【摘要】： 對(duì)單位層面的關(guān)注是國(guó)際政治學(xué)與比較政治學(xué)的相通之處——單位既是構(gòu)成國(guó)際體系的基礎(chǔ),也是進(jìn)行比較的基礎(chǔ)。目前大多數(shù)國(guó)家仍處在現(xiàn)代化過程中,模式的多樣化與同質(zhì)化之爭(zhēng)由來(lái)已久,但共識(shí)的增加也是不爭(zhēng)的事實(shí)。上世紀(jì)六十年代政治發(fā)展研究興起,至冷戰(zhàn)后期第三世界國(guó)家的政治發(fā)展又出現(xiàn)了一些重大變化——例如新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體的崛起、威權(quán)政體的民主轉(zhuǎn)型以及全球化的日益突顯,國(guó)際體系的內(nèi)在屬性也在發(fā)生改變,以至于有人質(zhì)疑傳統(tǒng)意義上的第三世界是否還存在。目前,第三波民主化仍在改寫著發(fā)展中國(guó)家的政治圖譜,其中東南亞地區(qū)具有典型意義——這里的多樣性最為明顯,也是最有說(shuō)服力的民主化試驗(yàn)場(chǎng)。在內(nèi)外壓力下,后發(fā)國(guó)家如何在推進(jìn)政治民主的同時(shí)保持政治穩(wěn)定,在理論與實(shí)踐中都尚未完全解決。本文試圖把政黨制度作為變量,對(duì)轉(zhuǎn)型社會(huì)中的民主化與政治穩(wěn)定之間的復(fù)雜關(guān)系進(jìn)行剖析�，F(xiàn)代化是發(fā)展中國(guó)家面臨的歷史任務(wù)——即通過現(xiàn)代性的不斷積累推動(dòng)傳統(tǒng)社會(huì)向現(xiàn)代社會(huì)轉(zhuǎn)變,這就使政治穩(wěn)定這一傳統(tǒng)課題被賦予了時(shí)代內(nèi)涵�？v向及橫向研究表明,政黨制度與政治穩(wěn)定之間存在著內(nèi)在聯(lián)系,其關(guān)鍵在于政黨制度是否具備足夠的韌性,從而與動(dòng)態(tài)發(fā)展的社會(huì)生態(tài)系統(tǒng)相適應(yīng)。 作為東亞地區(qū)的中小國(guó)家,馬來(lái)西亞的典型性首先在于其中等發(fā)展水平——作為新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體之一,其社會(huì)轉(zhuǎn)型特點(diǎn)突出,現(xiàn)代化使經(jīng)濟(jì)、政治與文化等層面的過渡性非常明顯。馬來(lái)西亞的典型性還體現(xiàn)在文化多樣性上,歷史及地理原因使這里成為世界主要文明交融碰撞的縮影。在馬來(lái)西亞政治發(fā)展過程中,穩(wěn)定訴求極其強(qiáng)烈——它既反映了對(duì)現(xiàn)代化與民族國(guó)家建構(gòu)的雙重要求,同時(shí)也在很大程度上歸因于政治精英的主觀建構(gòu)。典型的多元族群結(jié)構(gòu)使民族國(guó)家建構(gòu)任重而道遠(yuǎn),迅速推進(jìn)的現(xiàn)代化又導(dǎo)致了政治結(jié)構(gòu)與經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)結(jié)構(gòu)的不適應(yīng),以及權(quán)力與財(cái)富在不同社會(huì)集團(tuán)間的分配失衡。因此有必要通過一定的制度設(shè)計(jì)來(lái)解決政治穩(wěn)定問題,以確保現(xiàn)代化進(jìn)程不致中斷或逆轉(zhuǎn)。作為政治系統(tǒng)的內(nèi)生因素,政治文化是現(xiàn)代變遷的重要層面。在這一過程中,各族政治精英及大眾之間復(fù)雜多面的觀念互動(dòng),也使政治穩(wěn)定在某種意義上成為建構(gòu)的產(chǎn)物。在馬來(lái)西亞政治話語(yǔ)中,政治穩(wěn)定無(wú)疑是最常用的政治詞匯。統(tǒng)治精英試圖影響大眾的合法性評(píng)價(jià),并通過所控制的公共權(quán)力機(jī)構(gòu)、主流媒體以及教育機(jī)構(gòu),持續(xù)進(jìn)行政治整合。在某種意義上,馬來(lái)西亞是政治穩(wěn)定保持最好的發(fā)展中國(guó)家之一,堪稱伊斯蘭現(xiàn)代主義的典范。一果多因,現(xiàn)代化理論、政體穩(wěn)定理論以及政治文化理論等,對(duì)于馬來(lái)西亞的政治穩(wěn)定都有很強(qiáng)的解釋力。 鑒于族群、階級(jí)等層面的嚴(yán)重社會(huì)分化,一黨獨(dú)大制所承載的準(zhǔn)威權(quán)政體努力促成某種合作主義。早在非殖民化時(shí)期,政黨制度雛形就在外來(lái)因素與本土因素合力作用下奠定,并對(duì)馬來(lái)亞獨(dú)立進(jìn)程產(chǎn)生了重大影響,執(zhí)政黨的歷史合法性由此發(fā)軔�，F(xiàn)代化進(jìn)程啟動(dòng)后,執(zhí)政黨一度在經(jīng)濟(jì)領(lǐng)域?qū)嵭凶杂煞湃握?在政治領(lǐng)域則容許較高競(jìng)爭(zhēng)性的議會(huì)民主。