮地區(qū)干濕變遷與疫災(zāi)變化均為微弱負相關(guān)關(guān)系,都不具有統(tǒng)計學(xué)上的顯著性,明代江南地區(qū)干濕變遷與疫災(zāi)變化為低度負相關(guān)關(guān)系,具有統(tǒng)計學(xué)上的顯著性。明代疫災(zāi)與水災(zāi)在時間分布上具有顯著正相關(guān)關(guān)系,相關(guān)系數(shù)為0.739。具體來說,二者增長趨勢具有統(tǒng)計學(xué)上顯著的完全正相關(guān)關(guān)系,相關(guān)系數(shù)為1,波動周期性在總體上不存在顯著的相關(guān)性。在空間分布上也顯著正相關(guān),相關(guān)系數(shù)為0.613,疫災(zāi)與水災(zāi)災(zāi)情均呈現(xiàn)從沿海向內(nèi)陸遞減的趨勢,疫災(zāi)中心基本與水災(zāi)中心重合。二者的因果關(guān)系符合回歸方程y=0.421x-20.961,十年水災(zāi)縣數(shù)每增加1個,十年疫災(zāi)縣數(shù)平均增加0.421個,十年水災(zāi)縣數(shù)可以解釋33.1%的十年疫災(zāi)縣數(shù)的變化。明代疫災(zāi)與旱災(zāi)在時間分布上具有高度正相關(guān)關(guān)系,相關(guān)系數(shù)為0.861,疫災(zāi)較重時旱災(zāi)也較為嚴重,反之亦然。具體來說,在增長趨勢上具有一致性,均呈上升趨勢,相關(guān)系數(shù)為0.998,具有統(tǒng)計學(xué)上顯著的高度正相關(guān)關(guān)系,在周期分布上也具有高度的正相關(guān)性,相關(guān)系數(shù)為0.844。在空間分布上也顯著正相關(guān),相關(guān)系數(shù)為0.657,即疫災(zāi)較重的區(qū)域旱災(zāi)也較為嚴重,反之亦然,疫災(zāi)中心與旱災(zāi)中心基本重合。其因果關(guān)系符合回歸方程y=0.546x-18.230,十年旱災(zāi)縣數(shù)每增加1個,十年疫災(zāi)縣數(shù)平均增加0.546個,十年旱災(zāi)縣數(shù)可以解釋74.1%的十年疫災(zāi)縣數(shù)的變化。明代疫災(zāi)與蝗災(zāi)在時間分布上具有顯著正相關(guān)關(guān)系,相關(guān)系數(shù)為0.681,疫災(zāi)較重時蝗災(zāi)也較為嚴重,反之亦然。具體來說,在增長趨勢上具有一致性,相關(guān)系數(shù)為1,具有統(tǒng)計學(xué)上顯著的完全相關(guān)關(guān)系,在周期分布上也具有顯著的正相關(guān)性,相關(guān)系數(shù)為0.541。在空間分布上也顯著正相關(guān),相關(guān)系數(shù)為0.555,即疫災(zāi)較重的區(qū)域蝗災(zāi)也相對較為嚴重,反之亦然,東北部地區(qū)蝗災(zāi)較嚴重的地區(qū)疫災(zāi)也較為嚴重,西部及南部地區(qū)疫災(zāi)和蝗災(zāi)都較輕。二者間的因果關(guān)系符合回歸方程y=0.705x+10.724,十年蝗災(zāi)縣數(shù)每增加1個,十年疫災(zāi)縣數(shù)平均增加0.705個,十年蝗災(zāi)縣數(shù)可以解釋46.4%的十年疫災(zāi)縣數(shù)的變化。明代疫災(zāi)與震災(zāi)在時間分布上具有顯著正相關(guān)關(guān)系,相關(guān)系數(shù)為0.643,震災(zāi)較重時疫災(zāi)也較為嚴重,反之亦然。具體來說,在增長趨勢上具有統(tǒng)計學(xué)上顯著的完全正相關(guān)關(guān)系,相關(guān)系數(shù)為1,在周期分布上不具有顯著的相關(guān)性。在空間分布上具有統(tǒng)計學(xué)上的顯著性的低度正相關(guān)關(guān)系,相關(guān)系數(shù)為0.390,疫災(zāi)與震災(zāi)同時都較嚴重的地區(qū)包括北直隸北部京師地區(qū)、山西省中部太原府地區(qū)、南直隸東部應(yīng)天府地區(qū)及陜西省西南部西安府地區(qū)等。二者的因果關(guān)系符合回歸方程y=0.383x+6.354,十年震災(zāi)縣數(shù)每增加1個,十年疫災(zāi)縣數(shù)平均增加0.383個,十年震災(zāi)縣數(shù)可以解釋29%的十年疫災(zāi)縣數(shù)的變化。疫災(zāi)的環(huán)境機理可以理解為影響疫災(zāi)的環(huán)境要素、影響程度及其作用機理。氣候冷暖變遷、水災(zāi)、旱災(zāi)、蝗災(zāi)、震災(zāi)等5種要素是對明代疫災(zāi)變化具有影響的主要自然環(huán)境要素。5種環(huán)境要素對疫災(zāi)變化的影響程度從高到低依次為“旱災(zāi)(74.1%)蝗災(zāi)(46.4%)水災(zāi)(33.1%)震災(zāi)(29%)氣候冷暖變遷(23%)”。環(huán)境要素影響疫災(zāi)的作用機理,從本質(zhì)上是通過對傳染源、傳播途徑和易感人群這三個環(huán)節(jié)施加影響而體現(xiàn)的,如果多種災(zāi)害同時疊加發(fā)生,就會造成嚴重疫災(zāi)。
[Abstract]:The epidemic is one of the top natural disasters associated with human being . It is necessary to provide historical reference for epidemic prevention and control of epidemic diseases . It can provide historical reference for prevention and control of infectious diseases . It is based on historical materials , climatic change data and natural disasters historical materials , and studies the characteristics of space - time distribution and its environmental mechanism of epidemic prevention in Ming Dynasty .
