【摘要】：隨著中國(guó)社會(huì)主義市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)的確立與完善,與之配套的各項(xiàng)措施也逐漸完備。中國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)職工的退休制度經(jīng)歷了半個(gè)多世紀(jì)的實(shí)踐,為廣大退休人口的老年生活提供了比較有效的保障,而關(guān)于退休年齡的規(guī)定卻長(zhǎng)久以來(lái)沒(méi)有進(jìn)行相應(yīng)的改革,過(guò)早的退休年齡規(guī)定在一定程度上已經(jīng)影響到了中國(guó)未來(lái)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的進(jìn)程。因此,關(guān)于推遲退休年齡的討論近些年來(lái)越來(lái)越激烈。 隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)的不斷發(fā)展,人口預(yù)期壽命不斷延長(zhǎng),老齡化趨勢(shì)加劇,正常的法定退休年齡將導(dǎo)致較高的老年撫養(yǎng)比,養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)的支付壓力持續(xù)增加;同時(shí),中國(guó)自上個(gè)世紀(jì)八十年代開(kāi)始的人口計(jì)劃生育政策效應(yīng)開(kāi)始凸顯,人口紅利逐漸消失,未來(lái)勞動(dòng)力數(shù)量不斷減少。但是,長(zhǎng)期以來(lái),中國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)職工的退休年齡標(biāo)準(zhǔn)一直沒(méi)有更改過(guò),現(xiàn)階段的退休年齡尤其是女性退休年齡偏低,普遍低于英、美、德等發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家,具備進(jìn)行調(diào)整的可能性。在此背景下,關(guān)于退休年齡推遲的呼聲日漸增多,多數(shù)學(xué)者希望通過(guò)推遲城鎮(zhèn)職工的退休年齡來(lái)增加勞動(dòng)人口數(shù)量,提高勞動(dòng)人口系數(shù)和降低老年撫養(yǎng)比,從而依靠社會(huì)養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度自身來(lái)減少養(yǎng)老金支付壓力。 本論文從人口預(yù)測(cè)模型入手,通過(guò)設(shè)計(jì)不同的推遲退休方案,運(yùn)用定量的分析來(lái)論證中國(guó)推遲退休年齡的可行性,旨在通過(guò)各項(xiàng)數(shù)據(jù)指標(biāo)來(lái)說(shuō)明推遲退休年齡已經(jīng)到了必須提上議事日程的階段,并初步提出了具體實(shí)施推遲退休年齡的方案與措施。 本文共分五個(gè)部分: 第一章:推遲退休年齡的相關(guān)概念界定和理論綜述,提出生命周期理論、代際交疊模型、退休養(yǎng)老金的數(shù)理模型等,為后續(xù)研究提供理論基礎(chǔ)和指導(dǎo)。 第二章:退休政策的現(xiàn)狀及存在的問(wèn)題,通過(guò)分析現(xiàn)行退休制度來(lái)發(fā)現(xiàn)問(wèn)題。 第三章:推遲退休年齡的必要性分析,主要從人口規(guī)模和人口老齡化、勞動(dòng)力供求變化、平衡養(yǎng)老金收支均衡、消除男女職工性別差異、優(yōu)化老年人力資源配置等方面來(lái)論證推遲退休年齡的必要性。 第四章:推遲退休年齡的可行性分析,包括推遲退休年齡的方案設(shè)計(jì)、推遲退休年齡的效應(yīng)分析、推遲退休年齡三種方案比較及可行性,用大量的數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)論證推遲退休年齡的可行性。 第五章:推遲退休年齡的結(jié)論與政策建議,通過(guò)前面的研究得出實(shí)施彈性退休年齡、消除女工人女干部身份差異、男女職工退休年齡差別調(diào)整的結(jié)論,并為推遲退休年齡的實(shí)施提出了相應(yīng)的政策建議。
[Abstract]:With the establishment and perfection of China's socialist market economy, the corresponding measures are gradually completed. The retirement system of urban workers in China has experienced more than half a century of practice, which has provided a relatively effective protection for the elderly living of the vast number of retired people, but the regulations on the retirement age have not been reformed accordingly for a long time. The early retirement age has affected China's future economic development to some extent. As a result, discussions about postponing the retirement age have intensified in recent years. With the continuous development of economy and society, the life expectancy of the population continues to prolong, the trend of aging is aggravated, the normal legal retirement age will lead to higher old-age dependency ratio, and the payment pressure of the old-age insurance will continue to increase; at the same time, The effect of China's family planning policy, which began in the 1980s, has been highlighted, with the population dividend gradually disappearing and the number of labor in the future dwindling. However, for a long time, the standard of retirement age for urban workers in China has not been changed. At this stage, the retirement age, especially for women, is on the low side, which is generally lower than that of developed countries such as Britain, the United States, Germany and so on, and has the possibility of adjustment. In this context, there are more and more calls for the retirement age to be postponed. Most scholars hope to increase the number of the working population, increase the coefficient of the working population and reduce the dependency ratio of the elderly by postponing the retirement age of urban workers. Thus rely on the social endowment insurance system itself to reduce pension payment pressure. This paper starts with the population forecast model, through the design of different deferred retirement schemes, using quantitative analysis to prove the feasibility of delaying retirement age in China. The purpose of this paper is to show that the delay of retirement age has reached the stage that must be put on the agenda through various data indicators, and to put forward some concrete plans and measures to put the retirement age delay into practice. This paper is divided into five parts: the first chapter: the definition of the concept of deferred retirement age and theoretical review, put forward life cycle theory, intergenerational overlap model, mathematical model of retirement pension, etc. To provide theoretical basis and guidance for follow-up research. The second chapter: the present situation and existing problems of retirement policy, through the analysis of the current retirement system to find out the problems. Chapter III: the necessity of delaying the retirement age, mainly from the population size and population aging, labor force supply and demand changes, balance pension income and expenditure balance, eliminate gender differences between male and female workers, To optimize the allocation of human resources for the elderly to demonstrate the necessity of postponing the retirement age. Chapter four: the feasibility analysis of delaying retirement age, including the scheme design of delaying retirement age, the effect analysis of delaying retirement age, the comparison and feasibility of three schemes of delaying retirement age. There is plenty of data to prove the feasibility of postponing the retirement age. Chapter five: the conclusion and policy suggestion of postponing retirement age, through the previous research, the conclusion of implementing flexible retirement age, eliminating the identity difference of female workers and cadres, adjusting the difference of retirement age between male and female workers, And put forward the corresponding policy suggestion for postponing the implementation of the retirement age.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：遼寧大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2011
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：C913.7

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