蒙古國人口發(fā)展研究
發(fā)布時間：2019-06-19 16:30
【摘要】：人口是人類社會發(fā)展最基礎(chǔ)、最重要的因素。人類文明的起點(diǎn)需要一定規(guī)模的人口，人類進(jìn)步和發(fā)展依賴于人口規(guī)模的擴(kuò)大，沒有一定規(guī)模的人口，文明的延續(xù)和宗族的繁衍將受到威脅。另一方面，全球人口規(guī)模的急劇擴(kuò)大也對人類發(fā)展構(gòu)成新挑戰(zhàn)。 蒙古地處亞洲中部，總面積156.65萬平方公里，世界上第二大內(nèi)陸國家，國土面積在全世界排第18位。蒙古草原遼闊，礦產(chǎn)資源豐富，但是人口僅有275.5萬人（2010年），全國人口密度為每平方公里1.76人。蒙古人口問題主要體現(xiàn)在以下幾個方面：一是人口規(guī)模小，人口密度低；二是農(nóng)村人口不斷向城市遷移的同時，高素質(zhì)人口大量向國外遷移；三是城市化過度集中，2010年烏蘭巴托的人口占全國的43%，同時失業(yè)率持續(xù)上升；四是貧富差距逐步擴(kuò)大等。與此同時，蒙古人口問題與社會結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整、經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型、城市化等問題交織在一起，使得人口問題顯得更為突出之一。在這種背景下，本文選擇蒙古人口問題為研究課題，依據(jù)蒙古歷次人口普查數(shù)據(jù)，特別是2010年人口普查數(shù)據(jù)，對蒙古人口總量、生育、死亡、遷移、城市化等問題開展全面研究。 本文研究主要依據(jù)蒙古歷次人口普查資料，特別是對2010年人口普查資料進(jìn)行了深度挖掘，不僅詳細(xì)分析了目前蒙古的人口情況，對現(xiàn)代蒙古人口發(fā)展態(tài)勢、人口結(jié)構(gòu)、遷移與城市化等進(jìn)行分析，探討人口變化對經(jīng)濟(jì)社會發(fā)展的影響，同時對蒙古人口的發(fā)展趨勢進(jìn)行預(yù)測，分析蒙古經(jīng)濟(jì)社會發(fā)展過程中可能遇到的人口問題，探討相關(guān)人口政策，不僅可以豐富蒙古人口領(lǐng)域的相關(guān)研究成果，而且對探索蒙古人口與社會經(jīng)濟(jì)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展道路具有積極意義。 本文研究內(nèi)容共包括八章。第一章為緒論部分，主要闡述本文選題的背景、研究意義、理論基礎(chǔ)、國內(nèi)外相關(guān)研究成果綜述、研究內(nèi)容和結(jié)構(gòu)安排等。 第二章全面分析蒙古國人口發(fā)展變動的特點(diǎn)，闡述人口發(fā)展的三個階段性時期變化特點(diǎn)，通過分析生育率、死亡率和自然增長率等因素，說明蒙古國人口轉(zhuǎn)變的過程和趨勢，并且研究人口再生產(chǎn)類型變化的原因。重點(diǎn)分析影響蒙古人口發(fā)展的主要因素，，并探討蒙古人口發(fā)展面臨的主要問題，全面揭示蒙古人口發(fā)展歷史與現(xiàn)狀。 第三章分析蒙古的生育水平，從出生率、生育率、總和生育率等方面分析育齡婦女生育水平變動的特點(diǎn)和趨勢，并結(jié)合蒙古經(jīng)濟(jì)社會發(fā)展，探討影響生育水平變動的各種因素，最后提出蒙古生育模型。 第四章研究蒙古人口死亡問題，從人口死亡率、嬰兒死亡率、平均預(yù)期壽命等方面，探討蒙古人口死亡變動的特點(diǎn)，并且分析影響死亡的各種因素。 第五章分析蒙古人口遷移，重點(diǎn)研究人口遷移的歷史與現(xiàn)狀，揭示人口遷移規(guī)模、人口遷移流向以及遷移人口的各種典型特征，分析人口遷移的原因，并重點(diǎn)研究蒙古的國際人口遷移特點(diǎn)。 第六章分析蒙古人口結(jié)構(gòu)變動，主要探討人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)、性別結(jié)構(gòu)、區(qū)域分布、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的特點(diǎn)，研究人口結(jié)構(gòu)感動于社會經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的關(guān)系。 第七章分析蒙古人口城市化的特點(diǎn)和趨勢，通過分析蒙古城市化的歷史，揭示城市化與工業(yè)化發(fā)展的特點(diǎn)，闡述城市化面臨的主要問題，分析蒙古城市就業(yè)問題以及失業(yè)原因。蒙古人口城市化與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長保持了高度的同向性，不僅造成了環(huán)境污染的問題，而且造成勞動力就業(yè)問題、人口素質(zhì)問題、城鄉(xiāng)發(fā)展差距擴(kuò)大等問題。 第八章對蒙古未來人口進(jìn)行預(yù)測，并且結(jié)合蒙古未來人口與社會經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展目標(biāo)，分析蒙古人口政策及其變動趨勢，在此基礎(chǔ)上提出研究結(jié)論。 本文有所創(chuàng)新之處在于，全面分析了1918年以來蒙古人口的變化情況，將蒙古人口變化與自然條件、社會經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展結(jié)合起來，特別是重點(diǎn)研究1991年蒙古經(jīng)濟(jì)體制轉(zhuǎn)軌以后人口變化的特點(diǎn)，將蒙古的經(jīng)濟(jì)社會問題與人口問題緊密結(jié)合在一起。同時，本文結(jié)合相關(guān)理論對蒙古人口的發(fā)展趨勢進(jìn)行預(yù)測，對蒙古人口政策進(jìn)行梳理，并提出相關(guān)建議。
[Abstract]:Population is the most basic and important factor in the development of human society. The starting point of human civilization requires a certain scale of population. Human progress and development depend on the expansion of the scale of the population. Without a certain scale of population, the continuation of the civilization and the reproduction of the clan will be threatened. On the other hand, the rapid expansion of the global population size has also posed a new challenge to human development. Mongolia is located in the middle of Asia with a total area of 156.65 million square kilometers, and the second largest landlocked country in the world, and the land area is ranked 18 in the world Its vast, rich mineral resources, but there are only 275,000 people in the population (2010), with a national population density of 1.76 per square kilometre The problem of the population of Mongolia is mainly reflected in the following aspects: first, the population is small and the population density is low; the second, the rural population is moving towards the city, and the high-quality population is largely moved to the outside; the third is the over-concentration of the urbanization, and the population of Ulaanbaatar in 2010 accounts for 43 of the whole country At the same time, the unemployment rate has continued to rise, and the gap between the rich and the poor At the same time, the problem of the population of Mongolia and the problems of social structure adjustment, economic transformation and urbanization are intertwined, so that the population problem is more prominent. I. In this context, the paper selects the Mongolian population problem as the research subject, and carries out comprehensive research on the total population of Mongolia, the birth, the death, the migration, the urbanization and so on, in accordance with the data of the previous census of Mongolia, in particular the 2010 census data. The research is based on the data of the previous census in Mongolia, especially the data of the 2010 census, which not only analyses the current situation of the population in Mongolia, but also analyses the current situation of the population, the population structure, the migration and the urbanization of the modern Mongolian population. On the basis of line analysis, the paper discusses the influence of population change on the economic and social development, and forecasts the development trend of the Mongolian population, analyzes the population problem that may be encountered in the process of economic and social development of Mongolia, and probes into the relevant population policy, not only can