【摘要】：優(yōu)化人口布局，對于合理引導人口有序轉移，協(xié)調(diào)人口、資源、環(huán)境與社會之間的關系，促進區(qū)域可持續(xù)發(fā)展具有重要作用。論文以地理學、人口學的區(qū)域空間理論為理論基礎，參考了已有研究成果，以縣為統(tǒng)計單元，借助ArcGIS、GeoDA、Geograpically Weighted Regression、灰色建模系統(tǒng)（IV版）和SPSS等軟件，揭示了四川人口密度、人口比重、人口地理集中度、凈流動人口和人口城鎮(zhèn)化等靜態(tài)空間分布，利用洛倫茲曲線、集中化指數(shù)、人口分布重心和空間自相關分析方法，選取了1990、2000和2010年3個時間截面，研究了四川人口空間演化特征，通過定性分析與因子分析、灰色關聯(lián)分析、空間回歸分析、地理加權回歸分析等定量分析相結合的方式探討了人口空間演化的影響因素，經(jīng)過研究得出以下幾點結論： （1）全省縣域人口分布空間差異十分顯著，大致沿朝天區(qū)、江油市、安縣、都江堰市、大邑縣、雨城區(qū)、漢源縣、沐川縣和屏山縣一線及其以東為四川盆地人口稠密區(qū)，呈馬蹄形分布，以西人口數(shù)量少，密度低；人口密度從盆地核心區(qū)向北、西、南三面遞減，成德綿經(jīng)濟帶及各地級市市轄區(qū)人口密度較高。 （2）全省凈流動人口規(guī)模巨大，凈流出縣域數(shù)量和人口規(guī)模均遠大于凈流入縣域數(shù)量和人口規(guī)模，凈流出地區(qū)在全省廣泛分布，而凈流入地區(qū)則主要在成都、各地級市市轄區(qū)以及川西部分縣域。 （3）城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展水平總體上已進入中期階段，空間分布的絕對差異和相對差異均較大，成都平原和各地級市市轄區(qū)較高，，并沿幾條主要出川交通大動脈分布。 （4）三個年份的洛倫茲曲線偏離均衡線較大，集中化指數(shù)分別為0.4419、0.4280和0.4138，均有減小的趨勢，人口分布的空間結構呈均衡發(fā)展特征；人口重心均在幾何中心的東偏南，并自東偏北向西偏南移動，分別為30.281°N,104.982°E、30.283°N,104.931°E和30.267°N,104.829°E,共計向西移動直線距離14805.764ｍ。 （5）全局Moran's I指數(shù)分別為0.8384、0.8361和0.8260，表明人口分布存在很強的聚集性，但有微弱降低的趨勢；局部自相關分析表明人口分布總體結構較為穩(wěn)定，四川盆地是人口分布的核心區(qū)，川西山地高原地區(qū)為人口稀疏區(qū)；成都平原及臨近地區(qū)，川南的自貢、瀘州和川東北的南充、廣安市轄區(qū)是人口分布的熱點區(qū)域，川西山地高原地區(qū)是人口分布的冷點區(qū)域。 （6）地形、氣候、礦產(chǎn)、歷史基礎、經(jīng)濟發(fā)展水平和交通條件對人口分布產(chǎn)生重要影響；經(jīng)濟實力、社會消費和人才素質(zhì)、經(jīng)濟活動產(chǎn)業(yè)人口結構是影響人口分布的重要因素；各縣平均海拔、人口自然增長對人口分布起負向作用，而較高的人均GDP和社會消費品零售總額能有效促進人口聚集。 基于以上結論，有針對性地提出了相應的政策建議，并對未來進一步研究作出了展望。
[Abstract]:Optimizing population distribution plays an important role in guiding orderly population transfer, coordinating the relationship among population, resources, environment and society, and promoting regional sustainable development. Based on the regional spatial theory of geography and demography, and referring to the existing research results, the paper reveals the population density and population proportion of Sichuan with the help of ArcGIS,GeoDA,Geograpically Weighted Regression, grey modeling system (IV) and SPSS software. By using Lorentz curve, concentration index, center of gravity and spatial autocorrelation analysis method, three time sections of 1990 ~ 2000 and 2010 were selected, including population geographical concentration, net floating population and population urbanization, and so on, in which three time sections were selected, such as Lorentz curve, centralization index, center of gravity of population distribution and spatial autocorrelation analysis. The characteristics of population spatial evolution in Sichuan are studied. The influencing factors of population spatial evolution are discussed through the combination of qualitative analysis and factor analysis, grey correlation analysis, spatial regression analysis, geographical weighted regression analysis, etc. The following conclusions are drawn from the study: (1) the spatial difference of population distribution in counties of the province is very significant, roughly along Chaotian District, Jiangyou City, an County, Dujiangyan City, Dayi County, Yucheng District, Hanyuan County, The first line and east of Muchuan County and Pingshan County are densely populated areas of Sichuan Basin, with a horseshoe distribution, a small number of population to the west and a low density, and the population density decreases from the core area of the basin to the north, west and south. The density of population in Chengdemian economic belt and municipal districts at prefectural level is relatively high. (2) the scale of net floating population in the whole province is huge, the number and population scale of net outflow from county territory are much larger than that of net inflow into county territory and population scale. The net outflow areas are widely distributed in the province, while the net inflow areas are mainly in Chengdu, the prefecture-level municipal districts and some counties in western Sichuan. (3) the level of urbanization has generally entered the middle stage. The absolute and relative differences of spatial distribution are large, Chengdu Plain and municipal districts of each prefectural level are higher, and they are distributed along several main arteries of traffic out of Sichuan. (4) the Lorentz curve deviates from the equilibrium line in three years. The centralization index was 0.4280 and 0.4138, respectively. The spatial structure of population distribution showed the characteristic of balanced development, and the center of gravity of population was located in the center of geometry from east to south, and moved from east to north to west to south. It is 30.281 擄Nu 104.982 擄E = 30.283 擄N ~ + 104.931 擄E and 30.267 擄N ~ (1) 104.829 擄E, the total distance of straight line moving westward is 14805.764m. (5) the global Moran's I index is 0.83840.8361 and 0.8260respectively, which indicates that the population distribution has a strong agglomeration, but has a tendency of slight decrease. The local autocorrelation analysis shows that the population distribution is relatively stable, the Sichuan basin is the core area of population distribution, the mountainous plateau area of western Sichuan is the sparsely populated area, the Chengdu plain and its adjacent areas, Zigong in south Sichuan, Nanchong in Luzhou and northeast Sichuan, Guang'an municipal district is a hot area of population distribution, and the mountainous plateau area of western Sichuan is the cold point of population distribution. (6) topography, climate, mineral resources, historical basis, economic development level and traffic conditions have important influence on population distribution; Economic strength, social consumption, talent quality, economic activity and industrial population structure are important factors affecting population distribution. The average elevation of each county and natural population growth play a negative role in population distribution. Higher per capita GDP and total retail sales of consumer goods can effectively promote population aggregation. Based on the above conclusions, the corresponding policy suggestions are put forward, and the future research is prospected.
【學位授予單位】：四川師范大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：C924.24

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