基于GIS的縣域耕地壓力時空演變與預(yù)測研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-09-19 12:22
【摘要】：耕地是寶貴的自然資源,在保障國家糧食安全和經(jīng)濟社會持續(xù)健康發(fā)展方面發(fā)揮著重要作用。隨著城鎮(zhèn)化、工業(yè)化的不斷推進,有限的耕地被大量占用,耕地數(shù)量急劇減少。德(陽)綿(陽)地區(qū)作為成德綿經(jīng)濟帶的重要組成部分,是城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展的核心區(qū)域,人均耕地面積日益減少,截止2014年底,已有47%的縣域人均耕地面積低于0.053hm2(聯(lián)合國糧農(nóng)組織確定的人均耕地警戒線)。在“五化同步”和“一要吃飯,二要建設(shè)”的大背景下,耕地保護和糧食安全成為各級政府和國家土地管理部門重點關(guān)注的問題�；诖�,本研究在總結(jié)前人有關(guān)耕地壓力和糧食安全問題研究成果基礎(chǔ)上,借鑒蔡運龍教授所提出的耕地壓力指數(shù)模型,對2000—2014年德(陽)綿(陽)地區(qū)15個縣(區(qū)、市)的耕地壓力指數(shù)進行測算。借助ArcGIS10.2軟件對耕地壓力進行時空演變分析。利用灰色GM(1,1)預(yù)測模型,對未來10年各縣域的耕地壓力指數(shù)進行預(yù)測分區(qū),并提出針對性的耕地保護模式。主要研究結(jié)論如下:(1)從時序變化角度分析,2000—2014年間,德(陽)綿(陽)地區(qū)15個縣(區(qū)、市)耕地壓力指數(shù)變化總體上均呈逐年增大趨勢,除涪城區(qū)和北川縣變化趨勢較為突出外,其余縣域變化趨勢相對和緩。截止2014年底,耕地壓力最為明顯的7個縣(區(qū)、市)為:涪城區(qū)(K=3.7542)北川縣(K=2.3237)旌陽區(qū)(K=1.3687)平武縣(K=1.3078)江油市(K=1.3048)游仙區(qū)(K=1.1141)什邡市(K=1.0125);其余8個縣(區(qū)、市)耕地壓力不明顯(K1)。就耕地壓力指數(shù)變化速率而言,涪城區(qū)(138.14%)北川縣(133.37%)平武縣(50.30%)旌陽區(qū)(41.44%)游仙區(qū)(34.28%)江油市(31.72%)什邡市(27.66%);8個耕地壓力不明顯縣(區(qū)、市)中,羅江縣耕地壓力指數(shù)變化率高達42.32%,遠大于其他7個耕地壓力不明顯縣域,由此說明,耕地壓力變化速率快慢與耕地壓力大小不完全一致。(2)從空間分異角度分析,2000—2014年德(陽)綿(陽)地區(qū)15個縣(區(qū)、市)耕地壓力指數(shù)演變過程,總體上縣域耕地壓力均呈現(xiàn)不斷增加的趨勢,且中部主城區(qū)和西北部縣域更加明顯。其中,耕地壓力較大區(qū)域主要分布在中部的旌陽區(qū)、涪城區(qū)及其北部的北川縣、平武縣、江油市。就演變速率而言,2000—2007年,15個縣(區(qū)、市)中60%為耕地壓力緩慢變化和較緩變化類型,其中變化率最大的3個縣(區(qū)、市)是游仙區(qū)(14.79%)、什邡市(13.31%)和安縣(12.04%);27%的縣(區(qū)、市)為中速變化類型;無中高速變化類型;僅13%的縣(區(qū)、市)為急劇變化類型。2007—2014年,中速變化類型區(qū)演變?yōu)槠轿淇h、旌陽區(qū)、游仙區(qū);緩慢變化類型和較緩變化類型數(shù)量由原來的60%上升為67%,新增江油市、羅江縣;仍不存在中高速變化類型;急劇變化類型區(qū)保持不變。(3)從重心移動軌跡分析,2000—2014年德(陽)綿(陽)地區(qū)15個縣(區(qū)、市)耕地壓力重心存在由東南部向西北部縣域逐年移動的趨勢,說明西北部縣域耕地壓力逐年上升趨勢更加明顯;從經(jīng)緯度坐標變化距離分析得到,緯度上移動距離大于經(jīng)度上移動距離,說明研究區(qū)范圍內(nèi),南北走向的縣域間耕地壓力變化差異更大,耕地壓力在空間上的非均衡性更為突出。(4)從預(yù)測結(jié)果分析,未來10年15個縣(區(qū)、市)耕地壓力呈北部縣域和主城區(qū)耕地壓力明顯增大,東南部的丘陵區(qū)縣域耕地壓力有所降低趨勢。具體來看,變化趨勢分為四種類型:急劇上升型、緩慢上升型、基本穩(wěn)定型和緩慢下降型。(5)從耕地保護模式分析,基于對預(yù)測結(jié)果的綜合分析,并結(jié)合各縣域資源稟賦差異,對縣域耕地壓力進行分區(qū),探求提出四種耕地保護模式:“優(yōu)耕穩(wěn)益”模式、“重挖潛,高預(yù)警”模式、“優(yōu)化耕地生產(chǎn)力”模式和“適度經(jīng)濟”模式,以期對未來不同縣域制定具體的耕地保護政策提供一定的決策參考。
[Abstract]:Cultivated land is a precious natural resource and plays an important role in ensuring national food security and sustainable and healthy economic and social development. With the continuous promotion of urbanization and industrialization, the limited cultivated land has been occupied by a large number, and the number of cultivated land has decreased sharply. At the end of 2014, 47% of the counties had less than 0.053 hm2 per capita cultivated land. Under the background of "synchronization of the five modernizations" and "food and food, and construction", cultivated land protection and food security have become the land of governments and countries at all levels. On the basis of summing up the previous research results on farmland pressure and food security, this paper uses the farmland pressure index model proposed by Professor Cai Yunlong for reference to calculate the farmland pressure index of 15 counties (districts and cities) in Deyang (Yangyang) Mianyang (Yangyang) region from 2000 to 2014. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) From the perspective of time series, from 2000 to 2014, the cultivated land of 15 counties (districts, cities) in Deyang (Yangyang) region was cultivated. By the end of 2014, seven counties (districts and cities) with the most obvious cultivated land pressure were Fucheng (K = 3.7542) Beichuan (K = 2.3237) Peiyang (K = 1.3687) Pingwu (K = 1.3078) Jiangyou (K = 1.3048). In terms of the change rate of cultivated land pressure index, Fucheng District (138.14%) Beichuan County (133.37%) Pingwu County (50.30%) Peiyang District (41.44%) Youxian District (34.28%) Jiangyou City (31.72%) Shifang City (27.66%); in eight counties (districts, cities) with no significant cultivated land pressure index, Fucheng District (138.14%) Beichuan County (50.30%) Pingwu County (41.44%) Youxian District (34.28%) Jiangyou City (31.72%) Shifang City (27.66%). The change rate of cultivated land pressure index in county is 42.32%, which