【摘要】：近年來，我國能源消費(fèi)的增長速度非�？�，尤其是像煤、石油、天然氣等這些不可再生資源，人類對其開發(fā)利用后，在現(xiàn)階段不可能再生，對于這些不可再生能源來說，使用就意味著減少，隨著人口數(shù)量的增加，及對不可再生能源的開發(fā)和利用，最終會造成能源的相對減少，而不能保持原有儲量或再生。不可再生能源數(shù)量的減少給人們造成日益嚴(yán)重的能源消費(fèi)壓力，迫使中國不得不采取各種政策以加強(qiáng)能源的使用效率和降低能源的使用量。現(xiàn)在人類也正在面臨著能源匱乏的難題，能源消費(fèi)與經(jīng)濟(jì)可持續(xù)發(fā)展是我們當(dāng)前所面對的挑戰(zhàn)，是備受關(guān)注的重要問題。中國是世界上人口最多的大國，從而決定了我國也將是未來能源消費(fèi)的大戶，我國的能源消費(fèi)尚未擺脫傳統(tǒng)工業(yè)不可持續(xù)的模式�；仡櫘a(chǎn)業(yè)革命200多年以來發(fā)達(dá)國家實(shí)現(xiàn)工業(yè)化的路徑，我們不難發(fā)現(xiàn)，他們走過的是一條傳統(tǒng)工業(yè)化的道路。傳統(tǒng)工業(yè)化道路即經(jīng)濟(jì)增長量以高投入、能源高消耗、環(huán)境嚴(yán)重破壞為代價(jià)的，所以在占全球人數(shù)不到15%的英國、德國、美國等40多個(gè)國家先后分別完成工業(yè)化以后，世界儲備能源也遭到了嚴(yán)重的消耗和浪費(fèi)。據(jù)調(diào)查統(tǒng)計(jì)，這些發(fā)達(dá)國家在工業(yè)化進(jìn)程中消耗了全球已探明能源的70%。而中國作為發(fā)展中國家，中國正處在社會主義建設(shè)階段，面對有限的能源，中國在努力探索著一條合理利用能源的中國特色社會主義工業(yè)化道路。從歷史的角度來看，中國仍是一個(gè)以能源物質(zhì)消耗為主的國家，中國走的仍然是科技水平相對較低、勞動者素質(zhì)和管理因素對經(jīng)濟(jì)的貢獻(xiàn)率偏低的傳統(tǒng)工業(yè)化道路。在能源大量被消耗的同時(shí)，人口數(shù)量又在不斷增加，面對一定的土地、有限的資源以及人口不斷增加所造成的人類日益增長的各種需要，預(yù)測和評估人口增加的趨勢、能源需求的變動情況以及人口數(shù)量變動對能源需求的影響就顯得至關(guān)重要。 關(guān)于我國的工業(yè)化道路問題黨中央代表三次大會都作出了系統(tǒng)闡述。其中，2003年江澤民同志代表第十五屆中央委員會向十六大做出的報(bào)告指出：“實(shí)現(xiàn)工業(yè)化仍然是我國現(xiàn)代化進(jìn)程中所面臨的艱峻歷史性任務(wù)，我國全面建設(shè)小康社會的目標(biāo)是可持續(xù)發(fā)展能力不斷增強(qiáng)，，生態(tài)環(huán)境得到改善，資源利用率顯著提高，要達(dá)到這一目標(biāo)，就必須堅(jiān)持走出經(jīng)濟(jì)效益好、科技含量高、能源消耗少、環(huán)境污染程度低、充分發(fā)揮我國特有的人力資源優(yōu)勢新型的工業(yè)化道路。”2007年10月胡錦濤主席在中國共產(chǎn)黨第十七次人民代表大會上又指出：“要堅(jiān)持走中國特色新型工業(yè)化道路，堅(jiān)持由主要依靠增加物質(zhì)資源消耗向主要依靠科技進(jìn)步、勞動者素質(zhì)提高、管理創(chuàng)新轉(zhuǎn)變�！眱纱未髸济鞔_的強(qiáng)調(diào)了未來要走新型工業(yè)化道路。胡錦濤同志又在十八大報(bào)告中指出“推動能源生產(chǎn)，控制能源消費(fèi)總量，加強(qiáng)節(jié)能降耗，支持低碳節(jié)能產(chǎn)業(yè)和新能源、可再生能源發(fā)展，確保國家能源安全�！庇纱苏f明，中國高度重視不可再生能源的節(jié)約和使用。 本文在中國固有國情的基礎(chǔ)上，討論了我國總體能源和河北省能源現(xiàn)狀，通過以河北省為例，建立Logistic模型、數(shù)學(xué)模型，估計(jì)并預(yù)測出河北省的人口數(shù)量，然后建立河北省人口與能源總量之間關(guān)系的模型，對我省能源消耗前景做出預(yù)測，為河北省合理利用能源，提高能源的利用率，制定相關(guān)政策提供依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the growth rate of energy consumption in China is very fast, especially for the non-renewable resources such as coal, oil and natural gas, which can not be renewable at this stage after human development and utilization. For these non-renewable energy sources, the use means to reduce, with the increase of population, and the development and utilization of non-renewable energy resources. The reduction of the amount of non-renewable energy causes increasing pressure on people's energy consumption, forcing China to adopt various policies to improve energy efficiency and reduce energy use. Now mankind is also facing energy shortage. China is the most populous country in the world, which decides that China will also be a major energy consumer in the future. China's energy consumption has not shaken off the unsustainable mode of traditional industry. Review of Industrial Revolution 200 It is not difficult for us to find that the developed countries have gone through a traditional way of industrialization for many years. The traditional way of industrialization is that the economic growth is at the cost of high input, high energy consumption and serious environmental damage. According to the survey statistics, these developed countries consume 70% of the world's proven energy in the process of industrialization. As a developing country, China is in the stage of socialist construction, facing the limited energy, China is trying to explore a combination. From a historical point of view, China is still a country with energy and material consumption as the main source of industrialization. China is still taking the traditional industrialization road with relatively low scientific and technological level, low contribution rate of laborers'quality and management factors to the economy. In the face of certain land, limited resources and increasing population, it is very important to forecast and assess the trend of population growth, the change of energy demand and the impact of population change on energy demand.
Three congresses of the CPC Central Committee on China's road to industrialization have made a systematic exposition. In 2003, Comrade Jiang Zemin, on behalf of the 15th Central Committee, made a report to the 16th National Congress, pointed out that "realizing industrialization is still a arduous and historic task in the process of China's modernization, and building a well-off society in an all-round way in China." The goal of the conference is to continuously enhance the capacity of sustainable development, improve the ecological environment and improve the utilization rate of resources. To achieve this goal, we must persist in stepping out of the new industrialization road with good economic benefits, high scientific and technological content, low energy consumption and low environmental pollution, and give full play to the unique advantages of human resources in China. " At the 17th People's Congress of the Communist Party of China, President Hu Jintao pointed out that "we should adhere to the road of new industrialization with Chinese characteristics, from increasing the consumption of material resources to relying mainly on scientific and technological progress, improving the quality of laborers and innovating management." Comrade Hu Jintao also pointed out in the report of the 18th National Congress that China attaches great importance to the conservation and use of non-renewable energy.
On the basis of China's inherent national conditions, this paper discusses the overall energy and energy situation of Hebei Province in China. Taking Hebei Province as an example, the paper establishes a Logistic model, a mathematical model, estimates and predicts the population of Hebei Province, and then establishes a model of the relationship between population and total energy in Hebei Province to predict the energy consumption prospects of Hebei Province. It will provide a basis for Hebei to make rational use of energy and improve the utilization rate of energy and formulate relevant policies.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：河北經(jīng)貿(mào)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F224;F426.2;C924.24