但階級(jí)和族群分化不斷加劇,在活躍的政黨政治刺激下,社會(huì)動(dòng)員與政治參與很快超出了政治制度的容納力,進(jìn)而導(dǎo)致了上世紀(jì)六十年代末的嚴(yán)重騷亂。在現(xiàn)代化過程中,東亞威權(quán)政體具有工具性和過渡性等特點(diǎn),這集中體現(xiàn)在維持政治穩(wěn)定和促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)兩個(gè)維度上。但其效用性并非永不枯竭,威權(quán)體制下的經(jīng)濟(jì)績(jī)效、意識(shí)形態(tài)培育、環(huán)境強(qiáng)調(diào)、承諾誘惑以及個(gè)人魅力等因素都不過是民主的臨時(shí)替代。盡管上述族群沖突導(dǎo)致馬來(lái)西亞政治發(fā)展出現(xiàn)重大轉(zhuǎn)折,但并不能因此否定民主的普遍價(jià)值。民主政治受挫的根本原因是當(dāng)時(shí)較低的經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)發(fā)展水平,稚嫩的制度權(quán)威對(duì)于政治參與的吸納力不足,致使競(jìng)爭(zhēng)性民主與族群主義的矛盾無(wú)法調(diào)和。以族群為主軸的廣泛的執(zhí)政聯(lián)盟為政治穩(wěn)定提供了新的解決方案,具有更強(qiáng)集體行動(dòng)能力的國(guó)民陣線在很大程度上成為巫統(tǒng)的制度工具,但另一方面它也有效地避免了社會(huì)集團(tuán)間的零和或負(fù)和博弈。在巫統(tǒng)主導(dǎo)下,執(zhí)政聯(lián)盟協(xié)商分配權(quán)力,各成員黨在某種意義上成為利益相關(guān)者,精英聯(lián)盟的擴(kuò)大與鞏固成為政治穩(wěn)定的結(jié)構(gòu)性因素。 巫統(tǒng)堅(jiān)持發(fā)展主義,經(jīng)濟(jì)績(jī)效成為其最重要的合法性來(lái)源,并實(shí)現(xiàn)了從經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)到政治穩(wěn)定的功能轉(zhuǎn)換。但受傳統(tǒng)因素的影響,庇護(hù)現(xiàn)象普遍存在,統(tǒng)治精英們深深卷入經(jīng)濟(jì)領(lǐng)域。在執(zhí)政黨主導(dǎo)的現(xiàn)代化進(jìn)程中,政黨競(jìng)爭(zhēng)受到很大抑制,政治穩(wěn)定的壓制性特征比較突出。其中,族群因素幾乎是影響政治穩(wěn)定的常量——主要執(zhí)政黨把族群性視為自身最基本的合法性,族群關(guān)系被置于政策議程的優(yōu)先位置,這無(wú)疑使威權(quán)政體在控制族群沖突方面被賦予一定的正當(dāng)性。但威權(quán)主義存在著自身難以克服的悖論——成功的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展是一把雙刃劍,它在為巫統(tǒng)提供巨大績(jī)效合法性的同時(shí),也孕育著解構(gòu)其威權(quán)統(tǒng)治基礎(chǔ)的社會(huì)因素。這決定了發(fā)展中國(guó)家政治發(fā)展的非線性特點(diǎn),但經(jīng)濟(jì)現(xiàn)代化必將為政治民主創(chuàng)造更有利的基礎(chǔ)性條件。因此,威權(quán)主義的衰退是現(xiàn)代化變遷的必然結(jié)果,在這一過程中政治穩(wěn)定日益需要與民主化相結(jié)合。 政黨制度的合法性對(duì)于政治穩(wěn)定意義重大。其中,制度化是獲取合法性的重要路徑,也是評(píng)價(jià)發(fā)展中國(guó)家政治發(fā)展的基本尺度。制度化的基礎(chǔ)首先是憲政的發(fā)展,以及對(duì)政黨政治的具體規(guī)制。與其它發(fā)展中國(guó)家相比,馬來(lái)西亞政黨制度的制度化水平較高,即使巫統(tǒng)的執(zhí)政地位也需要訴諸于制度途徑。另一方面,其政黨制度中仍然存在著一些嚴(yán)重的缺陷,例如與傳統(tǒng)性有關(guān)的庇護(hù)制盛行于體制內(nèi)。這就有必要引入民主化變量,通過制度化與民主化的耦合,奠定政黨制度的合法性基礎(chǔ)。在各種政治權(quán)威中,執(zhí)政黨權(quán)威直接影響政府合法性。按照權(quán)威類型的演進(jìn)路向,政黨權(quán)威最終應(yīng)指向形態(tài)最優(yōu)、合法性最強(qiáng)的制度權(quán)威,它最能勝任現(xiàn)代化過程中的政治整合。其中,有效性是制度權(quán)威的核心要素,也是實(shí)現(xiàn)政治穩(wěn)定的基礎(chǔ)條件;如果缺乏有效的制度權(quán)威,發(fā)展中國(guó)家就很容易陷入“失敗國(guó)家”境地。 民主化趨勢(shì)不可阻擋,目前第三波對(duì)馬來(lái)西亞政黨制度的沖擊日益顯現(xiàn),政治穩(wěn)定功能有所下降。馬來(lái)西亞是典型的韌性威權(quán)政體,盡管政治轉(zhuǎn)型壓力不斷加大,但不太可能發(fā)生顛覆性變化。