發(fā)布時(shí)間：2019-06-06 16:03

【摘要】： 本文根據(jù)山東省第四次和第五次人口普查的人口數(shù)據(jù),在修正和調(diào)整數(shù)據(jù)的基礎(chǔ)上重新估計(jì)了山東省20世紀(jì)90年代的死亡水平,并結(jié)合衛(wèi)生統(tǒng)計(jì)部門得到的數(shù)據(jù)對(duì)山東省同時(shí)期的死亡原因進(jìn)行分析,利用第五次人口普查的數(shù)據(jù),選取分年齡死亡概率、嬰兒死亡率、平均預(yù)期壽命等幾個(gè)指標(biāo),運(yùn)用SPSS統(tǒng)計(jì)分析軟件比較了山東省各地市的死亡水平的差異情況,豐富了山東省20世紀(jì)90年代的死亡水平的研究,為以后的比較研究等提供基礎(chǔ)資料。 為準(zhǔn)確的估計(jì)山東省20世紀(jì)90年代的死亡水平,運(yùn)用留存分析方法根據(jù)兩次普查提供的死亡人口數(shù)據(jù)和人口數(shù)據(jù)估計(jì)第五次人口普查的漏報(bào)程度,在此基礎(chǔ)上修正和調(diào)整數(shù)據(jù),利用死亡力模型的假設(shè)重新計(jì)算山東省20世紀(jì)90年代的人口死亡水平,男性的預(yù)期壽命為69.5歲,女性為73.39歲,分別比修正前的計(jì)算結(jié)果降低了2.2歲和2.85歲。 根據(jù)衛(wèi)生部門的統(tǒng)計(jì)資料,從山東省全省在20世紀(jì)90的死因情況、死因的性別差異程度、各年齡組的死因構(gòu)成差異三個(gè)方面分析死因情況。全省的死因構(gòu)成比例和死因順位相對(duì)于70和80年代,除了傳染病的控制效果明顯外,其他列入監(jiān)測(cè)范圍的疾病差異不大,認(rèn)為山東省的疾病死亡模式已經(jīng)進(jìn)入發(fā)展中國家的模式。死因的性別差異程度較大的疾病仍主要表現(xiàn)在心腦血管疾病、腫瘤和意外死亡這三種死因上。相對(duì)于80年代的死因情況,90年代的分年齡死亡原因體現(xiàn)了一定的特點(diǎn)：意外死亡在90年代呈現(xiàn)出了低齡化的特征,且交通事故是造成意外死亡的主要原因；心腦血管疾病在老年人口中逐漸成為主要的死因。 本文根據(jù)2000年山東省第五次人口普查的資料以及山東省的行政區(qū)域劃分,通過編制山東省17個(gè)地級(jí)市的生命表,對(duì)地區(qū)間的死亡水平差異進(jìn)行了比較分析,選用分年齡死亡概率、嬰兒死亡率和平均預(yù)期壽命作為分析死亡水平的地區(qū)差異的指標(biāo)。山東省的嬰兒死亡率呈現(xiàn)了“西高東地”的特點(diǎn),而平均預(yù)期壽命沒有明顯的地理分布特征。
[Abstract]:Based on the population data of the fourth and fifth censuses of Shandong Province, this paper reestimates the death level of Shandong Province in the 1990s on the basis of revising and adjusting the data. Combined with the data obtained by the health statistics department, the causes of death in Shandong Province in the same period were analyzed. Using the data of the fifth census, several indexes, such as age death probability, infant mortality rate, average life expectancy and so on, were selected. SPSS statistical analysis software is used to compare the difference of death level among cities and cities in Shandong Province, which enriches the study of death level in Shandong Province in the 1990s and provides basic data for future comparative study. In order to accurately estimate the death level of Shandong Province in the 1990s, the retained analysis method is used to estimate the underreporting degree of the fifth census according to the death population data and population data provided by the two censuses, on the basis of which the data are revised and adjusted. The death level of Shandong Province in the 1990s was recalculated by using the hypothesis of death power model. The life expectancy was 69.5 years for men and 73.39 years for women, which were 2.2 years and 2.85 years lower than those before revision, respectively. According to the statistical data of health departments, the causes of death in Shandong Province in the 20th century were analyzed from three aspects: the cause of death in the 20th century, the degree of gender difference in the cause of death, and the difference in the composition of causes of death in each age group. Compared with the 1970s and 1980s, the proportion of causes of death and the order of causes of death in the province were significantly different from those in the 1970s and 1980s, except for the control effect of infectious diseases, but there was no significant difference in other diseases included in the scope of surveillance. It is considered that the disease death model in Shandong Province has entered the mode of developing countries. The major causes of death are cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, tumors and accidental deaths. Compared with the cause of death in the 1980s, the causes of age-specific death in the 1990s reflect certain characteristics: accidental death showed the characteristics of younger age in the 1990s, and traffic accidents are the main cause of accidental death; Cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases have gradually become the main cause of death in the elderly population. Based on the data of the fifth census of Shandong Province in 2000 and the division of administrative regions in Shandong Province, this paper compares and analyzes the difference of death level among regions by compiling the life tables of 17 prefecture-level cities in Shandong Province. The probability of death by age, infant mortality and average life expectancy were selected as indicators to analyze the regional differences in death levels. The infant mortality rate in Shandong Province shows the characteristics of "West and East", but the average life expectancy has no obvious geographical distribution characteristics.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：首都經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2010
【分類號(hào)】：C924.24

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