is much higher than that in other seven counties where the pressure of cultivated land is not obvious. This shows that the change rate of cultivated land pressure is inconsistent with the size of cultivated land pressure. (2) From the perspective of spatial differentiation, the evolution process of cultivated land pressure index in 15 counties (districts, cities) in Deyang (Yangyang) region from 2000 to 2014 is generally county. The pressure of cultivated land in the central city and the northwest counties is more obvious. Among them, the area with higher pressure of cultivated land mainly distributes in the central area of Zhuyang, Fucheng and its northern Beichuan County, Pingwu County, Jiangyou City. Among them, 3 counties (districts and cities) with the largest change rate were Youxian (14.79%), Shifang (13.31%) and Anxian (12.04%); 27% of counties (districts and cities) were medium-speed change type; there was no medium-high-speed change type; only 13% of counties (districts and cities) were rapid change type. The number of slow change types and slow change types increased from 60% to 67%, and the number of new Jiangyou City and Luojiang County increased from 60% to 67%. There was no medium-high speed change type; the rapid change type area remained unchanged. (3) From the track of gravity center movement, the gravity center of cultivated land pressure in 15 counties (districts and cities) in Deyang (Yangyang) area from 2000 to 2014 existed from southeast to Luojiang County. The trend of the northwest counties moving year by year indicates that the pressure of cultivated land in the northwest counties is more obvious year by year; from the analysis of the longitude and latitude coordinate change distance, the latitude moving distance is greater than the longitude moving distance, which indicates that within the study area, the pressure of cultivated land varies greatly between the counties moving north and south, and the cultivated land pressure varies spatially. (4) According to the analysis of the forecasting results, the cultivated land pressure of 15 counties (districts, cities) will increase obviously in the next 10 years. The cultivated land pressure of hilly areas in southeastern China will decrease. In particular, the change trend can be divided into four types: sharp rise, slow rise, basic stability and basic stability. (5) According to the analysis of cultivated land protection model, based on the comprehensive analysis of forecasting results, and combined with the differences of resource endowment in each county, the pressure of cultivated land in the county is divided into four types, which are "excellent cultivation and stable benefit" model, "re-tapping potential, high warning" model, "optimizing cultivated land productivity" model and "moderate economy". The "Ji" model is expected to provide certain decision-making reference for different counties to formulate specific cultivated land protection policies in the future.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：四川師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：K901
本文編號：2250108
[Abstract]:Cultivated land is a precious natural resource and plays an important role in ensuring national food security and sustainable and healthy economic and social development. With the continuous promotion of urbanization and industrialization, the limited cultivated land has been occupied by a large number, and the number of cultivated land has decreased sharply. At the end of 2014, 47% of the counties had less than 0.053 hm2 per capita cultivated land. Under the background of "synchronization of the five modernizations" and "food and food, and construction", cultivated land protection and food security have become the land of governments and countries at all levels. On the basis of summing up the previous research results on farmland pressure and food security, this paper uses the farmland pressure index model proposed by Professor Cai Yunlong for reference to calculate the farmland pressure index of 15 counties (districts and cities) in Deyang (Yangyang) Mianyang (Yangyang) region from 2000 to 2014. