【摘要】：新時期“五大發(fā)展”理念的提出,使得人口、經(jīng)濟(jì)與生態(tài)的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展問題越來越多的受到學(xué)術(shù)界和社會的熱切關(guān)注與重視。良好的生態(tài)環(huán)境是人類活動與社會經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的物質(zhì)基礎(chǔ);持續(xù)的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展則為生態(tài)環(huán)境保護(hù)和人類健康發(fā)展提供基礎(chǔ)保障;人口作為消費者和創(chuàng)造者,是調(diào)控經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展和生態(tài)環(huán)境運行方向的主導(dǎo)力量,也是協(xié)調(diào)二者關(guān)系的紐帶。人口、經(jīng)濟(jì)與生態(tài)三者之間相互作用、相互影響、相互制約,忽略任何一者都會嚴(yán)重制約整個區(qū)域的可持續(xù)發(fā)展。但伴隨著我國人口數(shù)量的增多、經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速發(fā)展,其與生態(tài)環(huán)境的矛盾逐步顯現(xiàn),尤其是西北干旱脆弱區(qū)。農(nóng)民過度的農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)經(jīng)營活動,雖然短期內(nèi)可以促進(jìn)農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展,提高人均收入水平;但長期來看,會給當(dāng)?shù)厣鷳B(tài)環(huán)境造成嚴(yán)重的破壞性影響。因此,如何科學(xué)客觀的評判人口、農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)與生態(tài)的相互作用關(guān)系,對促進(jìn)三者協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展及實現(xiàn)區(qū)域可持續(xù)發(fā)展尤為重要。本文在全面梳理國內(nèi)外關(guān)于人口、經(jīng)濟(jì)和生態(tài)耦合協(xié)調(diào)方面相關(guān)研究的基礎(chǔ)上,以民勤縣為研究區(qū)域,根據(jù)民勤縣人口、農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)及生態(tài)方面的數(shù)據(jù),在對三者相互作用機(jī)理和發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀介紹的基礎(chǔ)上,采用變異系數(shù)法和耦合協(xié)調(diào)度模型,對2000~2014年民勤縣人口系統(tǒng)、農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)與生態(tài)系統(tǒng)各自綜合發(fā)展水平及三者耦合協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展關(guān)系的動態(tài)變化進(jìn)行了測算和分析。研究結(jié)果表明:1)2000~2014年民勤縣人口、農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)和生態(tài)系統(tǒng)的綜合評價指數(shù)最大值分別為0.578、0.663和0.412,三者總體發(fā)展水平均較低,其中農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展相對較快,人口發(fā)展有待優(yōu)化,生態(tài)問題尤為突出。2)近15年來民勤縣人口—農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)—生態(tài)系統(tǒng)耦合度和耦合協(xié)調(diào)度大體均呈先下降后上升的趨勢。耦合度C在0.372~0.696間波動,經(jīng)歷了頡頏耦合和磨合耦合兩個階段,現(xiàn)處于磨合耦合階段;耦合協(xié)調(diào)度D在0.325~0.639間波動,2000~2006年從失調(diào)衰退向過渡調(diào)和更替變化,2007~2014年由過渡調(diào)和向協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展轉(zhuǎn)變,整體實現(xiàn)了由失調(diào)衰退到協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展的良性轉(zhuǎn)化。3)影響民勤縣人口、農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)與生態(tài)系統(tǒng)三者耦合協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展的因素主要表現(xiàn)在產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整、自然生態(tài)環(huán)境、資源利用和人口壓力四個大的方面。最后,依據(jù)實證結(jié)果和主要制約因素,有針對性地從以下五個方面提出了建議:控制人口數(shù)量,優(yōu)化城鄉(xiāng)結(jié)構(gòu);加大教育移民,提高人口素質(zhì);調(diào)整農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu),發(fā)展特色優(yōu)勢產(chǎn)業(yè);轉(zhuǎn)變農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展方式,提高資源利用效率;合理分配利用資源,加強(qiáng)生態(tài)環(huán)境治理。
[Abstract]:In the new period, the concept of "five great development" is put forward, which makes the coordinated development of population, economy and ecology get more and more attention and attention from academia and society. Good ecological environment is the material basis of human activities and socio-economic development, and sustainable economic development provides basic guarantee for ecological environment protection and human healthy development. As consumers and creators, population is the leading force to regulate the direction of economic development and ecological environment operation, and it is also the link to coordinate the relationship between them. The interaction, influence and restriction of population, economy and ecology will seriously restrict the sustainable development of the whole region. However, with the increase of population and the rapid development of economy in China, the contradiction between it and ecological environment appears gradually, especially in the arid and fragile areas of northwest China. The excessive agricultural production and management of farmers can promote the development of agricultural economy and raise the level of per capita income in the short term, but in the long run, it will cause serious damage to the local ecological environment. Therefore, how to scientifically and objectively judge the interaction between population, agricultural economy and ecology is particularly important to promote the coordinated development of the three and to realize the sustainable development of the region. Based on a comprehensive review of domestic and foreign research on population, economic and ecological coupling and coordination, this paper takes Minqin County as the research area, and according to the data on population, agricultural economy and ecology of Minqin County, On the basis of introducing the interaction mechanism and the present situation of the development of the three, this paper adopts the coefficient of variation method and the coupling coordination degree model to analyze the population system of Minqin County in 2000-2014. The dynamic changes of the comprehensive development level of agricultural economic system and ecosystem and the coupling and coordinated development of the three systems were measured and analyzed. The results show that: 1) the maximum values of population, agricultural economy and ecosystem comprehensive evaluation index of Minqin County in 2000-2014 are 0.578, 0.663 and 0.412, respectively. The overall development level of these three indexes is relatively low, among which the agricultural economy develops relatively fast, and the comprehensive evaluation index of agricultural economy and ecosystem is 0.578, 0.663 and 0.412, respectively. The population development needs to be optimized, especially ecological problems. 2) in the last 15 years, the coupling degree and coordination degree of population-agriculture economy-ecosystem in Minqin County have generally decreased first and then increased. The coupling degree C fluctuated between 0.372and 0.696, and went through two stages: antagonistic coupling and running-in coupling, and now it is in the running-in coupling stage. The degree of coupling coordination D fluctuated between 0.325 and 0.639. From 2000 to 2006, the degree of coupling coordination changed from maladjustment recession to transition harmonic replacement, and from 2007 to 2014, it changed from transition harmonic to coordinated development. 3) the factors that affect the coupling and coordinated development of population, agricultural economy and ecosystem in Minqin County are mainly reflected in the adjustment of industrial structure, natural ecological environment, and so on, and the main factors that affect the harmonious development of Minqin County population, agricultural economy and ecosystem are the adjustment of industrial structure and natural ecological environment. Four major aspects of resource utilization and population pressure. Finally, according to the empirical results and main constraints, suggestions are put forward from the following five aspects: control the population, optimize the structure of urban and rural areas, increase education migration, improve the quality of the population; We should adjust the agricultural industrial structure, develop the characteristic advantage industry, change the agricultural development mode, improve the efficiency of resource utilization, rationally distribute and utilize the resources, and strengthen the ecological environment management.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：甘肅農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：C924.2;F327

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