【摘要】：中國(guó)的區(qū)域差異問題一直是國(guó)內(nèi)外學(xué)者關(guān)注的熱點(diǎn)問題之一。在區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)中,地區(qū)發(fā)展的均衡和差異表征指標(biāo)很多,而人口與經(jīng)濟(jì)的空間變化是區(qū)域差異研究的一個(gè)重要組成部分,也是反映區(qū)域差異的兩大主要指標(biāo)。在統(tǒng)一市場(chǎng)信息對(duì)等的條件下,區(qū)域協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展的結(jié)果應(yīng)當(dāng)是經(jīng)濟(jì)與人口分布在空間上趨于一致,而經(jīng)濟(jì)與人口分布的分離程度則體現(xiàn)了區(qū)域發(fā)展的非均衡性。近年來,隨著國(guó)家西部大開發(fā)戰(zhàn)略的實(shí)施,地處我國(guó)西北干旱區(qū)的塔里木河流域經(jīng)濟(jì)差異問題成為學(xué)術(shù)界和決策部門關(guān)注的熱點(diǎn)。塔里木河流域地域特色鮮明,人口構(gòu)成特殊,生態(tài)環(huán)境極其脆弱。人口與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展協(xié)調(diào)與否,關(guān)系到此區(qū)域的社會(huì)穩(wěn)定與可持續(xù)發(fā)展。本文采用區(qū)域重心模型與地理集中度等方法,對(duì)塔里木河流域過去30年的人口和經(jīng)濟(jì)重心的時(shí)空演化過程及其空間耦合特征進(jìn)行了分析,旨在揭示該區(qū)人口、經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展特點(diǎn)及規(guī)律,產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)變對(duì)生態(tài)環(huán)境造成的影響以及區(qū)域人口分布及區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)的協(xié)調(diào)程度。 主要結(jié)論如下： (1)在過去30年間(1980-2009年),塔里木河流域的GDP、耕地面積和三大產(chǎn)業(yè)重心均表現(xiàn)出由西向東方向遷移的趨勢(shì),而人口重心則由東向西遷移。人口重心與GDP、第二產(chǎn)業(yè)、第三產(chǎn)業(yè)在經(jīng)度方向與緯度方向上都表現(xiàn)為負(fù)相關(guān)。在經(jīng)度方向上,人口與第一產(chǎn)業(yè)為正相關(guān),而人口與耕地面積在經(jīng)度與緯度上均通過了顯著性檢驗(yàn),表現(xiàn)出較強(qiáng)的相關(guān)性。 (2)過去的30年,人口分布與GDP、第一產(chǎn)業(yè)、第二產(chǎn)業(yè)、第三產(chǎn)業(yè)、耕地面積的偏離程度顯著增強(qiáng),表明人口分布與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展不均衡性加劇。第一產(chǎn)業(yè)重心相對(duì)人口重心偏移距離變化較為復(fù)雜,但二者仍存在較大的不均衡性；耕地面積與人口分布的不均衡性日益變大。表明該區(qū)域的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展與人口分布整體協(xié)調(diào)性較差。 (3)研究區(qū)人口與經(jīng)濟(jì)重心在大的趨勢(shì)上存在耦合關(guān)系；人口和經(jīng)濟(jì)地理集中度分別呈現(xiàn)西高東低與北高南低,均圍繞經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)中心城市聚集；人口主要聚集在喀什地區(qū),經(jīng)濟(jì)則集聚在巴州地區(qū),交通區(qū)位條件對(duì)人口和經(jīng)濟(jì)的集聚效應(yīng)明顯；根據(jù)耦合指數(shù),塔里木河流域可劃分為經(jīng)濟(jì)極化型、經(jīng)濟(jì)超前型、協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展型、經(jīng)濟(jì)滯后型和經(jīng)濟(jì)落后型五類區(qū)域。
[Abstract]:Regional differences in China have always been one of the hot issues concerned by scholars at home and abroad. In regional economics, there are many indicators of regional development balance and difference, and the spatial change of population and economy is an important part of regional difference research, and it is also the two main indicators to reflect regional difference. Under the condition of uniform market information equivalence, the result of regional coordinated development should be that the distribution of economy and population tends to be consistent in space, while the degree of separation of economic and population distribution reflects the disequilibrium of regional development. In recent years, with the implementation of the western development strategy, the Tarim River Basin, which is located in the northwest arid region of China, has become a hot topic in academic circles and policy-making departments. The Tarim River Basin has distinctive regional characteristics, special population composition and extremely fragile ecological environment. The coordination of population and economic development is related to the social stability and sustainable development of this region. In this paper, the spatial and temporal evolution and spatial coupling characteristics of population and economic gravity center in Tarim River Basin over the past 30 years are analyzed by means of regional barycenter model and geographical concentration degree, in order to reveal the population in this area. The characteristics and laws of economic development, the influence of industrial structure transformation on ecological environment, the regional population distribution and the coordination degree of regional economy. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) in the past 30 years (1980-2009), the GDP, cultivated land area and the three major industrial centers of gravity in the Tarim River Basin have shown a trend of moving from west to east, while the population center of gravity moved from east to west. The population center of gravity is negatively correlated with the secondary industry of GDP, and the third industry in longitude and latitude. In longitude direction, population is positively correlated with primary industry, and population and cultivated land area have passed significant test in longitude and latitude. (2) in the past 30 years, population distribution and GDP, primary industry have been closely related. The deviation degree of secondary industry, tertiary industry and cultivated land area is significantly increased, which indicates that the imbalance between population distribution and economic development is becoming more and more serious. The shift distance between the center of gravity of primary industry and population center of gravity is more complex, but there is still a large imbalance between them, and the imbalance between cultivated land area and population distribution is increasing. The results show that the overall coordination between economic development and population distribution in this region is poor. (3) the population and economic center of gravity in the study area are coupled on the large trend, the population and economic geographical concentration degree show the west high east low and the north high south low, respectively. The population is mainly concentrated in Kashi area, while the economy is concentrated in Bazhou area. The agglomeration effect of traffic location on population and economy is obvious; according to the coupling index, The Tarim River Basin can be divided into five types: economic polarization type, economic advance type, coordinated development type, economic lag type and economic backwardness type.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：新疆農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：C922

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