【摘要】：中國經(jīng)濟(jì)在過去的30多年里飛速發(fā)展,且經(jīng)濟(jì)快速增長與人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)變同步。這種同步使得學(xué)者注意到“人口紅利”現(xiàn)象,即在人口轉(zhuǎn)變過程的某一特定階段,勞動年齡人口比例的增加有利于人均產(chǎn)出水平的增長。中國經(jīng)濟(jì)在經(jīng)歷數(shù)十年高速增長后,如今正面臨經(jīng)濟(jì)增長減速的困境,而中國的人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)也迎來了拐點。因此,研究經(jīng)濟(jì)增長和人口紅利之間的關(guān)系,有利于更好地認(rèn)識中國人口與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長之間的關(guān)系,有利于適時調(diào)整政策以促進(jìn)中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長。本文立足于人口與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的關(guān)系,分析人口紅利對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制,并利用截面加權(quán)最小二乘法對1990-2010年省際面板數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行回歸分析,用勞動年齡人口系數(shù)作為人口紅利的衡量指標(biāo)來分析其對中國各省份經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的貢獻(xiàn)。實證分析結(jié)果表明：勞動年齡人口系數(shù)的上升對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長有著積極作用,并且勞動年齡人口系數(shù)的增長能夠解釋1990-2010年間一部分的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長。人口紅利對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長貢獻(xiàn)最大的地區(qū)為新疆,達(dá)到28.11%,其余省份的人口紅利貢獻(xiàn)都在15%以上。由于人口紅利只是社會經(jīng)濟(jì)增長過程中一個難得的機(jī)遇,這種由人口轉(zhuǎn)變所帶來的對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的有利條件終將消失,隨之而來的是老年人口系數(shù)的不斷上升。而目前中國的勞動年齡人口系數(shù)已經(jīng)開始下降,勞動年齡人口的絕對數(shù)量也開始下降,采取相應(yīng)措施來減少人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)變化對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的負(fù)面效應(yīng)是非常必要的。
[Abstract]:China's economy has grown rapidly in the past 30 years, and its rapid growth has kept pace with the age structure of the population. This kind of synchronization makes scholars pay attention to the phenomenon of "demographic dividend", that is, in a certain stage of population transition, the increase of the ratio of working-age population is beneficial to the increase of per capita output level. China's economy is facing a slowdown after decades of rapid growth, and the age structure of its population has reached an inflection point. Therefore, the study of the relationship between economic growth and population dividend is conducive to better understanding of the relationship between population and economic growth in China and the timely adjustment of policies to promote China's economic growth. Based on the relationship between population and economic growth, this paper analyzes the transmission mechanism of demographic dividend to economic growth, and uses cross-section weighted least square method to analyze the interprovincial panel data from 1990 to 2010. This paper uses the working age population coefficient as a measure of demographic dividend to analyze its contribution to the economic growth of various provinces in China. The empirical results show that the increase of the working-age population coefficient has a positive effect on the economic growth, and the increase of the working-age population coefficient can explain part of the economic growth from 1990 to 2010. Xinjiang is the region with the biggest contribution to economic growth, with the other provinces contributing more than 15 percent. Because the population dividend is only a rare opportunity in the process of social and economic growth, the favorable conditions brought by the population transformation to the economic growth will disappear, and then the elderly population coefficient will continue to rise. At present, the coefficient of working-age population in China has begun to decline, and the absolute number of working-age population has also begun to decline. It is necessary to take corresponding measures to reduce the negative effects of the change of population age structure on economic growth.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：C92-05

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前1條

1 劉元春;孫立;;“人口紅利說”:四大誤區(qū)[J];人口研究;2009年01期

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本文編號：2259229