遼寧省人口遷移與經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的定量研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-09-18 17:04
【摘要】：隨著振興東北老工業(yè)基地、發(fā)展遼寧沿海經(jīng)濟帶、建設(shè)沈陽經(jīng)濟區(qū)等重大戰(zhàn)略的實施,遼寧省近年來的經(jīng)濟社會發(fā)展呈現(xiàn)出前所未有的強勁勢頭。與此同時,伴隨經(jīng)濟的快速發(fā)展,對外開放的日益擴大,人口遷移數(shù)量也在逐年遞增,并呈現(xiàn)出外向化和多元化的新特點、新趨勢,對經(jīng)濟社會的發(fā)展產(chǎn)生了深刻的影響。為了促進遼寧省經(jīng)濟社會協(xié)調(diào)健康發(fā)展,有必要進一步考察遼寧省人口遷移的特點,深入了解人口遷移與經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的內(nèi)在邏輯關(guān)系和相互作用機理。針對發(fā)展中存在的矛盾和問題制定出更加切實可行的措施,科學(xué)合理地引導(dǎo)人口遷移。這是本文研究的背景和出發(fā)點。 本文以遼寧省為例,采用定性與定量相結(jié)合的手段,系統(tǒng)地研究人口遷移與經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的相互關(guān)系。運用數(shù)據(jù)分析、統(tǒng)計分析等定量工具考察遼寧省人口遷移的基本特征；運用面板數(shù)據(jù)模型對人口遷移與經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的相互作用效果進行動態(tài)量化分析；利用聚類分析探析了人口遷移的地區(qū)差異；在實證研究結(jié)果的基礎(chǔ)上,對人口遷移和經(jīng)濟發(fā)展中存在的問題進行分析并提出相應(yīng)的對策建議。 本文的研究主要有下列發(fā)現(xiàn)：第一,遼寧省人口遷移的規(guī)模在不斷擴大,遷移人口主要活躍在沈陽、大連、鞍山這三個城市,遷移人口中絕大部分為勞動適齡人口,省內(nèi)遷移人口女性多于男性,受教育程度普遍較高,對各種職業(yè)的選擇相對均衡,遷移的原因以社會型和搬遷性為主,省外遷移人口男性多于女性,受教育程度呈現(xiàn)“兩頭高,中間低”的特點,從事體力型職業(yè)的比重很大,遷移的原因主要以勞動型和社會型為主。第二,經(jīng)濟因素對省外人口遷入的作用顯著,對省內(nèi)人口遷入的影響不明顯；反之,省外人口遷入積極地促進了經(jīng)濟發(fā)展,而省內(nèi)人口遷入?yún)s在某種程度上抑制了經(jīng)濟的進步。經(jīng)濟因素對省外人口遷入和省內(nèi)人口遷入的影響程度之所以存在差異,本文認為是由于省外和省內(nèi)的遷移原因不同造成的。而省外遷入和省內(nèi)遷入對經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的作用相反可能與遷入人口的年齡結(jié)構(gòu)、性別結(jié)構(gòu)以及職業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)有關(guān)。第三,人口遷移與經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的互動關(guān)系存在比較明顯的地區(qū)差異：經(jīng)濟發(fā)達的地區(qū),同時也是省際人口遷入的強勢吸引中心,省際人口遷入與經(jīng)濟發(fā)展之間的正影響很強；經(jīng)濟發(fā)展一般的地區(qū),人口遷移活動較弱,人口遷移與經(jīng)濟發(fā)展之間的作用不顯著；經(jīng)濟相對落后的地區(qū),省內(nèi)人口遷移比省際人口遷移活躍,但省內(nèi)人口遷入與經(jīng)濟發(fā)展之間負相關(guān)。 基于上述結(jié)論,本文提出了如下的建議：第一,加快沿海經(jīng)濟帶和沈陽經(jīng)濟區(qū)的建設(shè),推進城市群的一體化發(fā)展,發(fā)揮中心城市的輻射帶動作用,加強中心城市對人口遷入的吸引力；第二,深化戶籍制度、就業(yè)制度以及社會保障制度的改革,建立市場化的人口遷移流動機制和統(tǒng)一開放、公平競爭的勞動力市場,保障遷移人口的基本權(quán)益；第三,重視經(jīng)濟落后地區(qū)的發(fā)展,實行靈活的用人與收入分配機制,優(yōu)化遷移人口的服務(wù)功能；第四,建立科學(xué)的遷移人口統(tǒng)計調(diào)查監(jiān)測體系,完善人口信息管理,保證人口統(tǒng)計信息統(tǒng)一、準(zhǔn)確、完整,以便為科學(xué)決策提供有力支撐。 本文的創(chuàng)新點有：第一,首次對遼寧省內(nèi)各地級市的人口遷移與經(jīng)濟發(fā)展問題進行比較深入的定量研究,不僅分析了省際人口遷移,還分析了省內(nèi)人口遷移；第二,在定性分析的基礎(chǔ)上,運用數(shù)據(jù)分析、面板數(shù)據(jù)模型、聚類分析等多種定量分析技術(shù),使得問題的研究和結(jié)論更加科學(xué)化和縝密化。 本文的不足之處有：第一,因?qū)嵶C部分的人口遷移數(shù)據(jù)有些采用的是戶籍人口遷移數(shù)據(jù),所以相應(yīng)的實證結(jié)果只能說明戶籍人口遷移與經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的關(guān)系。第二,由于數(shù)據(jù)不足,本文無法對人口遷移和經(jīng)濟發(fā)展是否存在異時累積效應(yīng)以及是否存在結(jié)構(gòu)性差異進行研究。
[Abstract]:With the implementation of major strategies such as revitalizing the old industrial base in Northeast China, developing the coastal economic belt of Liaoning Province, and building the Shenyang Economic Zone, the economic and social development of Liaoning Province has shown an unprecedented strong momentum in recent years. At the same time, with the rapid development of economy, the opening up has been expanding day by day, and the number of population migration has been increasing year by year, and showing an unprecedented trend. In order to promote the coordinated and healthy development of economy and society in Liaoning Province, it is necessary to further investigate the characteristics of population migration in Liaoning Province, and to deeply understand the internal logical relationship and interaction mechanism between population migration and economic development. It is the background and starting point of this paper to formulate more feasible measures to guide population migration scientifically and rationally.
