本文關(guān)鍵詞：全球視角下的人口結(jié)構(gòu)變遷與國際資本流動，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。

ISEM 學(xué)術(shù)論壇[四]——Causal Inference on Pricing Power between Firmsand International Capital Flows ISEM Seminar

 ISEM Seminar: “Causal Inference on Pricing Power between Firmsand International Capital Flows”

Speakers: Lai, Pei-Chun (ISEM); Zhu, Chao (SOF)

Time: 2:00pm-3:30pm,21thNovember, 2012

Place:Bona Building, 230

ISEM 學(xué)術(shù)論壇 [四]

——“廠商間定價能力的追溯和國際資本流動”

主講人：賴佩君（國際經(jīng)管學(xué)院助理教授），朱超（金融學(xué)院副教授）

時間：2012年11月21日（周三）下午2:00-3:30

地點：博納樓230室

主辦方：國際經(jīng)管學(xué)院、經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院

Section 1

Causal Discovery of the Pricing Power between Carbonated Soft Drinks Manufacturer and Supermarket

Lai, Pei-Chun

Abstract:Pricing power in a distributional channel has been the subject of much attention in marketing studies. This paper appliesLiNGAM to identify the causal relationship between supermarket’s price, manufacturer’s price, and number of packages that is used to judge which channel member has higher pricing power. The dataset includes the top-ten best-selling carbonated soft drink (CSD) brands with 6-pack, 12-pack, 24-pack, and 2 liters in the United States between 1996 and 1998. The results show that the retailer has stronger pricing power than CSD manufacturers in the majority of cases studied.

Keywords:Pricing Power; Channel Power; Vertical Relationships; Linear Non-Gaussian Acyclic Models

Section 2

The Global Demographic Structure and the Anatomy of International Capital Flows

Zhu, Chao

Abstract:This paper investigated the relationship between the demographic structure and international capital flows with the panel data of the past 50 years and the projection of the rest of the 21st century of 190 countries. Theoretically, it is supposed that the current account balance is negatively related to the demographic structure proxyed by the dependency ratios. The results of this paper supported the hypothesis. Since the middle of the last century, United States, Europe, Japan, China exported capital in turn. In the 21st century, China, India, Africa will in turn become the main exporter of capital, while the developed countries in Europe and United States will keep importing capital. China will transit to be a capital-importing country around 2030 due to its rapid aging. Given the population structure of the world, the future situation of the international capital flow of the world requires more serious concerns and responses.

Keywords: Demographic Structure, Current Account Balance, International Capital Flows

專題1

碳酸汽水業(yè)與超商間定價能力的追溯

賴佩君

關(guān)鍵詞：定價能力,渠道權(quán)力, 垂直結(jié)構(gòu)研究,線性非高斯無環(huán)因果模型

專題2

全球視角下的人口結(jié)構(gòu)變遷與國際資本流動

朱超

摘要：本文選取了世界190個國家過去60年的面板數(shù)據(jù)及21世紀(jì)的預(yù)測數(shù)據(jù)，考察了人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)和國際資本流動的關(guān)系。從全球范圍內(nèi)來看，總體上經(jīng)常賬戶余額與人口撫養(yǎng)比的逆向關(guān)系得到支持。對應(yīng)著各國人口結(jié)構(gòu)的階梯性變動，，全球國際資本流動格局總體上呈現(xiàn)成年國家流向老年或少年國家的局面。從梯隊來看，繼上世紀(jì)中葉以來，第一梯隊美國、歐洲，第二梯隊日本、中國、東南亞，第三梯隊中亞、南亞、西亞、非洲依次向世界輸出資本。歐、美、澳、新等國家或地區(qū)在21世紀(jì)會持續(xù)進(jìn)口資本，中國會在21世紀(jì)30年代，東南亞將在50年代開始由資本輸出國轉(zhuǎn)向資本輸入國。給定世界和中國未來的人口結(jié)構(gòu)變遷，未來世界國際資本流動格局需要更嚴(yán)肅的思考和應(yīng)對。

關(guān)鍵詞：人口結(jié)構(gòu)；經(jīng)常賬戶；國際資本流動；預(yù)測

主講人簡介

賴佩君，首都經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)國際經(jīng)濟(jì)管理學(xué)院助理教授。分別在臺灣大學(xué)獲經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)學(xué)士、美國德州農(nóng)工大學(xué)的經(jīng)濟(jì)碩士與農(nóng)經(jīng)博士學(xué)位。曾在美國Agricultural & Applied Economics Association Annual Meeting與Transportation Research Forum’s Annual Meeting等國際學(xué)術(shù)會議上作過多篇學(xué)術(shù)報告。

朱超，首都經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)金融學(xué)院副教授，副院長。明尼蘇達(dá)大學(xué)交流學(xué)者。曾在《金融研究》、《世界經(jīng)濟(jì)》、《中國人口科學(xué)》、《China & World Economy》、《經(jīng)濟(jì)科學(xué)》、《數(shù)量經(jīng)濟(jì)技術(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)研究》、《財經(jīng)研究》等期刊發(fā)表論文多篇。

歡迎廣大師生參加。

（日期：2013-11-21 作者： 來源：）

  本文關(guān)鍵詞：全球視角下的人口結(jié)構(gòu)變遷與國際資本流動，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。