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 李永勝;人口預(yù)測中的模型選擇與參數(shù)認(rèn)定[J];財(cái)經(jīng)科學(xué);2004年02期

2 王藝霖;肖士恩;;中國工業(yè)化中期的能源需求國際比較及其定量分析[J];當(dāng)代經(jīng)濟(jì)管理;2011年03期

3 易金超;;中國能源需求的模型選擇[J];消費(fèi)導(dǎo)刊;2007年08期

4 布賴恩·威爾遜;面向21世紀(jì)的英國能源政策——加強(qiáng)能源領(lǐng)域的對話與合作[J];國際石油經(jīng)濟(jì);2001年12期

5 朱光遠(yuǎn);;能源需求預(yù)測模型探討[J];河南科學(xué);1991年02期

6 武英濤;王克強(qiáng);;上海市能源需求預(yù)測研究[J];上海經(jīng)濟(jì)研究;2011年01期

7 王向青;周德群;王群偉;;中國能源需求影響因素的主成分分析[J];價(jià)格月刊;2010年05期

8 王國志;徐慶;;河北省能源消費(fèi)與GDP的關(guān)系[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇;2007年21期

9 錢德雪;水資源規(guī)劃中人口預(yù)測的初步分析[J];浙江水利科技;2005年01期

10 柳彬德;張麗峰;;中國能源需求向量自回歸模型的建立與分析[J];技術(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)與管理研究;2009年02期

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前2條

1 張慶;多視角下的中國能源需求預(yù)測研究[D];中國石油大學(xué);2011年

2 白頡;中國能源消費(fèi)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長關(guān)系的區(qū)域差異性研究[D];中國石油大學(xué);2011年

本文編號：2217857