enrich the relevant research in the area of Mongolian population To study the results, and to have an area for exploring the development of the Mongolian population and the socio-economic development road The significance of this paper. The contents of this paper The first chapter is the introduction part, mainly expounds the background, the research significance, the theoretical foundation, the domestic and foreign research results, the research contents and the research contents. The second chapter comprehensively analyzes the characteristics of the change of population development in Mongolia, and expounds the characteristics of the three stages of population development. By analyzing the factors such as fertility rate, mortality rate and natural growth rate, the paper states that the population of Mongolia Process and trend of change and study population reproduction The main factors that affect the development of the Mongolian population are analyzed and the main problems facing the development of the Mongolian population are analyzed, and the Mongolian population is fully revealed. The third chapter analyses the fertility level of Mongolia, analyzes the characteristics and trends of the change in the fertility of women of childbearing age from the aspects of the birth rate, the fertility rate and the total fertility rate, and discusses the various factors that affect the change of the fertility level in combination with the economic and social development of Mongolia. The fourth chapter is to study the characteristics of Mongolian population death from the aspects of population death rate, infant mortality, average life expectancy and so on. The paper analyses the various factors that affect the death of the population. The fifth chapter analyzes the history and present situation of the migration of the population, and focuses on the history and the present situation of the migration of the population, reveals the scale of the migration, the migration direction of the population and the typical characteristics of the migration of the population, analyzes the causes of the migration, and focuses on the reasons for the migration of the population. The paper studies the characteristics of the international migration of Mongolia. Chapter 6 analyzes the changes of the population structure in Mongolia, mainly discusses the age structure of the population, the sex structure, the regional distribution and the characteristics of the industrial structure. The paper analyses the characteristics and trends of the urbanization of the Mongolian population, analyses the history of the urbanization of Mongolia, and reveals the characteristics of the urbanization and the industrial development, and expounds the main problems facing the urbanization. The problem of the employment of the city in Mongolia and the causes of unemployment are analyzed. The urbanization and economic growth of the Mongolian population have kept the high level of the same direction, which not only caused the problem of environmental pollution, but also caused the employment of the labor force. Chapter 8 forecasts the future population of Mongolia, and analyses the Mongolian population and politics with the goal of the future population and socio-economic development of Mongolia The innovation of this paper is to analyze the change of the population in Mongolia since 1918, and combine the change of the population of Mongolia with the natural conditions and the development of the social and economic development. The characteristics of population change after the transition of the Mongolian economic system in 991, will The economic and social problems of Mongolia are closely combined with the population problem. At the same time, the development trend of the Mongolian population is pre-determined by the relevant theories.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：吉林大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：C924.2
本文編號：2502483
[Abstract]:Population is the most basic and important factor in the development of human society. The starting point of human civilization requires a certain scale of population. Human progress and development depend on the expansion of the scale of the population. Without a certain scale of population, the continuation of the civilization and the reproduction of the clan will be threatened. On the other hand, the rapid expansion of the global population size has also posed a new challenge to human development. Mongolia is located in the middle of Asia with a total area of 156.65 million square kilometers, and the second largest landlocked country in the world, and the land area is ranked 18 in the world Its vast, rich mineral resources, but there are only 275,000 people in the population (2010), with a national population density of 1.76 per square kilometre The problem of the population of Mongolia is mainly reflected in the following aspects: first, the population is small and the population density is low; the second, the rural population is moving towards the city, and the high-quality population is largely moved to the outside; the third is the over-concentration of the urbanization, and the population of Ulaanbaatar in 2010 accounts for 43 of the whole country At the same time, the unemployment rate has continued to