【摘要】：文章以2010年第六次人口普查數(shù)據(jù)為基礎(chǔ),采用多區(qū)域人口預(yù)測(cè)模型,利用PADIS軟件對(duì)未來(lái)40年城鎮(zhèn)和農(nóng)村勞動(dòng)力資源總量、結(jié)構(gòu)及未來(lái)發(fā)展趨勢(shì)進(jìn)行對(duì)比分析,研究發(fā)現(xiàn),中國(guó)勞動(dòng)年齡人口規(guī)模在2014年出現(xiàn)高峰,到2025年開(kāi)始呈快速下降趨勢(shì)。受中國(guó)二元經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)影響,勞動(dòng)年齡人口結(jié)構(gòu)也呈現(xiàn)出城鄉(xiāng)分化的差異性特征。未來(lái)城鎮(zhèn)勞動(dòng)力資源總量總體呈增加趨勢(shì),但會(huì)經(jīng)歷先增后減的過(guò)程,農(nóng)村勞動(dòng)力資源呈逐年下降。從結(jié)構(gòu)觀察,城鄉(xiāng)勞動(dòng)年齡人口占總?cè)丝诘谋壤尸F(xiàn)不斷下降的趨勢(shì),各時(shí)期城鎮(zhèn)勞動(dòng)年齡人口占比都高于農(nóng)村。城鎮(zhèn)勞動(dòng)力老化趨勢(shì)明顯,農(nóng)村勞動(dòng)力則經(jīng)歷不斷老化再到相對(duì)合理的過(guò)程。
[Abstract]:Based on the data of the sixth census in 2010, this paper makes a comparative analysis of the total amount, structure and future development trend of labor resources in cities and towns and rural areas in the next 40 years by using the multi-region population prediction model and PADIS software. China's working-age population peaked in 2014 and began to decline rapidly by 2025. Under the influence of China's dual economic structure, the structure of working-age population also shows the difference between urban and rural areas. In the future, the total amount of urban labor resources will increase, but will go through the process of first increasing and then decreasing, and the rural labor resources will decrease year by year. The ratio of urban and rural working-age population to the total population is decreasing, and the proportion of urban working-age population is higher than that of rural population in every period. The aging trend of urban labor force is obvious, while the rural labor force is going through a relatively reasonable process.
【作者單位】： 首都經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)勞動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院;貴州民族大學(xué)管理學(xué)院;
【基金】：教育部人文社會(huì)科學(xué)重點(diǎn)研究基地重大項(xiàng)目“中國(guó)人口城鄉(xiāng)結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)與環(huán)境可持續(xù)發(fā)展”(10JJD840005) 北京市屬高等學(xué)校創(chuàng)新團(tuán)隊(duì)建設(shè)與教師職業(yè)發(fā)展計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目(IDHT20130523) 首都經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)科研創(chuàng)新項(xiàng)目資助
【分類號(hào)】：F249.2;C924.24

【相似文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前5條

1 張曼蘋(píng);以農(nóng)村人口為基點(diǎn)調(diào)整農(nóng)村產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)[J];中國(guó)人口科學(xué);1992年06期

2 王希文;史賢華;;農(nóng)村人口變遷的形式、特征及影響[J];中國(guó)國(guó)情國(guó)力;2009年06期

3 靳玉潔;張蕾;;淺析近年來(lái)河北省人口流動(dòng)的特征和原因[J];中國(guó)商界(下半月);2008年05期

4 雷歡歡;;人口老齡化時(shí)代的農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展對(duì)策[J];中國(guó)商界(上半月);2010年12期

5 周玉新,邱益三;南京市農(nóng)村勞動(dòng)力資源優(yōu)化利用的研究[J];南京農(nóng)專學(xué)報(bào);1997年04期

，

本文編號(hào)：2238496