這是因?yàn)?馬來(lái)西亞政治系統(tǒng)的開放性較大,對(duì)于社會(huì)環(huán)境的回應(yīng)能力仍然較強(qiáng):其制度條件較有利于漸進(jìn)民主化,而不利于激進(jìn)主義的滋生。當(dāng)前“兩線制”雛形進(jìn)一步顯現(xiàn),執(zhí)政黨的準(zhǔn)霸權(quán)地位出現(xiàn)動(dòng)搖,主動(dòng)改革意愿上升。尤其是族群政治模式日益受到質(zhì)疑,作為經(jīng)濟(jì)現(xiàn)代化的產(chǎn)物,新興的市民社會(huì)正在成為政治發(fā)展的有生力量。東亞中產(chǎn)階級(jí)普遍具有保守性和革命性雙重特征:作為現(xiàn)代化的受益者,他們不愿看到社會(huì)政治秩序淪喪;而另一方面,其改革要求也日趨強(qiáng)烈。作為馬來(lái)西亞“新政治”的主要推動(dòng)者,反對(duì)黨、非政府組織以及獨(dú)立的新媒體彼此呼應(yīng),使反對(duì)陣營(yíng)得到拓展。民主化對(duì)于政治穩(wěn)定具有復(fù)雜影響,對(duì)于缺乏民主傳統(tǒng)的新興國(guó)家而言,漸進(jìn)的政治轉(zhuǎn)型有利于在較低的社會(huì)成本條件下實(shí)現(xiàn)政治穩(wěn)定。在這一過程中,政黨制度除了逐漸擴(kuò)大對(duì)政治參與的吸納外,還應(yīng)推動(dòng)國(guó)家與社會(huì)正向互動(dòng)關(guān)系的形成,從而在新的合法性基礎(chǔ)上重構(gòu)政治穩(wěn)定。 總之,本文立足于現(xiàn)代化進(jìn)程中的東亞國(guó)家,試圖對(duì)政治穩(wěn)定作出某種時(shí)代詮釋,并盡可能地把一些新的影響變量考慮進(jìn)來(lái)。盡管發(fā)展中國(guó)家與少數(shù)后現(xiàn)代國(guó)家共處于一個(gè)日益相互依賴的國(guó)際社會(huì)中,但彼此的根本關(guān)切卻相去甚遠(yuǎn)。在那些民族國(guó)家尚不鞏固的政治單位中,國(guó)家與社會(huì)關(guān)系正面臨著調(diào)整,而全球化以及網(wǎng)絡(luò)政治等滲透性因素又日益凸顯。在眾多的危機(jī)挑戰(zhàn)面前,一套有效的政黨制度仍將是后發(fā)展國(guó)家實(shí)現(xiàn)政治整合的基本依托。但它同樣需要吸收新興社會(huì)力量,逐漸實(shí)現(xiàn)治理模式的轉(zhuǎn)變——即建立政黨制度主導(dǎo)、多元主體參與的平等互動(dòng)的多維治理結(jié)構(gòu),這種彈性網(wǎng)狀結(jié)構(gòu)將更適應(yīng)政治穩(wěn)定的時(shí)代需要。總之,威權(quán)政體的結(jié)構(gòu)性危機(jī)具有必然性,未來(lái)這些國(guó)家的政黨制度變遷能否反映社會(huì)結(jié)構(gòu)變化,必將對(duì)其政治發(fā)展與政治穩(wěn)定產(chǎn)生深遠(yuǎn)影響。
[Abstract]:Concern at the unit level is the link between international politics and comparative politics --- the unit is the basis of both the international system and the comparative study. The rise of political development studies in the decade and the emergence of some major changes in the political development of the third world countries in the late Cold War, such as the rise of emerging economies, the democratic transformation of authoritarian regimes and the growing prominence of globalization, have led to changes in the intrinsic attributes of the international system, leading some to question the traditional third world. Whether the world still exists. At present, the third wave of democratization is still rewriting the political Atlas of developing countries, of which Southeast Asia is a typical region where diversity is the most obvious and the most convincing democratization testing ground. This paper