【摘要】：人類歷史上長(zhǎng)期和普遍存在的一些基礎(chǔ)性制度安排影響著社會(huì)的人口規(guī)模,并決定了一個(gè)社會(huì)的人口規(guī)模相對(duì)于其資源稟賦和技術(shù)水平是否是最優(yōu)的。這些基礎(chǔ)性制度安排在農(nóng)業(yè)社會(huì)主要表現(xiàn)為農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)中的自耕制、租佃制和雇工制。由于自耕制和雇工制下家庭的人口生產(chǎn)不會(huì)為家庭或者地主帶來(lái)新增的土地,因此人口生產(chǎn)沒(méi)有外部性,單個(gè)家庭理性決策產(chǎn)生的社會(huì)人口規(guī)模實(shí)現(xiàn)了社會(huì)最優(yōu)水平。但是租佃制下,新增的人口總能為家庭帶來(lái)新增的土地使用權(quán),當(dāng)?shù)刈饴什荒芡耆从惩恋貙?duì)產(chǎn)出的貢獻(xiàn)率,具體說(shuō)是當(dāng)?shù)刈饴市∮谕恋刎暙I(xiàn)率時(shí),人口生產(chǎn)就為家庭帶來(lái)一個(gè)正的外部性,從而激勵(lì)家庭生產(chǎn)更多人口,致使最終的社會(huì)人口規(guī)模超過(guò)最優(yōu)水平,出現(xiàn)人口過(guò)剩。將該理論應(yīng)用到對(duì)近代以來(lái)的人口轉(zhuǎn)變的解釋,發(fā)現(xiàn)技術(shù)進(jìn)步、雇工制的興起和市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展都為近代以來(lái)的人口增長(zhǎng)率的下降做出了貢獻(xiàn)。通過(guò)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)史的考察,確定農(nóng)業(yè)社會(huì)的地租率由習(xí)俗確定,而習(xí)俗確定的地租率一般而言低于土地對(duì)產(chǎn)出的貢獻(xiàn)率,因此農(nóng)業(yè)社會(huì)可能存在普遍的人口過(guò)剩。這就為剩余勞動(dòng)力的產(chǎn)生提供了一個(gè)微觀解釋。運(yùn)用本文的理論框架,對(duì)新中國(guó)成立以來(lái)的人口政策進(jìn)行了分析和評(píng)價(jià),指出了人口控制政策的性質(zhì),以及制度變遷和市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)在中國(guó)人口轉(zhuǎn)變過(guò)程中的作用,提出了人口政策應(yīng)該關(guān)注的另外一個(gè)方向,即人口“質(zhì)量”過(guò)剩的問(wèn)題。
[Abstract]:The long-term and widespread basic institutional arrangement in human history influences the population size of society and determines whether the population size of a society is optimal with respect to its resource endowment and technical level. These basic systems are arranged in the agricultural society mainly as the self-tillage system, the rent-making system and the employment system in the agricultural production. Since the production of the population under the self-tillage system and the domestic workers does not bring new land to the family or the landowner, the production of the population does not have the externality, and the social population scale produced by the single family rational decision realizes the social optimal level. However, under the lease system, the newly-added population will always bring the new land use right to the family, and when the land rent rate can not fully reflect the contribution rate of the land to the output, in particular, when the land rent rate is less than the land contribution rate, the population production brings a positive externality to the family, So as to stimulate the family to produce more people, so that the size of the final social population exceeds the optimal level, and the population is surplus. The application of this theory to the interpretation of the transformation of the population in the modern times has made a contribution to the decline of the population growth rate since the modern times, with the discovery of technological progress, the rise of the labor system and the development of the market economy. Through the study of the economic history, it is determined that the rent rate of the agricultural society is determined by the custom, and the land rent rate determined by the custom is generally lower than the contribution rate of the land to the output, so the agricultural society may have a widespread overpopulation. This provides a micro explanation for the production of the surplus labor force. The paper analyses and evaluates the population policy since the founding of the new China, and points out the nature of the population control policy, and the role of the system change and the market economy in the process of the population transformation in China, and puts forward the other direction that the population policy should pay attention to. That is, the problem of excess population "quality".
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西北大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：C92-05

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