rise, and the gap between the rich and the poor At the same time, the problem of the population of Mongolia and the problems of social structure adjustment, economic transformation and urbanization are intertwined, so that the population problem is more prominent. I. In this context, the paper selects the Mongolian population problem as the research subject, and carries out comprehensive research on the total population of Mongolia, the birth, the death, the migration, the urbanization and so on, in accordance with the data of the previous census of Mongolia, in particular the 2010 census data. The research is based on the data of the previous census in Mongolia, especially the data of the 2010 census, which not only analyses the current situation of the population in Mongolia, but also analyses the current situation of the population, the population structure, the migration and the urbanization of the modern Mongolian population. On the basis of line analysis, the paper discusses the influence of population change on the economic and social development, and forecasts the development trend of the Mongolian population, analyzes the population problem that may be encountered in the process of economic and social development of Mongolia, and probes into the relevant population policy, not only can enrich the relevant research in the area of Mongolian population To study the results, and to have an area for exploring the development of the Mongolian population and the socio-economic development road The significance of this paper. The contents of this paper The first chapter is the introduction part, mainly expounds the background, the research significance, the theoretical foundation, the domestic and foreign research results, the research contents and the research contents. The second chapter comprehensively analyzes the characteristics of the change of population development in Mongolia, and expounds the characteristics of the three stages of population development. By analyzing the factors such as fertility rate, mortality rate and natural growth rate, the paper states that the population of Mongolia Process and trend of change and study population reproduction The main factors that affect the development of the Mongolian population are analyzed and the main problems facing the development of the Mongolian population are analyzed, and the Mongolian population is fully revealed. The third chapter analyses the fertility level of Mongolia, analyzes the characteristics and trends of the change in the fertility of women of childbearing age from the aspects of the birth rate, the fertility rate and the total fertility rate, and discusses the various factors that affect the change of the fertility level in combination with the economic and social development of Mongolia. The fourth chapter is to study the characteristics of Mongolian population death from the aspects of population death rate, infant mortality, average life expectancy and so on. The paper analyses the various factors that affect the death of the population. The fifth chapter analyzes the history and present situation of the migration of the population, and focuses on the history and the present situation of the migration of the population, reveals the scale of the migration, the migration direction of the population and the typical characteristics of the migration of the population, analyzes the causes of the migration, and focuses on the reasons for the migration of the population. The paper studies the characteristics of the international migration of Mongolia. Chapter 6 analyzes the changes of the population structure in Mongolia, mainly discusses the age structure of the population, the sex structure, the regional distribution and the characteristics of the industrial structure. The paper analyses the characteristics and trends of the urbanization of the Mongolian population, analyses the history of the urbanization of Mongolia, and reveals the characteristics of the urbanization and the industrial development, and expounds the main problems facing the urbanization. The problem of the employment of the city in Mongolia and the causes of unemployment are analyzed. The urbanization and economic growth of the Mongolian population have kept the high level of the same direction, which not only caused the problem of environmental pollution, but also caused the employment of the labor force. Chapter 8 forecasts the future population of Mongolia, and analyses the Mongolian population and politics with the goal of the future population and socio-economic development of Mongolia The innovation of this paper is to analyze the change of the population in Mongolia since 1918, and combine the change of the population of Mongolia with the natural conditions and the development of the social and economic development. The characteristics of population change after the transition of the Mongolian economic system in 991, will The economic and social problems of Mongolia are closely combined with the population problem. At the same time, the development trend of the Mongolian population is pre-determined by the relevant theories.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：吉林大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：C924.2
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