【摘要】：人口問題一直是世界各國(guó)關(guān)注的社會(huì)問題。每個(gè)國(guó)家根據(jù)不同的國(guó)情,實(shí)施不同的人口政策。大多數(shù)國(guó)家隨著人口轉(zhuǎn)變的完成,帶來一個(gè)嚴(yán)重的結(jié)果,即人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)變化帶來人口老齡化加劇(指60及65歲以上,本文特指65歲及以上人口)。人口老齡化是指人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)的老齡化,是社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的必然結(jié)果,是人類社會(huì)發(fā)展進(jìn)程中的必然趨勢(shì)。人口老齡化和老年人口問題引起世界特別是發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家的關(guān)注,并成為世界性的一個(gè)熱點(diǎn)問題,應(yīng)當(dāng)是在20世紀(jì)80年代初期。當(dāng)時(shí),對(duì)于發(fā)展中國(guó)家來說尚不知“人口老齡化”為何物,僅僅過去30年,今天許多發(fā)展中國(guó)家也面臨著人口老齡化和老年人口問題。 進(jìn)入21世紀(jì)以來,湖北省人口老齡化進(jìn)程不斷加快,湖北省人口老齡化的迅速發(fā)展,不僅會(huì)增加社會(huì)負(fù)擔(dān),而且還會(huì)增加家庭負(fù)擔(dān),如果未來湖北省人口老齡化繼續(xù)加劇,離休和退休人員在總?cè)丝谥兴嫉谋戎貙?huì)不斷增加,養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)基金的支出缺口也將變得更大,這勢(shì)必會(huì)給湖北的社會(huì)保障機(jī)構(gòu)帶來巨大壓力,并在較大程度上影響湖北省社會(huì)保障水平的提高以及社會(huì)保障范圍的擴(kuò)大,加重勞動(dòng)者的經(jīng)濟(jì)負(fù)擔(dān),最終影響社會(huì)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展。 1、定性分析與定量分析相結(jié)合。定性分析是指對(duì)研究對(duì)象進(jìn)行“質(zhì)”的方面的分析,即用定義來表述事物的基本特征或本質(zhì)特點(diǎn)的；定量分析是對(duì)研究對(duì)象的數(shù)量特征、數(shù)量關(guān)系與數(shù)量變化分析,是用來衡量事物發(fā)展程度或多少的。本文在借鑒以往研究成果和湖北省目前狀況的基礎(chǔ)上,對(duì)湖北省人口老齡化預(yù)測(cè)進(jìn)行大量的定量分析,問或運(yùn)用定性分析對(duì)湖北省人口老齡化的現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行分析。 2、理論研究和實(shí)際分析相結(jié)合。以國(guó)內(nèi)外學(xué)者對(duì)中國(guó)人口老齡化預(yù)測(cè)理論為指導(dǎo),結(jié)合湖北省的實(shí)際情況,對(duì)湖北的人口總數(shù)、老齡化系數(shù)等相關(guān)因素進(jìn)行具體的剖析,從而提出相應(yīng)的對(duì)策和建議。 3、首先對(duì)影響人口老齡化發(fā)展的指標(biāo)采用主成分分析進(jìn)行降維,在等維灰數(shù)遞補(bǔ)的動(dòng)態(tài)GM(1,1)模型基礎(chǔ)上以2005—2010各年的老齡化人口總數(shù)為統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù),較為準(zhǔn)確地對(duì)短期老齡化人口進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)。再次利用Leslie矩陣的預(yù)測(cè)模型對(duì)湖北省中長(zhǎng)期進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè),并全面反映人口結(jié)構(gòu)變化趨勢(shì)。 4、在對(duì)湖北人口老齡化預(yù)測(cè)分析的基礎(chǔ)上,為政府面對(duì)人口老齡化的不斷加劇問題提供較為準(zhǔn)確的參數(shù),確保湖北省政府提前布局,完善老齡產(chǎn)業(yè)與社會(huì)養(yǎng)老保障體系,為更好的發(fā)揮老年人力資源在國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)中的角色作用進(jìn)而促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)快速增長(zhǎng)提出政策建議。
[Abstract]:Population has always been a social issue of concern to all countries in the world. Each country carries out different population policies according to different national conditions. With the completion of population transformation, most countries have brought about a serious result, that is, the change of population age structure has led to the aggravation of population aging (that is, 60 and over years of age, this article refers to the population aged 65 years and above). The aging of the population is the aging of the age structure of the population. It is the inevitable result of the development of the social economy and the inevitable trend of the development of the human society. The aging of population and the problem of old-age population have attracted the attention of the world, especially in developed countries, and become a hot issue in the world. It should be in the early 80's of the 20th century. At that time, developing countries still do not know why "population ageing", just 30 years ago, many developing countries today are also facing population ageing and elderly population problems. Since the beginning of the 21st century, the process of population aging in Hubei Province has been speeding up. The rapid development of population aging in Hubei Province will not only increase the social burden, but also increase the burden of families. If the population aging in Hubei Province continues to intensify in the future, The proportion of retirees and retirees in the total population will continue to increase, and the gap in the expenditure of pension funds will also become larger, which is bound to bring enormous pressure on the social security agencies in Hubei Province. And to a great extent, it affects the improvement of social security level and the expansion of social security scope in Hubei Province, aggravates the economic burden of labourers, and finally affects the sustainable development of society. 1. Combination of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis. Qualitative analysis refers to the analysis of the "quality" of the research object, that is to say, the definition is used to express the basic or essential characteristics of the object. Quantitative analysis is a quantitative analysis of the quantitative characteristics, quantitative relations and quantitative changes of the research object, which is used to measure the degree or number of the development of things. Based on the previous research results and the present situation of Hubei Province, this paper makes a lot of quantitative analysis on the prediction of population aging in Hubei Province, and then analyzes the present situation of population aging in Hubei Province by qualitative analysis. 2, the combination of theoretical research and practical analysis. Guided by the prediction theory of population aging in China and combined with the actual situation of Hubei Province, this paper makes a concrete analysis of the related factors such as the total population and the aging coefficient of Hubei Province, and then puts forward the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions. 3. Firstly, the principal component analysis is used to reduce the dimension of the indexes affecting the development of population aging. Based on the dynamic GM (1,1) model with equal dimension grey numbers, the total number of aging population in 2005 / 2010 is used as the statistical data. Forecast the short-term aging population more accurately. Thirdly, the forecasting model of Leslie matrix is used to predict the long-term and long-term population structure of Hubei Province, and the trend of population structure change is fully reflected. 4. On the basis of prediction and analysis of population aging in Hubei province, this paper provides more accurate parameters for the government to face the increasing problem of population aging, ensures the early layout of Hubei provincial government, and consummates the old-age industry and social old-age security system. In order to give full play to the role of the elderly human resources in the national economy and promote the rapid economic growth put forward policy recommendations.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：武漢理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：O242.1;C924.24

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