Taking Liaoning Province as an example, this paper systematically studies the relationship between population migration and economic development by means of combining qualitative and quantitative methods. Quantitative analysis of state; cluster analysis is used to explore the regional differences of population migration; on the basis of empirical research results, the problems existing in population migration and economic development are analyzed and corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward.
The main findings of this study are as follows: First, the scale of population migration in Liaoning Province is expanding. The migrants are mainly active in Shenyang, Dalian and Anshan. Most of the migrants are of working age. There are more females than males in Liaoning Province, and their educational level is generally higher, and their choices for various occupations are relatively high. Equilibrium, the main reasons for migration are social type and relocation. The migrant population outside the province has more males than females, and the educational level is "high at both ends, low in the middle". The proportion of physical occupations is very large. The main reasons for migration are labor type and social type. Second, economic factors play a significant role in the migration of the population outside the province. On the contrary, the population migration outside the province actively promotes economic development, while the population migration inside the province restrains economic progress to a certain extent. The effect of migration outside the province and within the province on economic development may be related to the age structure, gender structure and occupational structure of the immigrant population. Third, there are obvious regional differences in the interaction between migration and economic development: economically developed areas, but also the strong inter-provincial migration. Attraction center, inter-provincial population migration and economic development between the strong positive impact; economic development in general areas, population migration activities are weak, the role between population migration and economic development is not significant; relatively backward areas, inter-provincial population migration is more active than inter-provincial population migration, but the inter-provincial population migration and economic development between the negative. Relevant.
Based on the above conclusions, this paper puts forward the following suggestions: first, speed up the construction of coastal economic zone and Shenyang economic zone, promote the integrated development of urban agglomeration, give full play to the radiating role of central cities, and strengthen the attraction of central cities to population migration; second, deepen the reform of household registration system, employment system and social security system. Third, pay attention to the development of economically backward areas, implement flexible employment and income distribution mechanism, and optimize the service function of migrant population; fourth, establish a scientific survey and supervision of migrant population. The system of population measurement should be improved to ensure the unification, accuracy and integrity of population statistical information so as to provide strong support for scientific decision-making.
