【摘要】：以農(nóng)村人口遷移為背景,建立了由離散動(dòng)力學(xué)方程描寫的人口遷移模型,研究遷移導(dǎo)致的人口分布的區(qū)域特征。利益驅(qū)動(dòng)下的人類遷移行為往往是區(qū)域間相關(guān)因素交叉影響的結(jié)果,本文提出一個(gè)由人均收入、公共服務(wù)資源人均占有量和平均年齡構(gòu)造的一個(gè)區(qū)域廣義勢(shì)。當(dāng)某區(qū)域廣義勢(shì)高于各區(qū)域的平均時(shí),該區(qū)域?qū)⒂羞w出者;那些廣義勢(shì)比平均廣義勢(shì)較低的區(qū)域?qū)⑹沁@些遷出者的遷入?yún)^(qū):向不同區(qū)域遷入的人則由依賴于兩地間廣義勢(shì)之差的遷移概率決定。結(jié)果表明,凈遷入(遷出)人口隨時(shí)間指數(shù)衰減,遷出(遷入)區(qū)總?cè)丝�、人均收入、公共服�?wù)資源人均占有量均呈現(xiàn)近似為指數(shù)方式衰減(“反指數(shù)”方式增長(zhǎng)),最后達(dá)到三者相互匹配的相對(duì)穩(wěn)定態(tài)。信息熵、人口分布與斑圖演化均顯示一個(gè)兩極化的有序化過程。城市人口分為流動(dòng)人口和穩(wěn)定人口。流動(dòng)人口主要來自于農(nóng)村區(qū)域,是城市勞動(dòng)力的重要組成部分�？紤]中心城市勞動(dòng)力身份在流動(dòng)與穩(wěn)定之間轉(zhuǎn)化以及農(nóng)村——中心城市人口互相遷移,同時(shí)借鑒統(tǒng)計(jì)動(dòng)力學(xué)的若干思想,建立由一組微分方程所描寫的人口遷移連續(xù)動(dòng)力學(xué)模型,考察中心城市與周邊農(nóng)村區(qū)域間人口遷移的基本特征。模擬結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn),遷移導(dǎo)致農(nóng)村區(qū)域形成三種類型,凈遷出區(qū),先遷出后遷入?yún)^(qū)以及凈遷入?yún)^(qū)域。需特別指出的是先遷出后遷入?yún)^(qū)域中,發(fā)育成長(zhǎng),最后形成了人口規(guī)模接近原中心城市的第二中心城市,通過分析回遷區(qū)域人口密度變化以及中心城市穩(wěn)定人口、流動(dòng)人口、總?cè)丝诘拿芏妊莼?解釋了出現(xiàn)第二中心城市的成因。實(shí)證結(jié)果說明了模擬結(jié)果的現(xiàn)實(shí)對(duì)應(yīng)。
[Abstract]:Based on the background of rural population migration, a population migration model described by discrete dynamic equation is established to study the regional characteristics of population distribution caused by migration. Human migration behavior driven by interests is often the result of the cross-influence of interregional related factors. In this paper, a regional broad potential constructed by per capita income, per capita share of public service resources and average age is proposed. When the broad meaning of a region is higher than the average of each region, there will be emigrants in that region. Those regions with lower generalized potential ratio will be the moving areas of these emigrants: those who move to different regions will be determined by the probability of migration depending on the difference of the broad potential between the two places. The results show that the net inflow (emigration) population decays with the time index, the total population, per capita income and the per capita share of public service resources show similar exponential decay ("anti-exponential" growth). Finally, the relative stable state of the three matched with each other is achieved. Information entropy, population distribution and pattern evolution all show an ordered process of polarization. The urban population is divided into floating population and stable population. Floating population mainly comes from rural areas and is an important part of urban labor force. Considering the transformation of labor force identity between mobility and stability in central cities and the migration of rural-central urban population to each other, and drawing lessons from some ideas of statistical dynamics, A continuous dynamic model of population migration described by a set of differential equations is established to investigate the basic characteristics of population migration between central cities and surrounding rural areas. The simulation results show that the migration leads to the formation of three types of rural areas, namely, the net migration area, the first moving out area, then the moving area and the net moving area. It should be pointed out in particular that the population size of the second central city, which is close to the original central city, has been formed by first moving out and then moving into the region, and finally forming the second central city with a population size close to the original central city. Through the analysis of the change of population density in the relocation area and the stable population and floating population of the central city, The density evolution of the total population explains the causes of the emergence of the second central city. The empirical results show the realistic correspondence of the simulation results.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：寧夏大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：C922

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