In the seasonal distribution , spring and summer are the high season of the plague , autumn is the season of the epidemic , and the winter epidemic is the least ;
In the trend cycle , the overall increase trend , the number of epidemic counties increased 9.5 in every decade , there were fluctuation periods of 100 years and 50 years , and in the 100 - year scale period , about 5 " light - weight " conversion cycles were experienced , and approximately 8 " light - weight " conversion cycles were experienced in the 50 - year scale period ;
At the provincial level , the epidemic of the Ming Dynasty presented the general trend of decreasing from the northeast to the southwest , and the more severe provinces were located in the north - east region , including the provinces of Zhili , North Zhili , Zhejiang and so on . The epidemic in Guangdong , Guangxi , Yunnan , Guizhou , Sichuan and other provinces in southwest China were generally lighter ;
At the county level , there are 1009 counties with epidemic diseases , in which the frequency of the epidemic is the highest in Wuxian County , Zhili County , up to 8.3 % , followed by 7.94 % in North Zhili and Datong County , and there are 542 counties with no plague , and the frequency of plague is 0 ;
In the cold spot distribution , the hot spots are mainly distributed in three regions of the north - east , and the cold spots are mainly distributed in the three regions of the southwest ;
In the Ming Dynasty , there were 10 special epidemic years , which could be summarized into five major epidemic processes . In the Ming Dynasty , there was a significant negative correlation between climate warming and epidemic trend .
There was a negative correlation between the temperature of East China and the epidemic trend of the local epidemic , and had statistical significance . The causal relationship between them was consistent with the regression equation y = - 0.429 x - 0.001 , the normalized value of the temperature was decreased by 1 unit , the standardized value of epidemic disaster counties increased by 0.429 units , and the climate warming change could explain the epidemic change of 15.4 % ;
In the eastern part of the Ming Dynasty , there was a significant positive correlation between the dry and wet changes in the eastern part of the Ming Dynasty . The correlation coefficient was 0 . The results show that there are significant positive correlations in the spatial distribution , the correlation coefficient is 0 . 555 , that is , there is a significant positive correlation between plague and plague in the north - east region .
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華中師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：K248
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本文編號：1903755