本文選題：人口預(yù)測(cè) + 生態(tài)足跡��； 參考：《南京林業(yè)大學(xué)》2010年碩士論文

【摘要】： 本文以南京市人口承載力問題為研究對(duì)象,在探討南京市人口發(fā)展的現(xiàn)狀的基礎(chǔ)上,采用人口分要素的方法對(duì)南京市未來10年人口總量進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè),同時(shí)利用生態(tài)足跡模型對(duì)南京市人口與資源環(huán)境協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展問題進(jìn)行分析和評(píng)價(jià),并結(jié)合當(dāng)?shù)氐馁Y源、環(huán)境及經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀,運(yùn)用耕地資源人口承載力、水資源人口承載力和經(jīng)濟(jì)適度人口的方法,建立了相關(guān)的分析模型,對(duì)南京市未來10年人口承載力進(jìn)行了預(yù)測(cè)和分析評(píng)價(jià),提出人口與資源環(huán)境協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展的對(duì)策和建議。本文的主要結(jié)論如下： 第一、預(yù)測(cè)未來人口發(fā)展?fàn)顩r的方法較多,本文采用人口分要素預(yù)測(cè)方法,預(yù)測(cè)出南京市2010年人口達(dá)822萬人,2020年達(dá)1047萬人。 第二、對(duì)南京市人口與資源環(huán)境協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展問題進(jìn)行分析和評(píng)價(jià),結(jié)果顯示：南京市的人均生態(tài)承載力呈下降趨勢(shì),而人均生態(tài)足跡上升趨勢(shì)更為明顯,人均生態(tài)赤字顯著增長,南京市處于不可持續(xù)發(fā)展?fàn)顟B(tài)；人口總量的過快增長和主要由能源消費(fèi)引起生態(tài)赤字是導(dǎo)致南京市人口與資源環(huán)境不協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展的直接原因,且未來這種趨勢(shì)還將繼續(xù)； 第三、通過資源綜合承載力和經(jīng)濟(jì)適度人口的計(jì)算和研究分析,最后綜合預(yù)測(cè)出2010年南京市適度人為680萬人,2020年為627萬人；2010年、2020年南京市人口、經(jīng)濟(jì)、資源環(huán)境協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展的適度人口規(guī)模小于預(yù)測(cè)人口規(guī)模,未來人口總量對(duì)資源環(huán)境承載力的壓力依然很大。
[Abstract]:This paper takes the population carrying capacity of Nanjing as the research object, on the basis of discussing the present situation of the population development in Nanjing, using the method of population sub-factor to forecast the total population of Nanjing in the next 10 years. At the same time, the ecological footprint model is used to analyze and evaluate the coordinated development of population and resources and environment in Nanjing, and combined with the current situation of local resources, environment and economic development, the population carrying capacity of cultivated land resources is used. Based on the methods of population carrying capacity of water resources and moderate population of economy, the relevant analysis model is established, and the population carrying capacity of Nanjing in the next 10 years is forecasted and evaluated, and the countermeasures and suggestions for the coordinated development of population and resources and environment are put forward. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: first, there are many methods to predict the future population development. The population of Nanjing is estimated to be 8.22 million in 2010 and 10.47 million in 2020. Secondly, the paper analyzes and evaluates the coordinated development of population and resources and environment in Nanjing. The results show that the ecological carrying capacity of Nanjing per capita is decreasing, while the ecological footprint per capita is increasing more obviously, and the per capita ecological deficit is increasing significantly. The rapid growth of population and the ecological deficit caused mainly by energy consumption are the direct reasons for the uncoordinated development of population and resource environment in Nanjing, and this trend will continue in the future. Thirdly, through the calculation, research and analysis of the comprehensive carrying capacity of resources and the moderate population of the economy, it is finally forecasted that the moderate population of Nanjing was 6.8 million in 2010 and 6.27 million in 2020, the population of Nanjing in 2010, 2020, and the economy. The moderate population scale of the coordinated development of resources and environment is smaller than the predicted population scale, and the pressure on the carrying capacity of resources and environment is still great in the future.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京林業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2010
【分類號(hào)】：C924.24

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