The innovations of this paper are as follows: firstly, it is the first time to conduct a more in-depth quantitative study on the population migration and economic development of cities at all levels in Liaoning Province, not only analyzes the inter-provincial population migration, but also analyzes the inter-provincial population migration; secondly, on the basis of qualitative analysis, it uses data analysis, panel data model, cluster analysis and other determinations. Quantitative analysis technology makes the research and conclusion of the problem more scientific and meticulous.
The shortcomings of this paper are as follows: firstly, because some of the empirical data of population migration use household registration migration data, the corresponding empirical results can only explain the relationship between household registration migration and economic development. Whether there are structural differences are studied.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：東北財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2010
【分類號】：C924.2;F127
本文編號：2248558
[Abstract]:With the implementation of major strategies such as revitalizing the old industrial base in Northeast China, developing the coastal economic belt of Liaoning Province, and building the Shenyang Economic Zone, the economic and social development of Liaoning Province has shown an unprecedented strong momentum in recent years. At the same time, with the rapid development of economy, the opening up has been expanding day by day, and the number of population migration has been increasing year by year, and showing an unprecedented trend. In order to promote the coordinated and healthy development of economy and society in Liaoning Province, it is necessary to further investigate the characteristics of population migration in Liaoning Province, and to deeply understand the internal logical relationship and interaction mechanism between population migration and economic development. It is the background and starting point of this paper to formulate more feasible measures to guide population migration scientifically and rationally.
Taking Liaoning Province as an example, this paper systematically studies the relationship between population migration and economic development by means of combining qualitative and quantitative methods. Quantitative analysis of state; cluster analysis is used to explore the regional differences of population migration; on the basis of empirical research results, the problems existing in population migration and economic development are analyzed and corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward.
The main findings of this study are as follows: First, the scale of population migration in Liaoning Province is expanding. The migrants are mainly active in Shenyang, Dalian and Anshan. Most of the migrants are of working age. There are more females than males in Liaoning Province, and their educational level is generally higher, and their choices for various occupations are relatively high. Equilibrium, the main reasons for migration are social type and relocation. The migrant population outside the province has more males than females, and the educational level is "high at both ends, low in the middle". The proportion of physical occupations is very large. The main reasons for migration are labor type and social type. Second, economic factors play a significant role in the migration of the population outside the province. On the contrary, the population migration outside the province actively promotes economic development, while the population migration inside the province restrains economic progress to a certain extent. The effect of migration outside the province and within the province on economic development may be related to the age structure, gender structure and occupational structure of the immigrant population. Third, there are obvious regional differences in the interaction between migration and economic development: economically developed areas, but also the strong inter-provincial migration. Attraction center, inter-provincial population migration and economic development between the strong positive impact; economic development in general areas, population migration activities are weak, the role between population migration and economic development is not significant; relatively backward areas, inter-provincial population migration is more active than inter-provincial population migration, but the inter-provincial population migration and economic development between the negative. Relevant.
Based on the above conclusions, this paper puts forward the following suggestions: first, speed up the construction of coastal economic zone and Shenyang economic zone, promote the integrated development of urban agglomeration, give full play to the radiating role of central cities, and strengthen the attraction of central cities to population migration; second, deepen the reform of household registration system, employment system and social security system. Third, pay attention to the development of economically backward areas, implement flexible employment and income distribution mechanism, and optimize the service function of migrant population; fourth, establish a scientific survey and supervision of migrant population. The system of population measurement should be improved to ensure the unification, accuracy and integrity of population statistical information so as to provide strong support for scientific decision-making.
The innovations of this paper are as follows: firstly, it is the first time to conduct a more in-depth quantitative study on the population migration and economic development of cities at all levels in Liaoning Province, not only analyzes the inter-provincial population migration, but also analyzes the inter-provincial population migration; secondly, on the basis of qualitative analysis, it uses data analysis, panel data model, cluster analysis and other determinations. Quantitative analysis technology makes the research and conclusion of the problem more scientific and meticulous.
The shortcomings of this paper are as follows: firstly, because some of the empirical data of population migration use household registration migration data, the corresponding empirical results can only explain the relationship between household registration migration and economic development. Whether there are structural differences are studied.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：東北財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2010
【分類號】：C924.2;F127
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