本文選題：長(zhǎng)江中下游　切入點(diǎn)：旱澇災(zāi)害　出處：《第四紀(jì)研究》2004年05期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：文章利用旱澇災(zāi)害歷史記載與現(xiàn)代器測(cè)降水資料重建長(zhǎng)江中下游旱澇災(zāi)害等級(jí)序列 ,并通過相關(guān)分析與波譜分析、交叉譜分析等分別探討了長(zhǎng)江中下游旱澇災(zāi)害發(fā)生與東太平洋海水表面溫度 (SST)以及太陽(yáng)活動(dòng) (太陽(yáng)黑子數(shù) )的關(guān)系。結(jié)果表明 ,長(zhǎng)江中下游澇災(zāi)多發(fā)生于氣候過渡期 ,即澇災(zāi)在氣候由一種氣候狀態(tài)向另一種氣候狀態(tài)轉(zhuǎn)變時(shí)期多發(fā)。譜分析與交叉譜分析結(jié)果表明 ,長(zhǎng)江中下游旱澇災(zāi)害等級(jí)序列在 10～ 11年周期上與太陽(yáng)黑子數(shù)存在相關(guān) ,但兩者有近 1年的滯后性。長(zhǎng)江中下游旱澇災(zāi)害與SST的相關(guān)關(guān)系分析表明 ,SST正距平年份 ,往往對(duì)應(yīng)著長(zhǎng)江中下游的澇災(zāi) ;而SST負(fù)距平年份往往對(duì)應(yīng)著長(zhǎng)江中下游旱災(zāi)。因而可以認(rèn)為 ,SST與太陽(yáng)活動(dòng)變化(太陽(yáng)黑子數(shù)量變化 )在不同周期頻度上對(duì)長(zhǎng)江中下游旱澇災(zāi)害具有明顯影響。
[Abstract]:Based on the historical records of drought and waterlogging disasters and modern precipitation data, this paper reconstructs the sequence of drought and waterlogging disasters in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, and through correlation analysis and spectral analysis, The relationship between drought and waterlogging in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the sea surface temperature (SST) and solar activity (the number of sunspots) in the eastern Pacific is discussed by cross spectrum analysis. Most waterlogging disasters in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River occur in the transitional period of climate, that is, during the transition period of climate from one climatic state to another, the results of spectral analysis and cross-spectral analysis show that, The sequence of drought and waterlogging disasters in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River is related to sunspot number in 10 ~ 11 years period, but they have been delayed for nearly one year. The correlation analysis between drought and flood disaster and SST in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River shows that there is a positive anomaly year between the drought and waterlogging disasters in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. It often corresponds to the waterlogging disaster in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River; However, the negative anomaly year of SST often corresponds to drought in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, so it can be concluded that the variation of SST and solar activity (the number of sunspots) has a significant influence on the drought and flood disasters in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in different frequency.
【作者單位】： 中國(guó)科學(xué)院南京地理與湖泊研究所 中國(guó)科學(xué)院南京地理與湖泊研究所 中國(guó)科學(xué)院南京地理與湖泊研究所
【基金】：國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目 (批準(zhǔn)號(hào) :40 2 71112 ) 中國(guó)科學(xué)院知識(shí)創(chuàng)新工程重要方向項(xiàng)目 (批準(zhǔn)號(hào) :KZCX3 -SW -3 3 1) 中國(guó)博士后基金與王寬誠(chéng)博士后工作獎(jiǎng)勵(lì)基金項(xiàng)目 (香港 )
【分類號(hào)】：K928.6

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