attempts to analyze the complex relationship between democratization and political stability in a transitional society by taking the political party system as a variable. Modernization is the historical task facing developing countries, that is, to promote the transformation of traditional society into modern society through the accumulation of modernity, which makes it possible for them to realize modernization. The traditional subject of political stability is endowed with the connotation of the times. Vertical and horizontal studies show that there is an inherent relationship between the political party system and political stability. The key lies in whether the political party system has enough tenacity to adapt to the dynamic development of the social ecosystem.
As a small and medium-sized country in East Asia, Malaysia's typicality lies first in its moderate level of development --- as one of the emerging economies, its social transformation features are outstanding. Modernization makes economic, political and cultural transition very obvious. Malaysia's typicality is also reflected in cultural diversity, historical and geographical reasons. In the course of Malaysian political development, the demand for stability is extremely strong - it reflects the dual demands of modernization and nation-state construction, but also largely attributed to the subjective construction of political elites. There is a long way to go, and the rapid modernization has led to the maladjustment between the political structure and the economic and social structure, as well as the imbalance between the distribution of power and wealth among different social groups. Political culture is an important aspect of modern change. In this process, the complex and multi-faceted conceptual interaction between the political elites and the masses makes political stability a product of construction in a sense. In Malaysian political discourse, political stability is undoubtedly the most commonly used political vocabulary. The ruling elite tries to influence the masses. In a sense, Malaysia is one of the developing countries with the best political stability and can be regarded as a model of Islamic modernism. The theory of modernization has strong explanatory power for Malaysia's political stability.