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) From the perspective of time series, from 2000 to 2014, the cultivated land of 15 counties (districts, cities) in Deyang (Yangyang) region was cultivated. By the end of 2014, seven counties (districts and cities) with the most obvious cultivated land pressure were Fucheng (K = 3.7542) Beichuan (K = 2.3237) Peiyang (K = 1.3687) Pingwu (K = 1.3078) Jiangyou (K = 1.3048). In terms of the change rate of cultivated land pressure index, Fucheng District (138.14%) Beichuan County (133.37%) Pingwu County (50.30%) Peiyang District (41.44%) Youxian District (34.28%) Jiangyou City (31.72%) Shifang City (27.66%); in eight counties (districts, cities) with no significant cultivated land pressure index, Fucheng District (138.14%) Beichuan County (50.30%) Pingwu County (41.44%) Youxian District (34.28%) Jiangyou City (31.72%) Shifang City (27.66%). The change rate of cultivated land pressure index in county is 42.32%, which is much higher than that in other seven counties where the pressure of cultivated land is not obvious. This shows that the change rate of cultivated land pressure is inconsistent with the size of cultivated land pressure. (2) From the perspective of spatial differentiation, the evolution process of cultivated land pressure index in 15 counties (districts, cities) in Deyang (Yangyang) region from 2000 to 2014 is generally county. The pressure of cultivated land in the central city and the northwest counties is more obvious. Among them, the area with higher pressure of cultivated land mainly distributes in the central area of Zhuyang, Fucheng and its northern Beichuan County, Pingwu County, Jiangyou City. Among them, 3 counties (districts and cities) with the largest change rate were Youxian (14.79%), Shifang (13.31%) and Anxian (12.04%); 27% of counties (districts and cities) were medium-speed change type; there was no medium-high-speed change type; only 13% of counties (districts and cities) were rapid change type. The number of slow change types and slow change types increased from 60% to 67%, and the number of new Jiangyou City and Luojiang County increased from 60% to 67%. There was no medium-high speed change type; the rapid change type area remained unchanged. (3) From the track of gravity center movement, the gravity center of cultivated land pressure in 15 counties (districts and cities) in Deyang (Yangyang) area from 2000 to 2014 existed from southeast to Luojiang County. The trend of the northwest counties moving year by year indicates that the pressure of cultivated land in the northwest counties is more obvious year by year; from the analysis of the longitude and latitude coordinate change distance, the latitude moving distance is greater than the longitude moving distance, which indicates that within the study area, the pressure of cultivated land varies greatly between the counties moving north and south, and the cultivated land pressure varies spatially. (4) According to the analysis of the forecasting results, the cultivated land pressure of 15 counties (districts, cities) will increase obviously in the next 10 years. The cultivated land pressure of hilly areas in southeastern China will decrease. In particular, the change trend can be divided into four types: sharp rise, slow rise, basic stability and basic stability. (5) According to the analysis of cultivated land protection model, based on the comprehensive analysis of forecasting results, and combined with the differences of resource endowment in each county, the pressure of cultivated land in the county is divided into four types, which are "excellent cultivation and stable benefit" model, "re-tapping potential, high warning" model, "optimizing cultivated land productivity" model and "moderate economy". The "Ji" model is expected to provide certain decision-making reference for different counties to formulate specific cultivated land protection policies in the future.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：四川師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：K901
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