【摘要】：人口撫養(yǎng)比是用來反映人口老齡化對社會經(jīng)濟影響的重要指標(biāo),是政策制定和有關(guān)研究的重要參考指標(biāo)和研究切入點,但是由于傳統(tǒng)的人口撫養(yǎng)比存在諸多缺陷：一是對勞動力人口規(guī)模的估計與實際不符；二是人口撫養(yǎng)比的同質(zhì)性假設(shè)忽略了老人與兒童、不同年齡老人之間的群體差異造成的撫養(yǎng)負(fù)擔(dān)程度差異。因此,不能準(zhǔn)確反映社會實際撫養(yǎng)負(fù)擔(dān)情況。為了對社會撫養(yǎng)負(fù)擔(dān)有更為準(zhǔn)確的認(rèn)識,本文從消費角度出發(fā),考慮不同撫養(yǎng)負(fù)擔(dān)對象的消費模式的差異,在對家庭消費中老人、兒童、成人消費權(quán)重進行研究的基礎(chǔ)上,以消費撫養(yǎng)比來衡量我國社會實際的撫養(yǎng)負(fù)擔(dān)水平。并結(jié)合具體的人口數(shù)據(jù),模擬了我國部分年份和地區(qū)的消費撫養(yǎng)比指標(biāo),并與傳統(tǒng)人口撫養(yǎng)比進行比較。最后,本文深入分析了影響未來消費撫養(yǎng)比變化的因素,發(fā)現(xiàn)：人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)、不同撫養(yǎng)對象群體的消費權(quán)重、老年人的居住安排和收入水平是影響未來消費撫養(yǎng)比變化的主要原因,未來老年消費撫養(yǎng)比水平將隨著老年人口規(guī)模的增大和老年人口的消費潛力被激發(fā)而驟增,未來的老年撫養(yǎng)負(fù)擔(dān)壓力非常之大。從消費撫養(yǎng)比角度出發(fā),我們對應(yīng)對未來養(yǎng)老負(fù)擔(dān)的加劇提出了一些建議：一是要制定適度的社會保障水平,引導(dǎo)老年人口合理消費；二是鼓勵家庭養(yǎng)老模式,減少養(yǎng)老成本；三是利用國際人力資源,轉(zhuǎn)移養(yǎng)老負(fù)擔(dān)。
[Abstract]:The dependency ratio of the population is an important indicator used to reflect the socio-economic impact of population ageing and an important reference indicator and research entry point for policy formulation and related research. However, there are many defects in the traditional population dependency ratio: first, the estimation of the size of the labor force does not match the actual situation; second, the homogeneity of the population dependency ratio neglects the elderly and children. The degree of dependency burden caused by different age group difference is different. Therefore, can not accurately reflect the actual burden of social support. In order to have a more accurate understanding of the burden of social support, this paper, from the perspective of consumption, takes into account the different consumption patterns of different dependent burden objects, on the basis of the study of the consumption weight of the elderly, children and adults in family consumption. In terms of consumption dependency ratio to measure the level of the actual burden of our society. Combined with the specific population data, the paper simulates the consumption dependency ratio index in some years and regions of China, and compares it with the traditional population dependency ratio. Finally, this paper deeply analyzes the factors that affect the future consumption dependency ratio, and finds that: the age structure of population, the consumption weight of different dependency groups, The living arrangement and income level of the elderly are the main reasons that affect the change of the consumption dependency ratio in the future. With the increase of the size of the elderly population and the stimulation of the consumption potential of the elderly population, the level of the consumption dependency ratio of the elderly will increase sharply in the future. The burden of future old age support is very great. From the point of view of consumption and dependency ratio, we put forward some suggestions to deal with the aggravation of the future burden of the aged: first, to establish a moderate level of social security to guide the elderly population to consume reasonably; second, to encourage the family to provide for the aged and to reduce the cost of providing for the aged; Third, the use of international human resources, the transfer of pension burden.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：復(fù)旦大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：C924.24

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