本文選題：新馬爾薩斯理論 + 人口循環(huán)周期��； 參考：《史學(xué)集刊》2012年02期

【摘要】：馬爾薩斯理論在史學(xué)上被廣泛應(yīng)用。馬爾薩斯認(rèn)為人口的增長(zhǎng)導(dǎo)致饑餓和社會(huì)危機(jī),隨之而來(lái)的是人口數(shù)量的減少、消費(fèi)增加,隨后人口數(shù)量又開(kāi)始增加。人口數(shù)量的穩(wěn)定波動(dòng)就是人口循環(huán)周期。20世紀(jì)30年代俄國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家雅什諾夫在史學(xué)研究中第一次揭示了馬爾薩斯人口循環(huán)理論。隨后W.阿貝爾和M.波斯坦在歐洲史研究方面運(yùn)用了該理論。20世紀(jì)下半葉人口循環(huán)理論得到了深入的研究,尤其受到法國(guó)年鑒派史學(xué)家布羅代爾等人的重視。隨后,J.戈?duì)査雇ǖ娜丝诮Y(jié)構(gòu)理論為人口循環(huán)理論的發(fā)展注入了新的活力。近幾年以J.卡姆羅斯、P.圖爾欽為代表的學(xué)者廣泛采用數(shù)學(xué)模擬方法研究人口循環(huán)理論,運(yùn)用這一方法可將人口循環(huán)周期分為增長(zhǎng)階段、緊縮階段和生態(tài)危機(jī)階段。此外,運(yùn)用人口循環(huán)理論取得的研究成果有助于對(duì)社會(huì)和經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展做出預(yù)測(cè)。
[Abstract]:Malthus theory is widely used in history. Malthus believes that population growth leads to hunger and social crisis, followed by a decline in population size, increased consumption, and then the population began to increase. The stable fluctuation of population is the first time that Russian economist Yashnov revealed Malthus's theory of population cycle in the historical research in the 1930s. Then W. Abel and M. The theory of population cycle in the second half of the 20th century has been deeply studied, especially by the French almanac historian Brodell et al. Then J. Goldstone's theory of population structure injected new vitality into the development of population cycle theory. In recent years, J. Camroth. The scholars represented by Turchin widely use mathematical simulation method to study population cycle theory. By using this method, the population cycle can be divided into three stages: growth stage, contraction stage and ecological crisis stage. In addition, the research results obtained by using population cycle theory help to predict social and economic development.
【作者單位】： 俄羅斯科學(xué)院烏拉爾分院歷史與考古所;吉林大學(xué)東北亞研究院;延邊大學(xué)俄語(yǔ)系;吉林大學(xué);
【分類號(hào)】：K091
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本文編號(hào)：1930004