【摘要】：在我國人口預(yù)期壽命迅速提高、老齡化日益嚴(yán)峻的背景下，退休年齡保持不變導(dǎo)致勞動(dòng)者退休后的生活時(shí)間不斷延長、大量退休職工再就業(yè)，繼而引發(fā)養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)基金收支缺口日益擴(kuò)大。由于退休年齡規(guī)定對勞動(dòng)力供求平衡及養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)基金良性運(yùn)營的深刻影響，因此如何在科學(xué)預(yù)測基礎(chǔ)上，有計(jì)劃的對退休年齡做出適當(dāng)調(diào)整，便成為一個(gè)重要的現(xiàn)實(shí)及學(xué)術(shù)問題。 通過對國內(nèi)外退休年齡概況及變動(dòng)趨勢分析可知：我國退休年齡的調(diào)整明顯落后于社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的需要，提高退休年齡是人口老齡化背景下世界各國的共同選擇，代表著改革的必然趨勢，同時(shí)，，縮小男女退休年齡差距，直至實(shí)現(xiàn)男女同齡退休亦是實(shí)現(xiàn)社會(huì)進(jìn)步的必然要求。 為定量研究退休年齡調(diào)整的必要性及方式，本文選取了老齡化最為嚴(yán)重的上海為例，在運(yùn)用調(diào)整后的宋健人口預(yù)測模型得出2009-2050年上海市分性別分年齡人口數(shù)的基礎(chǔ)上，分析得出提高退休年齡是保證勞動(dòng)力供應(yīng)、保持養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)基金社會(huì)統(tǒng)籌部分良性運(yùn)行的必然選擇；此外，針對養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)的個(gè)人賬戶部分建立測算模型，測算得出不同退休年齡條件下個(gè)人賬戶養(yǎng)老金工資替代率，經(jīng)比較發(fā)現(xiàn)延長退休年齡能顯著提高個(gè)人賬戶工資替代率、促進(jìn)老年人生活質(zhì)量的提高。 考慮到勞動(dòng)者的態(tài)度對退休年齡調(diào)整成功與否有著重要影響，為了解勞動(dòng)者的真實(shí)態(tài)度與想法，在上海市范圍內(nèi)采取抽樣方式調(diào)查了分布在17個(gè)區(qū)的勞動(dòng)者，獲得一系列相關(guān)結(jié)論。 最后，在定量研究與定性分析的基礎(chǔ)上，綜合考慮多方面的因素，建議按照統(tǒng)籌兼顧、循序漸進(jìn)和男女同齡退休三原則對退休年齡政策加以調(diào)整，以2050年男女統(tǒng)一65歲退休為目標(biāo)，結(jié)合對未來人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)的預(yù)測，選擇合適時(shí)機(jī)，采取分群體、分步驟方式逐步達(dá)到設(shè)計(jì)目標(biāo)。與此同時(shí)，輔以規(guī)范提前退休、實(shí)施彈性退休制度、大力促進(jìn)就業(yè)、政府積極引導(dǎo)理論探討四項(xiàng)措施確保退休年齡調(diào)整順利推行。
[Abstract]:With the rapid increase of life expectancy and the increasingly severe aging of the population in our country, the maintenance of the retirement age leads to the continuous prolongation of the workers' living time after retirement, and a large number of retired workers are re-employed. Then lead to the pension fund income and expenditure gap is widening day by day. Because of the profound influence of the retirement age regulations on the balance of labor supply and demand and the sound operation of the pension insurance fund, how to make a proper adjustment of the retirement age in a planned way on the basis of scientific prediction, It has become an important practical and academic issue. By analyzing the general situation and changing trend of retirement age at home and abroad, we can see that the adjustment of retirement age in China lags behind the needs of social and economic development obviously. Raising retirement age is the common choice of countries in the world under the background of aging population. It represents the inevitable trend of reform, at the same time, narrowing the gap between male and female retirement age, until the realization of male and female retirement of the same age is also the inevitable requirement of social progress. In order to quantitatively study the necessity and method of the adjustment of retirement age, this paper selects Shanghai, which is the most aging city, as an example, on the basis of applying the adjusted population forecast model of Song Jian to arrive at the sex-age population of Shanghai in 2009-2050. It is concluded that raising the retirement age is the inevitable choice to ensure the supply of labor force and maintain the social balance of pension insurance fund. In addition, according to the personal account part of the old-age insurance, a calculation model is established to calculate the replacement rate of the pension wage of the individual account under different retirement age, and it is found by comparison that prolonging the retirement age can significantly improve the replacement rate of the individual account wage. To improve the quality of life of the elderly. Considering that the attitudes of workers have an important impact on the success of the adjustment of the retirement age, and in order to understand the true attitudes and ideas of workers, a sample survey was conducted in 17 districts in Shanghai, A series of relevant conclusions were obtained. Finally, on the basis of quantitative research and qualitative analysis, it is suggested that the policy of retirement age should be adjusted in accordance with the three principles of overall consideration, gradual progress and retirement of the same age for men and women. With the goal of male and female retirement of 65 years old in 2050, combined with the forecast of the change of population age structure in the future, this paper selects the right time, adopts the method of subgroup, and step by step to achieve the design goal step by step. At the same time, the government actively guided the theory to discuss four measures to ensure the smooth implementation of the adjustment of retirement age by standardizing early retirement, implementing the flexible retirement system, and vigorously promoting employment.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：上海工程技術(shù)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2010
【分類號】：C913.7;C924.24

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