【摘要】：本文結(jié)合我國計劃經(jīng)濟時期人口健康狀況大幅改善以及計劃生育政策實施背景，以人口轉(zhuǎn)型過程中我國居民微觀個體教育投資以及消費儲蓄等行為為切入點，試圖探索這一人口轉(zhuǎn)型過程對我國宏觀經(jīng)濟運行的影響。本文分析從我國人口轉(zhuǎn)型過程中所呈現(xiàn)出來的特征這一宏觀視角出發(fā)，利用縣級層面數(shù)據(jù)分析人口特征變量變動的微觀結(jié)構(gòu)參數(shù)特征以及人口對經(jīng)濟影響的統(tǒng)計規(guī)律，，在此基礎(chǔ)上建立宏觀經(jīng)濟模型細致分析我國人口轉(zhuǎn)型對宏觀經(jīng)濟運行的影響機制，遵循“宏觀現(xiàn)象出發(fā)——分析微觀結(jié)構(gòu)參數(shù)基礎(chǔ)——建立宏觀模型”的經(jīng)濟學(xué)分析思路。本文同時采用了數(shù)理統(tǒng)計、應(yīng)用計量經(jīng)濟學(xué)以及理論宏觀經(jīng)濟學(xué)的分析和建模方法，借鑒人口學(xué)與經(jīng)濟學(xué)分析問題的不同思路和視角，對上述問題進行分析和研究。 本文經(jīng)驗研究表明預(yù)期壽命、人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)等對經(jīng)濟增長率具有統(tǒng)計顯著的影響，且我國不同地區(qū)人口轉(zhuǎn)型進程不同步導(dǎo)致的人口特征因素是影響我國地區(qū)經(jīng)濟發(fā)展不平衡的重要因素；與此同時，利用正態(tài)分布和Weibull分布都可以對影響我國人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)的關(guān)鍵因素——人口死亡年齡概率分布——做出非常好的模擬和預(yù)測；此外，我國改革開放以來有利于經(jīng)濟增長的人口轉(zhuǎn)型以及之后的人口老齡化趨勢均與我國人口死亡年齡概率分布右移且方差變小的集中化趨勢密切相關(guān)。之后的理論模型分別對經(jīng)驗研究中預(yù)期壽命影響經(jīng)濟增長的動態(tài)傳導(dǎo)路徑、我國近年來居高不下的儲蓄率和投資率是否合理以及人口特征變量影響我國宏觀經(jīng)濟運行的渠道進行了模擬和分析。結(jié)論指出首先預(yù)期壽命影響經(jīng)濟增長的內(nèi)在邏輯是一段時間內(nèi)人口壽命的持續(xù)增長速度對經(jīng)濟增長率有著非常重要的影響；其次，盡管我國改革開放以來的儲蓄率和投資率居高不下，并被認為是推動我國經(jīng)濟高速增長的極其重要的因素，但實際上這一高儲蓄率、高投資率與高經(jīng)濟增長率的現(xiàn)象與我國全要素生產(chǎn)率大幅提高以及有利于經(jīng)濟增長的人口轉(zhuǎn)型等宏觀經(jīng)濟社會背景密切相關(guān)，從而意味著到目前為止我國高儲蓄率和高投資率是與我國特定宏觀背景相適應(yīng)的合理水平；本文最后部分將理論模型擴展為多期世代交替模型，對我國人口轉(zhuǎn)型過程中的人口特征變量進行了校準(zhǔn)和分析，在此基礎(chǔ)上考察了人口轉(zhuǎn)型對我國勞動生產(chǎn)率的影響，從而部分地揭示了“全要素生產(chǎn)率”的含義，并綜合分析了人口因素影響我國經(jīng)濟增長的各種可能的渠道及機制。
[Abstract]:Based on the background of population health improvement and the implementation of family planning policy during the planned economy period, this paper takes the micro-individual education investment and consumption savings as the starting point in the process of population transition. This paper attempts to explore the impact of this population transition process on the macroeconomic operation of China. From the macro perspective of the characteristics in the process of population transition in China, this paper analyzes the characteristics of the microstructural parameters of the change of population characteristic variables and the statistical law of the impact of the population on the economy by using the data at the county level. On this basis, the macroeconomic model is established to analyze the influence mechanism of the population transition on the macro-economic operation in detail, following the economic analysis idea of "starting from the macro phenomenon-the basis of analyzing the microstructural parameters-establishing the macro model". At the same time, this paper uses mathematical statistics, econometrics and theoretical macroeconomics analysis and modeling methods, using different ideas and perspectives of demography and economics analysis to analyze and study the above problems. This empirical study shows that life expectancy and age structure have statistically significant effects on the economic growth rate. And the population characteristic factors caused by the different regions' population transition process are the important factors that affect the imbalance of the regional economic development in our country, at the same time, Using both normal distribution and Weibull distribution, we can make a very good simulation and prediction of the key factor that affects the age structure of the population in China-the probability distribution of population death age. Since the reform and opening to the outside world, the population transition that is favorable to economic growth and the trend of population aging after reform and opening up in China are closely related to the centralization of the probability distribution of death age and the decrease of variance in China. The following theoretical models are used to analyze the dynamic conduction paths in empirical studies where life expectancy affects economic growth. Whether the high savings rate and investment rate are reasonable in recent years and whether the population characteristic variables influence the macroeconomic operation of our country are simulated and analyzed. The conclusion is that the inherent logic that life expectancy affects economic growth is that the sustained growth rate of population life expectancy has a very important effect on economic growth rate over a period of time. Although the savings rate and investment rate in China have remained high since the reform and opening up, and are considered to be extremely important factors in promoting the rapid economic growth of our country, in fact, this high savings rate, The phenomenon of high investment rate and high economic growth rate is closely related to the macro-economic and social background, such as the substantial increase in total factor productivity and the population transformation that is conducive to economic growth. This means that the high savings rate and high investment rate in China are reasonable levels suitable for the specific macro background of our country. In the last part of this paper, the theoretical model is extended to the multi-period intergenerational model. Based on the calibration and analysis of the population characteristic variables in the process of population transition in China, this paper examines the impact of population transition on China's labor productivity, thus partially revealing the meaning of "total factor productivity". The possible channels and mechanisms of population factors affecting China's economic growth are also analyzed.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：清華大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2011
【分類號】：F224;F123.16;C924.2

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