In view of the serious social divisions at the ethnic and class levels, the quasi-authoritarian regime carried by the one-party dictatorship tried to promote some kind of cooperativeism. As early as the decolonization period, the embryonic form of the political party system was established under the combined effect of external and local factors, which had a significant impact on the process of Malayan independence and the historical legitimacy of the ruling party. After the start of the modernization process, the ruling party once adopted a laissez-faire policy in the economic field and allowed a more competitive parliamentary democracy in the political field. In the process of modernization, East Asian authoritarian regimes have the characteristics of instrumentality and transition, which are embodied in the two dimensions of maintaining political stability and promoting economic growth. Confusion and personal charm are temporary substitutes for democracy. Although these ethnic conflicts have led to a major turning point in Malaysia's political development, they cannot negate the universal value of democracy. The inadequate absorptivity makes it impossible to reconcile the contradiction between competitive democracy and ethnicism. The broad coalition of ruling ethnic groups provides a new solution to political stability. The National Front, which has stronger collective action capacity, to a large extent, has become the institutional tool of UMNO, but on the other hand it has effectively avoided the social problems. Under the leadership of UMNO, the ruling coalition negotiates and distributes power, and the member parties become stakeholders in a sense, and the expansion and consolidation of the elite coalition become a structural factor of political stability.
Wutong adheres to the development doctrine, economic performance becomes its most important source of legitimacy, and realizes the functional transformation from economic growth to political stability. The repressive characteristics of governance stability are more prominent. Among them, ethnic factors are almost constant factors affecting political stability. The main ruling parties regard ethnic characteristics as their most basic legitimacy, and ethnic relations are given priority on the policy agenda. This undoubtedly gives authoritarian regimes some legitimacy in controlling ethnic conflicts. Successful economic development is a double-edged sword. While it provides great performance legitimacy for UMNO, it also breeds social factors that deconstruct the basis of its authoritarian rule. Therefore, the decline of authoritarianism is the inevitable result of the changes of modernization, in which political stability increasingly needs to be combined with democratization.
The legitimacy of the political party system is of great significance to political stability. Among them, institutionalization is an important way to obtain legitimacy and a basic yardstick to evaluate the political development of developing countries. On the other hand, there are still some serious defects in its political party system, for example, the traditional asylum system prevails in the system. Therefore, it is necessary to introduce democratization variables to establish the political party system through the coupling of institutionalization and democratization. Among all kinds of political authority, the authority of the ruling party has a direct impact on the legitimacy of the government. According to the evolution direction of the authority type, the authority of the political party should ultimately point to the system authority with the best form and the strongest legitimacy, which is most competent for the political integration in the process of modernization. Basic conditions for political stability; without effective institutional authority, developing countries can easily fall into the "failed state" situation.
Malaysia is a typical resilient authoritarian regime. Despite the increasing pressure of political transformation, subversive changes are unlikely to occur. This is because Malaysia's political system is more open to the outside world. Its institutional conditions are more conducive to gradual democratization and less conducive to the breeding of radicalism. The embryonic form of the "two-line system" has further emerged. The ruling party's quasi-hegemonic position has been shaken and its willingness to reform has risen. As a result, the burgeoning civil society is becoming a vital force in political development. The East Asian middle class is generally conservative and revolutionary: as beneficiaries of modernization, they are reluctant to see social and political order deteriorate; on the other hand, their demands for reform are becoming increasingly strong. As the main impetus of Malaysia's "new politics" Democratization has a complex impact on political stability. For emerging countries without democratic traditions, gradual political transformation is conducive to political stability at lower social costs. In addition to gradually expanding the absorption of political participation, we should also promote the formation of positive interaction between the state and society, so as to reconstruct political stability on the basis of new legitimacy.
In a word, based on the East Asian countries in the process of modernization, this paper tries to interpret the political stability of the times and take into account some new influential variables as far as possible. Among the political units that are not yet consolidated in the nation-states, the relationship between the state and society is facing adjustment, while the permeability factors such as globalization and network politics are becoming increasingly prominent. The social forces will gradually realize the transformation of the governance model, i.e. the establishment of a multi-dimensional governance structure dominated by the political party system and participated by multi-stakeholders. This flexible network structure will be more suitable for the needs of political stability. In short, the structural crisis of authoritarian regimes is inevitable, and whether the changes of the political party system in these countries will be possible in the future. Reflecting the change of social structure will have a far-reaching impact on its political development and political stability.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山東大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2009
【分類號(hào)】：K33

【引證文獻(xiàn)】

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1 宋效峰;;馬來(lái)西亞的“第三條道路”:民主行動(dòng)黨的理念與實(shí)踐[J];東南亞南亞研究;2012年03期

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本文編號(hào)：2218959