【摘要】：東北地區(qū)一直以來都是我國非常重要的重工業(yè)基地,在我國的經濟建設中處于舉足輕重的地位,也是我國人口主要的遷入地。改革開放之后,隨著重工業(yè)的逐年落寞和東南沿海地區(qū)的迅速崛起,大批人口開始遷出東北,流入經濟迅速發(fā)展的其他省市。人口的流失進一步導致經濟的衰退。形成惡性循環(huán)。人口的流出是多方面原因造成的,為深入的剖析東北地區(qū)人口遷移的機制。本文運用經濟學理論構建了擴展的托達羅模型,并在此基礎之上,運用五普、六普及統(tǒng)計年鑒上的數(shù)據對相關影響因子做了實證研究。其結果很好地解釋了東北地區(qū)人口流失的各方面原因,闡明了東北地區(qū)人口遷移的影響機理。在此基礎之上,提出了相應的政策建議。本文共分為六章,第一章為緒論,主要介紹了本文的研究背景、意義、框架及主要內容,另外還有主要的創(chuàng)新點和不足之處。第二章是文獻綜述,介紹了人口遷移方面的國內外的研究成果,國外方面介紹了推拉理論、劉易斯二元經濟結構模型、費景漢-拉尼斯模型和托達羅模型4個理論模型。國內方面分別從人口流出的規(guī)模方向、影響因素和人口遷移的經濟效應三個角度介紹了一些研究成果。第三章介紹了東北地區(qū)的人口遷移的歷史演進,并在時間和空間維度上進行了橫向和縱向比較。第四章在原有的托達羅模型上建立了擴展的托達羅模型,并在此基礎上對東北地區(qū)人口遷移問題進行了因素分析。第五章在全國范圍內對影響人口流入的的各種因素進行了相關分析、因子分析和多元回歸分析;進一步計算了各省市對人口吸引力的綜合因子得分并進行了排名。第六章為結論和政策建議,為東北地區(qū)的人口遷出問題提供了一系列的政策建議。
[Abstract]:Northeast China has always been a very important heavy industrial base in our country, in the economic construction of our country in a pivotal position, but also the main migration of our population. After the reform and opening up, with the desolation of heavy industry and the rapid rise of the southeast coastal areas, a large number of people began to move out of the Northeast, flowing into other provinces and cities with rapid economic development. The loss of population further led to a recession. Form a vicious circle. The outflow of population is caused by many reasons, in order to deeply analyze the mechanism of population migration in Northeast China. In this paper, the extended Todaro model is constructed by using economic theory, and on the basis of this, the author makes an empirical study on the relevant influence factors by using the data from the five popular and six popular statistical yearbooks. The results show that the causes of population loss in Northeast China are well explained, and the influence mechanism of population migration in Northeast China is clarified. On this basis, the corresponding policy recommendations are put forward. This paper is divided into six chapters, the first chapter is the introduction, mainly introduces the research background, significance, framework and main content, in addition, there are main innovation points and shortcomings. The second chapter is a literature review, introducing the research results of population migration at home and abroad, including push-pull theory, Lewis dual economic structure model, Fjinghan-Lanis model and Todaro model. Some research results are introduced from three aspects: the direction of population outflow, the influencing factors and the economic effect of population migration. The third chapter introduces the historical evolution of population migration in Northeast China, and makes a horizontal and vertical comparison between time and space. Chapter four establishes the extended Todaro model based on the original Todaro model and analyzes the factors of population migration in Northeast China. In the fifth chapter, the factors influencing the inflow of population are analyzed, factor analysis and multivariate regression analysis, and the comprehensive factor scores of the provinces and cities to the population attraction are calculated and ranked in the fifth chapter. The sixth chapter provides a series of policy suggestions for the migration of population in Northeast China.
【學位授予單位】：東北財經大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：C924.2

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